ROI analysis of apartment in ALEF NOON RESIDENCE: DLD data and real deals

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location:
According to DLD data, ALEF NOON RESIDENCE is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and belongs to the master project Jumeirah Village Circle. The analysis uses only DLD-verified names and hierarchy.

2. Sales dynamics and structure

The database records 82 apartment sales in ALEF NOON RESIDENCE, all transactions relate to residential apartments (Flat), most of which took place after August 2023. Over the past 12 months, 50 transactions have been registered in the building, which is a sufficient volume for a relevant analysis.

Average price per m² dynamics for the building (all apartments, Flat only):
– Over the last 12 months: the average price amounted to 11,878 AED/m².
– Quarterly data shows price growth: at launch (autumn 2023) — 12,000–12,500 AED/m², in spring–summer 2024 — 13,200–13,900 AED/m², with a local dip in Q3 2025 (10,480 AED/m²), followed by a recovery to 13,400–13,800 AED/m².
– Transactions for 2-bedroom apartments are recorded, but their number is insufficient for separate quarterly statistics.

Average price per m² dynamics for the area (Al Barsha South Fourth, Jumeirah Village Circle, Flat only):
– In recent years the average price has steadily increased: from 8,500–9,700 AED/m² (2021–2022) to 13,000–14,000 AED/m² (2024), reaching up to 15,700 AED/m² by the end of 2025.
– Over the last 12 months the average area price amounted to 15,024 AED/m² (around 27% higher than in the subject building).

3. Rentals: structure and dynamics

For ALEF NOON RESIDENCE, 74 lease contracts have been registered over the past 12 months (across all apartment layouts, main type — Flat). Rental statistics are available only from 2025 onwards (a new building, likely handed over or released to the rental market in the last 6–10 months).
– Average annual rental rate over the last 12 months for the building: 1,008 AED/m².
– Quarterly data shows a smooth increase: 881 AED/m² at the beginning of the period, then 980–1,035 AED/m² by the end of 2025.

Across Jumeirah Village Circle (Al Barsha South Fourth):
– Since 2023 rental rates have grown from 750 to 970 AED/m², and in 2025 they have already reached 1,060 AED/m².
– The average over the last 12 months for the area: 1,031 AED/m² for Flats, with a volume of 28,111 contracts.

4. Comparison of market levels and yields

Comparison of current levels for ALEF NOON RESIDENCE and the area:
– Price per m² over 12 months: 11,878 AED/m² for the building, 15,024 AED/m² for the area (the building is significantly cheaper than the area by ~21%).
– Rent per m² over 12 months: 1,008 AED/m² for the building, 1,031 AED/m² for the area (approximately at the area level).

Gross yield (ROI):
– For the building: 1,008 / 11,878 ≈ 8.5% (gross).
– For the area: 1,031 / 15,024 ≈ 6.9% (gross).

Net yield (taking into account indicative upfront costs of 7–8%):
– For the building: 8.5% / 1.07 ≈ 7.9%,
– For the area: 6.9% / 1.07 ≈ 6.4%.

Estimated range of “investment fair value” per m² at a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
– For the building: [1,008 / 0.08; 1,008 / 0.07] = [12,600; 14,400] AED/m².
– For the area: [1,031 / 0.08; 1,031 / 0.07] = [12,888; 14,729] AED/m².

The current price in the building is at the lower boundary of the investment-fair range for a 7–8% target yield, which makes entry attractive for an investor; in the wider area such deals are already taking place above the calculated “investment” zone.

5. Liquidity and outlook

The volume of sales and lease contracts for both the building and the area is consistently high, confirming the liquidity of ALEF NOON RESIDENCE itself and of Jumeirah Village Circle. Prices and rents have been rising against the backdrop of a broader recovery of the Dubai market, with the current ROI for the building exceeding the area average. The share of tenants willing to pay current rates is confirmed by the contract volumes over recent quarters.

Investor takeaway:
ALEF NOON RESIDENCE currently delivers a yield above the area average, while the asset itself is significantly cheaper than the average market prices in Jumeirah Village Circle. This creates an entry point with an attractive yield profile and moderate market capitalization risk. Over a 3–5 year horizon, upside potential remains in line with the current area dynamics, although the density of new projects in JVC may cap price growth. For stable passive income and liquidity, the investor is acquiring at a discount relative to the area market.