ROI analysis of apartment in Tabeer 1: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location:
The Tabeer 1 building is located in Al Warsan First, within the master project International City Phase 1, according to DLD data. All analytics are based on this verified location and on using filters specifically for this area.

The database contains a total of 43 sale transactions for 1-bedroom (1BR) apartments in Tabeer 1 — this is sufficient data to analyze dynamics and make comparisons. There are no 1BR lease contracts recorded specifically for this building, but there have been 39 valid rental contracts for all apartments in Tabeer 1 over the past 12 months, which is also enough to draw conclusions on rental rates.

2. Liquidity and activity in sales and leasing

Sales dynamics for Tabeer 1 over the past 3 years are stable, with the number of 1BR transactions per quarter ranging from 1 to 10. The volume of registrations for the entire building, predominantly for 1BR units, is sufficient to assess liquidity — there is no sign of a market collapse or a turning point in investor interest.

The archive of rental contracts for the building is very extensive: a total of 143 residential leases have been recorded for Tabeer 1 over the entire period, and more than 21,000 contracts have been registered in Al Warsan First over just the last 12 months. This proves strong real demand from both tenants and buyers.

3. Price dynamics: sales

In Tabeer 1 (1BR apartments), the average asking price per square meter in recent quarters was:
– 2023 — in the range of 8,950–9,200 AED/m²,
– in early 2024 there is a wide spread, with the quarterly level dropping to 7,350 AED/m² (Q2 2024), but low activity may be skewing the average.
For Al Warsan First (the benchmark for investors):
– During 2022 — 4,900–5,400 AED/m²,
– In 2023 — a sharp increase (from 6,250 to 6,800 AED/m²),
– Over the last 12 months the district average is around 7,180 AED/m².

Current prices in Tabeer 1 are 10–20% above the district average, which confirms a higher class or stronger demand for the building compared with similar stock.

Over the last 12 months there have been no 1BR transactions in the building itself, so the current “price reference point” is taken from the district. The average sale price in the area over the last 12 months is 7,180 AED/m² (2,040 transactions).

4. Price dynamics: rent

For rentals in Tabeer 1 (all apartments, all sizes) over the last 12 months:
– the average annual rental rate is 767 AED/m², with 39 contracts over 12 months. Compared with the district (Al Warsan First, 673 AED/m²), the building delivers a substantial premium (around +14%).

Quarterly rental dynamics indicate steady growth: from an average of 620–650 AED/m² in 2022–2023 to 900 AED/m² and above in some quarters of 2024–2025 (although some quarters are represented by a small number of deals). District rental rates have also grown steadily: from 420–480 AED/m² in 2021–2022 to more than 700 AED/m² by mid‑2025.

5. Comparison of rent and price — yield (ROI) calculation

For the last 12 months we can rely only on the district’s average sale price (7,180 AED/m²) and the Tabeer 1 rental rate (767 AED/m²).

Gross annual yield (ROI, brutto) by formula:
ROI_brutto = 767/7180 ≈ 10.7% (Tabeer 1)
For the district, the same calculation: ROI_brutto = 673/7180 ≈ 9.4%

Adjusted net yield, taking into account initial costs (approx. 7%), using ROI_net ≈ ROI_brutto/1.07:
– For Tabeer 1: ROI_net ≈ 10.7% / 1.07 ≈ 10.0%
– For the district: ROI_net ≈ 8.8%

6. Fair price range (for a target yield of 7–8% per annum)

For the asset and the district:
– Fair entry price for an investor based on the Tabeer 1 rental rate: 9,600–10,950 AED/m².
– The actual district market (7,180 AED/m²) already provides a yield significantly above 8% per annum, and the building itself delivers around 10–10.7% brutto without factoring in vacancy and further expenses.
– Under current conditions, the calculated fair price range for an investor is above the actual market, which, combined with high liquidity, indicates potential undervaluation or an emerging “hot” investment market.

7. Conclusions and recommendations

– Tabeer 1 is consistently in demand from both tenants and buyers; in terms of 1BR prices it commands a stable premium over neighboring properties.
– Rental yield (even after standard costs) exceeds the typical 8% per annum benchmark — this is one of the most attractive buildings in the location in terms of current income potential.
– Over the past three years Al Warsan First has shown confident growth in both sale prices and rental rates, confirming the asset’s potential for long‑term holding and for a quick resale in the future.
– An investor should focus on the current market entry level — at this point the building’s ROI comfortably exceeds the target range. No additional discount to market prices is required to achieve a 7–8% yield.