ROI analysis of apartment in MARINASCAPE: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to open DLD data, the MARINASCAPE building belongs to the Marsa Dubai area and is located within the Dubai Marina master project. The database contains transactions under these filters, confirming the correct identification of both the area and the master project.

2. Data availability and structure

For the MARINASCAPE building there are only 33 sale transactions in the DLD, and not a single transaction for a studio (0 bedrooms) over the entire observation period (there are no studio-type transactions either by building or by project name). Therefore, for studios all further comparisons and analytics are carried out at the level of the Marsa Dubai area and the Dubai Marina master project (the area statistics are more representative).

On the rental side, 6,288 studio contracts have been recorded in Dubai Marina over the entire period, which allows for robust analysis at this level (there are no recorded studio rental contracts for MARINASCAPE).

3. Market dynamics and metrics for studios (area and master project)

Dynamics of the average price per sq.m (studio sales, Marsa Dubai area, last 5 years):
– 2020: a clear range from 30,000 to 42,000 AED/m², with quarterly averages varying significantly.
– 2021–2022: stabilization around 23,000–39,000 AED/m².
– 2023: growth to 44,900 AED/m² in Q1, followed by a gradual decline towards year-end.
– Last 12 months (available figure): the average studio transaction price in Marsa Dubai is 33,212 AED/m².

Dynamics of average rent per sq.m (studios, Dubai Marina, all years):
– 2020: range of 895–1,150 AED/m²/year.
– 2021–2022: steady growth from ~900 to 1,200 AED/m²/year.
– 2023: marked acceleration, 1,329–1,413 AED/m²/year by quarter.
– 2024: continued growth from a quarterly level of 1,519 AED/m² to 1,652 AED/m²/year.
– Over the last 12 months: the average studio rent in Dubai Marina is 1,608 AED/m²/year.

For the MARINASCAPE building there have been no new studio sales in recent years, and no studio rental transactions — the current level can only be inferred by comparison with the area/master project.

4. Comparison of price levels and returns (ROI)

Average studio purchase price in the Marsa Dubai area over the last 12 months: 33,212 AED/m². Average studio rent in Dubai Marina: 1,608 AED/m²/year.

Estimated gross yield (ROI) for a studio at the area level:
ROI_brutto = 1,608 / 33,212 ≈ 4.84% per annum.

Taking into account typical transaction costs on entry (7–8% of the purchase price), the net yield will be approximately:
ROI_net = 4.5–4.6% per annum.

To reach target investment benchmarks of 7–8% per annum, the fair price range for an investor at the observed rental rate is:
– at 8%: 1,608 / 0.08 ≈ 20,100 AED/m²;
– at 7%: 1,608 / 0.07 ≈ 22,970 AED/m².
The current market level over the last 12 months is significantly higher (by 45–60%) than the fair range corresponding to a target yield of 7–8% per annum. Achieving such a yield would require a substantial discount from the average area prices.

5. Liquidity and outlook

The volume of transactions and the number of rental contracts in the area/master project are very high: Dubai Marina is one of the most liquid markets in Dubai. For studios, the rental trend is clearly upward, while in the sales segment both growth and substantial price volatility are observed. For MARINASCAPE buyers/investors, the studio sample is insufficient, so the most accurate benchmarks are at the area and master-project levels.

Investment conclusion: current market prices for studios significantly exceed the level corresponding to a net yield of 7–8% per annum; the safety margin is low, and the market is in the upper part of its historical price range. For a classic buy-to-let strategy, investors will either need to wait for a price correction or use a different investment model. From a marketing perspective, the area is highly liquid, demand is stable, rental rates continue to grow, but acquisition costs are also high.