ROI analysis of apartment in Arbor View: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: the Arbor View property (2-bedroom apartments, filtered by building name “ARBOR VIEW” and type “2 b/r”) is registered in the Al Barshaa South Third area, master project Arjan. Sales data only appears from 2024; there were no transactions for this building before that.

2. Liquidity and transaction volume analysis

There have been 73 transactions for 2-bedroom apartments in Arbor View since March 2024 (no earlier sales). For the Arjan (Al Barshaa South Third) area, transaction volumes are significantly higher: in each quarter of 2023–2024 there were between 900 and 1,400 deals, indicating high market activity and sustained demand.

3. Price dynamics per square metre

In Arbor View for 2-bedroom apartments:
– Average price per m² by quarter since the building came to market (2024): 15,900–17,100 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average price was 16,282 AED/m² (based on nine confirmed transactions).
– Prices are fairly stable, with volatility not exceeding 10%.

On average for the Arjan (Al Barshaa South Third) master project, apartments only:
– At the end of 2022, the average price per m² was 10,000–11,500 AED/m².
– During 2023 there was strong growth: in Q2 2023 the average reached 13,051 AED/m², with a peak in Q3–Q4 2023 at 13,800 AED/m² and above.
– In 2024 the price consolidated at 13,500–13,700 AED/m², with growth continuing.
– Over the last 12 months, the average price in the area was 13,998 AED/m².

Comparison: Arbor View 2BR units are currently 16% more expensive than the Arjan area average.

4. Rental data

As of now, the DLD database does not contain a single registered lease contract for 2-bedroom apartments in Arbor View or other new buildings in this complex. For the Arjan master project and the Al Barshaa South Third area there are thousands of active contracts and a broad sample.

Historical rents in the area:
– As recently as early 2023, the average rental rate for apartments was 710–740 AED/m²/year.
– Over 2023–2024, growth averaged 15–20%: in Q1–Q2 2024 the average rate reached 828–854 AED/m²/year.
– Over the last 12 months, the average annual rent in the area was 945 AED/m²/year (based on 9,585 contracts). In Q3 2024 the level was around 865 AED/m², and in the last quarter it rose to about 898 AED/m².

5. ROI (return on investment) and fair price range

Last 12 months:
– Average sale price per m² for 2-bedroom Arbor View units — 16,282 AED.
– Average price in the area — 13,998 AED.
– Average rent in the area — 945 AED/m²/year.

Indicative gross ROI for the area today: 945 / 13,998 = 6.75% per annum (excluding expenses).
– It is not possible to calculate ROI precisely for this specific building, as there are no confirmed rental contracts for it in the DLD.

Adjustment to net ROI: taking into account standard entry costs (7–8% of the transaction price — commissions, DLD, registration), the expected net yield for the area is 6.25–6.3% per annum.

“Investment fair price” range for a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
– For a 7–8% yield at the current average rental rate in the area, the fair price range per m² is 945 / 0.08 = 11,813 AED (for 8%) and 945 / 0.07 = 13,500 AED (for 7%).
– Actual transactions in Arbor View today are significantly above this range (16,300 AED/m²); deals in the area are also closer to the upper boundary of the range or above it.

6. Conclusions on liquidity and investment potential

– Liquidity in Arjan is very high; the number of sales and rental contracts is steadily increasing.
– Arbor View is selling at a clear premium to the area, which is typical for new or branded developments.
– In the long term, without a unique positioning of the project, there is limited upside for rents in the area to grow substantially above 950–1,000 AED/m²/year.
– For an investor buying Arbor View at current prices, ROI is significantly below 7% (based on market rents in the area), and achieving 7–8% per annum would require a substantial discount to current prices.

Recommendation: Purchases in Arbor View at the asking price levels are only reasonable if the focus is on specific use cases (own relocation, long investment horizon, a bet on strong intrinsic value of the project). For a typical investor, entry at current prices looks less attractive than the average level in the area.