1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to verified DLD data, The Grand is located in the Al Khairan First area, within the Dubai Creek Harbour master project. The DLD database records 621 sales for this building. The current analysis focuses on 2-bedroom apartments, corresponding to the “2 b/r” filter for sales and “2 bed rooms” for rentals.
2. Transaction dynamics and liquidity
Over the past 5 years, 2-bedroom apartments in The Grand have shown high liquidity:
– 2020: 26 transactions,
– 2021: 39 transactions,
– 2022: 70 transactions,
– 2023: 81 transactions,
– Last 12 months — 88 transactions.
There is stable activity; the building is in strong demand on the market.
Across the master project and the wider area, the number of 2-bedroom transactions per quarter ranges from several dozen to hundreds (up to 800 deals in some quarters), indicating high demand and very strong liquidity for both the area and the project.
3. Price per m²: dynamics and level
The Grand (2-bedroom units):
– In 2020, the average price per m² fluctuated around 19,700–22,400 AED.
– In 2021, there was a mild decline followed by a recovery to 21,500–23,100 AED.
– In 2022, a short-term spike to 23,100 AED was followed by a decrease, but from 2023 a stable upward trend is observed.
– From mid-2023 to mid-2024 the dynamics are particularly positive: from 23,500 AED to 28,400 AED (quarterly averages).
– Average over the last 12 months: 25,740 AED/m² in The Grand (88 transactions).
Dubai Creek Harbour, Al Khairan First (2-bedroom units):
– In 2020 — 15,000–17,000 AED/m².
– In 2022 — 18,000–19,000 AED/m².
– In 2023 — growth to 22,500 AED/m².
– In 2024 — an average of 24,680 AED/m² (almost 2,000 transactions for the year).
– The Grand is noticeably above the average market level in the area, with a 4–10% premium over recent years.
4. Rental rates and dynamics
For The Grand there are currently no recorded DLD rental contracts for 2-bedroom units (or for the building overall), which is typical for new projects — the rental flow forms with a delay after completion. Therefore, rental analysis is based on the entire Dubai Creek Harbour / Al Khairan First area:
– Average annual rent across the master project and area over the last 12 months: 1,448 AED/m² (4,719 contracts).
– For the “2 bed rooms+hall” segment (comparable to the unit under analysis), the level is 1,425 AED/m² (over 2,000 contracts), with a mid-range spread of rates across the full apartment spectrum.
– In 2020–2021 rents were around 650–700 AED/m², followed by rapid growth from 2022. In 2023 the average was ~1,100–1,200 AED/m², and in 2024 the steady growth continues to 1,300–1,400 AED/m².
5. Price vs rent and yield (ROI)
– The current average transaction price in The Grand (2-bedroom units) over the last 12 months is 25,740 AED/m².
– The comparable figure for the entire area and master project is 24,680 AED/m².
– Average rent in the area is 1,448 AED/m² per year; for 2-bedroom apartments it is slightly lower, at 1,425 AED/m².
– Calculated gross yield for the area and master project: ROI_brutto = 1,448 / 24,680 ≈ 5.9% per annum (in line with market expectations for new projects).
– For The Grand itself, yield cannot be calculated due to the absence of rental contracts, but with high probability the actual yield will be very close to the area average (there is no reason to expect significant deviation from master-project benchmarks).
If standard transaction costs are taken into account (DLD, brokerage, other fees, totalling ~7%), the “net” yield (ROI_net) decreases to roughly 5.5–5.6% at entry.
6. “Fair price” for an investor
To secure a target yield of 7–8% per annum at the current rental level in the area:
– Fair price range: 1,448 / 0.08 = 18,100 AED/m² (for 8%), 1,448 / 0.07 = 20,685 AED/m² (for 7%).
– The current market price in The Grand and the wider area is 20–30% above the level that would be fair for a 7–8% ROI. This indicates a strong premium for new stock, expectations of further capital appreciation, and strong demand from end users rather than purely yield-driven investors.
7. Conclusions and outlook
– Over the last 2 years, both prices and rents in Dubai Creek Harbour / Al Khairan First and specifically in The Grand have been on a confident upward trajectory.
– Liquidity indicators are very strong: in both sales and rentals the area ranks among the fastest-growing in Dubai.
– The yield outlook for an investor is closer to 6% gross, which is acceptable by the standards of new areas with strong capital growth potential.
– To reach a target yield of 7–8%, a noticeable discount to current prices is required, or an acceleration in rental growth (which is possible given the still-maturing rental market in new-build stock).
– The project is promising for 3–5 year investments with a focus on further capital appreciation and gradual consolidation of rental income after construction completion and full occupancy.
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