ROI analysis of apartment in Lilium Tower: DLD data and real deals — 08.12.2025

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the LILIUM TOWER building belongs to the Al Barsha South Fifth area. The master project is not recorded separately, so area-wide statistics are used for comparison.

For the asset “LILIUM TOWER 1-bedroom apartments”, 132 sales are registered in the DLD database. This is a fairly large pool of transactions, which allows for high‑quality analysis of price dynamics over the past few years. There is no valid data on rental contracts for this specific project and unit type, neither at the building level nor at the area level for 1-bedroom units. For area-level estimates, all residential apartments in Al Barsha South Fifth are used.

2. Sale price dynamics and levels

Sales in LILIUM TOWER (1BR):
– The main bulk of transactions occurred in 2024, with a few registrations in H2 2023.
– The average price per m² for 1-bedroom apartments increased from 13,277 AED/m² at the end of 2023 to 14,643 AED/m² in Q2 2025 (current year partially).
– Over the last 12 months (as of mid‑2025), the average transaction price for 1-bedroom units in LILIUM TOWER stands at 14,922 AED/m².

Comparison with the area (Al Barsha South Fifth, 1BR):
– Overall, the area shows strong dynamics: growth from 11,060 to 16,887 AED/m² over a three‑year period, with a significant transaction volume.
– Over the last 12 months, the average area price for comparable units is higher than in LILIUM TOWER and amounts to 15,619 AED/m².
– LILIUM TOWER is currently 4.5% cheaper than the average market price per m² for 1BR units in the area.

3. Rental rate dynamics and levels

For the building: There is no recorded DLD data on rentals of 1-bedroom apartments in LILIUM TOWER or for the project as a whole. This is due to the building’s new status (handover phase, active sales, lack of a mass of registered rental contracts).

For the area:
– The average annual rent for apartments in Al Barsha South Fifth over the last 12 months was 941 AED/m².
– Over a three‑year period, rental rates in the area have doubled: from 448 to 1,049 AED/m².
– Rental demand is very high — several thousand residential contracts are registered annually across the area.

4. Investment return (ROI) analysis

There is not enough confirmed DLD data on active rental contracts in LILIUM TOWER itself, so it is not possible to calculate a building‑specific ROI.

For Al Barsha South Fifth:
– Current average sale price level: 15,619 AED/m².
– Current average rental level: 941 AED/m².
– The annual gross yield (ROI) for the area is about 6.0% (941 / 15,619).
– Taking into account standard transaction and holding costs (around 7%), the expected net yield will be approximately 5.6%.

Fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum:
– At the current average rent, the fair price for a 7–8% ROI is 13,440 – 11,760 AED/m².
– The actual area price (15,619 AED/m²) is 18–33% above this range.

In other words, to reach a target investment ROI of 7–8%, an investor would need to enter the asset with a substantial discount to the current price or rely on further rental growth.

5. Liquidity and outlook

LILIUM TOWER shows good sales liquidity (over 130 transactions for 1-bedroom units alone in a short period) and price dynamics comparable to the area, but it is still lagging behind in terms of average price per m². Al Barsha South Fifth demonstrates steady growth in both prices and rents, with active investment and rental activity.

The main uncertainty is the lack of confirmed market rental contracts for the tower itself. This is typical for new projects with a predominance of investor and off‑plan sales. Area‑level rents are stable, but at current sale prices the yield no longer looks high — averaging around 6%, and to reach 7–8% an investor will need to look for substantial discounts or count on a rapid increase in rental rates.