1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD data, the building AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 is located in the Warsan Fourth area, master project International City Phase 3. All further comparisons and benchmarks are made relative to this area.
There are 95 registered sale transactions for the building, which provides sufficient data for a basic assessment of price dynamics and averages. There are no registered rental contracts for the building or the master project, so rental market analysis and yield calculations are only possible at the level of the Warsan Fourth area.
2. Sales analysis
Transaction volume dynamics
Over the past year and a half, the main wave of transactions in AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 has been in one‑bedroom apartments (1BR):
– The highest concentration of sales occurred in 2023: a total of 70 transactions were registered in Q2–Q4.
– In H1 2024 activity decreased: only 7 confirmed 1BR transactions.
This pattern is typical for new buildings at market launch and during initial title registration by first owners.
Average price per m² dynamics for the building:
– In Q1 2023 the average price per m² was around AED 7,059.
– Then growth was observed (Q2 2023 — AED 8,717). In Q3–Q4 2023 prices stabilised at AED 8,200–8,400/m².
– At the beginning of 2024 there was some decline followed by recovery (from AED 6,490/m² in Q1 2024 to AED 8,635/m² in Q2 2024).
– The average price per m² for these transactions over the last 12 months is AED 9,440/m² for the building (AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3, 1BR).
Comparable figures for the Warsan Fourth area strongly correlate with the building’s dynamics, but the overall price level is slightly higher:
– Over the last 12 months the average price for 1BR in the area is AED 9,702/m².
Overall, intra‑quarter and intra‑year fluctuations for the building and the area are similar, indicating a high level of market integration of the building within the area context.
3. Rental analysis
For the specific building AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 and the master project International City Phase 3, DLD has no valid rental contracts for the entire observation period, including the last 12 months. At the Warsan Fourth area level, the volume of rental transactions is very high (tens of thousands over recent years), which indicates strong demand and high liquidity in the rental market.
Average annual rental rate per m² dynamics in the area:
– Until 2022, rates were in the range of AED 500–550/m² per year.
– In 2023 growth was recorded: by the end of the year there was a spike to an abnormally high level (Q4 2023 — AED 898/m²), which may be explained by temporary effects or sample structure distortions.
– In 2024 a return to more sustainable levels is expected: the average rate over the last 12 months is about AED 755/m² per year (at the area level).
Important: this figure is averaged across all residential contracts in the area. There are no reliable DLD figures specifically for one‑bedroom apartments in the building or even in the master project.
4. Comparative analysis and ROI
Comparison of purchase price and rental rate over the last 12 months (Warsan Fourth area):
– Average 1BR purchase price per m² — AED 9,702 (area), AED 9,440 (building).
– Average annual rent per m² — AED 755 (area).
– Gross yield (ROI_brutto) at the area level: 755 / 9702 ≈ 7.8% per annum.
– For AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 (using area rental levels): 755 / 9440 ≈ 8% per annum.
Net yield, taking into account all initial costs (DLD, broker, registration, vacancy discount — totalling ~7% on top of entry price), is estimated as ROI_net ≈ 7.8% / 1.07 ≈ 7.3% per annum.
“Fair” investment price range to achieve a 7–8% annual yield (based on area market rents):
– Lower bound for 8%: 755 / 0.08 = AED 9,438/m².
– Upper bound for 7%: 755 / 0.07 = AED 10,786/m².
The current price for the building (AED 9,440/m²) is almost exactly at the fair threshold for an 8% yield. No entry discount is required for an investor. The situation across the area is similar.
5. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook
– The volume of registered transactions in AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 and the largely completed initial sales wave indicate an advanced stage of project absorption and strong entry‑phase interest. The area’s liquidity is very high, as confirmed by the large volume of rental contracts.
– Price dynamics: over the year, prices for both the building and the area have grown by more than 10%, but there are signs of stabilisation.
– From a yield perspective, the area remains one of the few segments in Dubai where, at current prices, investors can reasonably expect a market rental ROI of around 7–8% per annum.
– For an investor or seller focused on yield, AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 fully fits within the area’s “fair price” range; there is no need for an additional discount.
– The 3–5 year outlook for the area remains positive, provided demand for affordable apartments is maintained and there are no major disruptions in the rental market.
Without confirmed DLD rental contracts for the building itself, all yield estimates for AL HELAL AL ZAHABY 3 are based solely on averaged figures for the Warsan Fourth area.
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