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1. Area definition and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, Green Park is located in Al Barsha South Fifth, within the Jumeirah Village Triangle master development.
For 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in this building, the DLD database records around 20 purchased units. In the section with rental contracts for the building itself or for the master project, there is no current 2BR data. A substantial volume of rental activity is recorded only at the Al Barsha South Fifth district level.
2. Market activity and liquidity analysis
Transaction activity for 2-bedroom apartments in Green Park over the past 3 years is confirmed by steady sales in almost every quarter (from 1 to 6 deals per quarter). This indicates existing demand and relative liquidity specifically for this segment within the complex.
At the district level (Al Barsha South Fifth), the recorded volume of rental transactions is very substantial (over 16,000 contracts in recent years across all apartment types), which allows for reliable conclusions about the rental market.
3. Price dynamics for 2-bedroom apartments — Green Park and the district
For Green Park (2BR), the sale price per m² by year and quarter (a clean sample without extreme size outliers) is as follows:
- In 2022, prices consistently remained in the range of 5,000–6,800 AED/m².
- In 2023, there were local spikes and corrections, within a range of 4,900–7,200 AED/m².
- In 2024, a gradual increase was observed, from 6,700 to 7,027 AED/m².
- Over the last 12 months, the average is about 8,279 AED/m², which corresponds to the upper bound of historical transactions in the building.
For comparison, across the entire district/master project (Al Barsha South Fifth, Jumeirah Village Triangle) for 2-bedroom apartments:
- Price growth from 2020–2023 was more pronounced (from 5,100 to 14,000 AED/m² by the end of 2023).
- Over the last 12 months, the average district price for 2BR units was 13,626 AED/m² (almost 65% higher than the average in Green Park).
This indicates a premium positioning of part of the stock in the district and a clear price “undervaluation” of Green Park relative to its surroundings.
4. Rental rate analysis
In the rental contract tables for 2-bedroom apartments in Green Park and across Jumeirah Village Triangle over the last 12 months, no valid contracts were found. Therefore, a direct current rental rate specifically for 2BR in Green Park cannot be determined from DLD.
For Al Barsha South Fifth (all apartments, “Residential” filter, typical sizes 10–1000 m²), the month-by-month dynamics show:
- In 2022, rates were in the range of 496–556 AED/m²/year.
- A rapid increase was observed from mid-2023, reaching 729–877 AED/m²/year by 2024.
- Over the last 12 months, the average annual rate in the district was 949 AED/m².
Note: these are average values across the entire residential stock of the district; the rental rate specifically for 2-bedroom apartments may differ slightly (typically on the higher side, as studios and 1BR units are cheaper per square metre).
5. ROI and fair price range
ROI based on DLD is calculated at the district level (it is impossible to estimate at the building level due to the absence of rental contracts):
- Gross yield: 949 (rent, district) / 8,279 (latest for the building) ≈ 11.5% (as a benchmark for current deals in the building).
- Gross yield when entering at the average district price (13,626 AED/m²): 949 / 13,626 ≈ 7.0%.
Net yield (taking into account initial transaction costs of 7–8%) will be:
- When buying at current building prices: ≈10.6–10.7%.
- When buying at district-level prices: ≈6.5%.
“Fair price range” for a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
- At a rental rate of 949 AED/m², to achieve a 7–8% ROI, an investor should target a purchase price of 11,900–13,500 AED/m² including all costs.
- The actual average transaction in Green Park (8,279 AED/m²) looks very attractive for an investment buyer in terms of potential income (achieving 11–12% gross yield, assuming district-level rents are achievable).
6. Conclusions and outlook
- Green Park is significantly lagging in price behind the district benchmark and newer buildings in Jumeirah Village Triangle as of the last 12 months.
- In terms of rental liquidity, the district is stable, with rising rates and high occupancy, but for this specific building there is no direct data on 2-bedroom contracts over the past year.
- For an investor targeting a 7–8% yield at the district level, a higher purchase price is required; acquisitions at current Green Park prices promise a significantly higher yield than the district average. This may be related to the age of the building, tenant profile, and building management specifics.
Overall, 2-bedroom apartments in Green Park are investment-attractive in terms of current entry prices, provided yield is the main priority. However, the lack of recent rental contracts for the building itself calls for separate due diligence on liquidity and potential internal risks.
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