1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to the DLD database, the Elitz 3 By Danube project is officially registered in the Al Barsha South Fourth area, master project Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC). For the analysis we use the DLD name — ‘Elitz 3 By Danube’.
Data structure: for sales of 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) there is a sufficient number of transactions in the building itself and a very large sample across the area/master project. For leasing, there are no relevant target contracts in the open data either for the building or even for the master project, so analysis of rental rates and yields is only possible at the Al Barsha South Fourth area level.
2. Liquidity of the asset and the area
Over the past 12 months, 20 transactions for 1-bedroom apartments with confirmed price per m² have been registered in Elitz 3 By Danube. The number of 1-bedroom transactions in Al Barsha South Fourth (JVC) exceeds 10,000 for the same period, which indicates high market liquidity in the area. In the rental market, the district is showing steady growth, with more than 20,000 residential lease contracts with correct parameters signed annually.
3. Price and rental dynamics
Average price per m² dynamics for the building (Elitz 3 By Danube, 1BR):
– Q4 2023: 16,600 AED/m² (74 transactions)
– Q1 2024: 16,431 AED/m² (145 transactions)
– Q2 2024: 16,422 AED/m² (27 transactions)
– Q3 2024: 16,948 AED/m² (12 transactions)
– Over the last 12 months, the average 1BR price in the building is 17,480 AED/m².
For comparison, the trend for 1BR in Al Barsha South Fourth/JVC is:
– Q1 2023: 10,775 AED/m²
– Q4 2023: 12,473 AED/m²
– Q1–Q2 2024: 12,510–12,645 AED/m²
Thus, Elitz 3 By Danube (new build, premium line) is significantly more expensive than the JVC average for 1BR: over the last 12 months the premium has been around 22% (17,480 vs 14,320 AED/m²).
Rentals: there are still no rental contracts for the tower or the project in the open DLD database — apparently, the asset is still under construction or has only recently been handed over (which is confirmed by the absence of registrations in Ejari). Across the area, the average rent for all residential apartments over 12 months is 1,029 AED/m²/year; for 1BR (closest analogue — “1bed room+Hall”) it is 967 AED/m²/year (based on ~13,700 contracts per year).
Growth rates: over the past 2 years the average rental rate in the area for 1BR has increased from ~620 to ~970 AED/m²/year, and new contracts in the market are recording further growth (Q4 2024 — above 950 AED/m²/year).
4. Comparison of current prices and yields (ROI)
Current market sale price for a 1BR in Elitz 3 By Danube over 12 months: 17,480 AED/m².
The equivalent figure for JVC: 14,320 AED/m² (ultra-liquid segment, tens of thousands of transactions).
Average annual rent for a 1BR in the area: 967 AED/m² (sample size — 13,700 contracts).
ROI_gross (for the area): 967 / 14,320 = 6.8% per annum.
ROI_net (including entry costs of ~7%): 6.8 / 1.07 ≈ 6.4% per annum.
For Elitz 3 By Danube itself, an accurate ROI estimate is impossible due to the absence of confirmed DLD rental contracts. One can only use the average level for the area as a reference, bearing in mind that a premium new build is usually rented above the market average.
Fair price range to achieve a 7–8% ROI at the area rental level of 967 AED/m²:
– 7%: 967 / 0.07 = 13,814 AED/m²
– 8%: 967 / 0.08 = 12,088 AED/m²
The actual transaction price in the building (17,480 AED/m²) exceeds even the upper bound of the target range (13,800 AED/m²) by 27%, reflecting a new-build premium and, possibly, an ambitious pricing strategy from the developer.
5. Conclusions and outlook
– In terms of liquidity, JVC remains one of the most active districts; the dynamics for Elitz 3 By Danube confirm strong demand for new projects.
– The price per m² premium in Elitz 3 By Danube versus the broader market is very substantial (22–27%).
– Rental rates in the area are steadily rising, but there are still no contracts in the tower itself — actual yields will only become clear once tenants start moving into this asset.
– Area-level ROI is 6.4–6.8% net; for Elitz 3 By Danube the expected yield is lower due to the price premium — payback is roughly 5.5–6% under typical leasing scenarios.
– For investors, the “fair price” benchmark for a 7–8% ROI is 12,100–13,800 AED/m². The actual price in Elitz 3 By Danube is significantly above these benchmarks.
– For buyers: this is more of an image-driven property, focused on quality/newness rather than maximising passive income. For yield-focused investors, a more balanced strategy would be to look for opportunities in other JVC complexes closer to the area’s average price level.
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