ROI analysis of apartment in Avenue Residence 5: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Avenue Residence 5 is located in the Jabal Ali First area, within the Al Furjan master project. This is confirmed by DLD database records: all transactions at this address are assigned to this area and master project.

There have been more than 150 sale and purchase transactions in this building over the past few years; however, no studios (0BR) in Avenue Residence 5 are registered in the DLD at all: only 1-, 2- and 3-bedroom apartments have recorded transactions in the building.

For rentals, valid contracts for Avenue Residence 5 have been recorded over the last 12 months, which allows for a correct comparison of yields.

2. Activity and liquidity

In 2023–2024, more than 80 apartment transactions were registered in Avenue Residence 5 in total, and 65 deals were closed over the last 12 months. This is a fairly high frequency for a single building and indicates good liquidity for a new development. The entire Jabal Ali First area also remains highly liquid, with thousands of transactions recorded annually.

For rentals in Avenue Residence 5, 18 contracts have been concluded over the last 12 months, which is sufficient to make statistically sound judgments about rental rates. Across the area as a whole, there were more than 26,000 contracts over the year.

3. Price dynamics over 3–5 years

In Avenue Residence 5, the quarterly movement of the average price per square metre (AED/m², residential apartments only) is as follows:

– Q4 2023: 13,035
– Q1 2024: 12,329
– Q2 2024: 11,733
– Q4 2024: 15,341 (based on a small number of deals)
– 2025: range 12,900–14,530
– No data for earlier periods, as the building is new

Current average price per m² over the last 12 months: 13,323 AED/m² (based on 65 transactions).

For comparison, the average level in Jabal Ali First for “typical” apartments over recent years:
– 2020: 7,400–8,800 AED/m²
– 2021: 7,600–9,200 AED/m²
– 2022: 9,500–10,500 AED/m²
– 2023: 9,100–11,700 AED/m²
– 2024: 12,000–12,700 AED/m²
– Current 12‑month average: 17,648 AED/m² (reflects a clear shift towards high demand and newer stock)

Important: The area-wide average is noticeably higher than in Avenue Residence 5, which indicates that the building is still trading at a moderate discount to the most liquid segment of the area.

4. Dynamics and level of rental rates

Rent in Avenue Residence 5:
– Building average over the last 12 months: 1,130 AED/m²/year (based on 18 contracts)
– Quarterly dynamics: the latest visible values are around 1,140 AED/m² (Q4 2025), 1,113 AED/m² (Q1 2026).

For Jabal Ali First:
– Average annual rate per contracts over 12 months: 873 AED/m² (26,567 contracts)

The area’s dynamics show a gradual increase: 2–3 years ago the average level was significantly lower (rarely exceeding 700–800 AED/m²).

5. ROI and fair price range

For Avenue Residence 5 (based on market transactions and contracts over the last 12 months):

– Average purchase price: 13,323 AED/m²
– Average rent: 1,130 AED/m²/year
– ROI_brutto (headline yield before expenses): 8.5%
– Taking into account initial costs (around 7%): ROI_net ≈ 7.9–8.0%

For Jabal Ali First:

– Market price: 17,648 AED/m²
– Average rent: 873 AED/m²
– ROI_brutto: 5.0%
– ROI_net: around 4.7%

This means that at the current stage Avenue Residence 5 looks more attractive for an investor in terms of relative yield than the area average: both gross and net income per square metre are higher, driven by a noticeable discount in current sale prices.

Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield according to DLD data (based on the building’s rental level):
– For 7% per annum: 1,130/0.07 = 16,140 AED/m²
– For 8% per annum: 1,130/0.08 = 14,125 AED/m²

The current average transaction price in the building falls within this range, closer to the lower bound, meaning that at the moment (without rental growth) there is no substantial discount to the “fair price”. More expensive deals, without an increase in rent, will be less attractive for an investor aiming for 7–8% per annum.

6. Key conclusions and outlook

– Avenue Residence 5 is a highly liquid asset with stable market interest and a price per square metre below the area average.
– Over the last 12 months, yield (ROI_net) based on DLD data has been clearly higher than for the area overall, due to a combination of higher rents and a relative discount to the area in purchase prices.
– In the near term, price growth potential is constrained by yield: if purchase prices continue to rise without rental growth, ROI will fall below the target 7–8%, which will affect investment demand.
– Rental rates are stable and currently support investor interest when entering at prevailing market prices.
– The entire Al Furjan master project and Jabal Ali First area are highly liquid, which facilitates both a quick sale and efficient leasing of an apartment.