ROI analysis of apartment in Shams: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD transaction records, the SHAMS building is located in the Wadi Al Safa 2 area and belongs to the Liwan1 master project (project QPOINT LIWAN-R019). All further benchmarks will be based on the Wadi Al Safa 2 area, as confirmed by DLD data.

The database structure confirms that for SHAMS (specifically for studios), 37 transactions have been recorded in DLD from 2020 to date. There are no studio rental contracts registered in DLD either directly within SHAMS or under the QPOINT LIWAN-R019 project, therefore all rental indicators are based on the Wadi Al Safa 2 area.

2. Transaction volume and dynamics for the building

A moderate number of transactions (37) has been recorded over the past 5 years, which indicates a live but not extremely active market.
Each quarter since 2020 has seen a small number of sales (from 1 to 5 transactions per quarter), which is typical for recently completed buildings / small-scale projects. Over the last several quarters, transaction volume has remained at a stable level.

3. Price dynamics per square meter

For SHAMS studios, it is not possible to determine the pricing over the last 12 months — there is not enough recent transaction volume in the sample to calculate an average price per m² specifically for the building.
For Wadi Al Safa 2, based on studio transactions over the last 12 months, the average sale price is 16,870 AED per m².

Looking at the quarterly average dynamics for Wadi Al Safa 2 over recent years, studio prices have shown steady growth: from the 8,500–10,000 AED/m² range in 2022–2023 to the current 16,800–17,500 AED/m² in 2024–2025. This corresponds to an increase of approximately 70–90% over three years.

4. Rental and yield analysis

Within SHAMS or under the QPOINT LIWAN-R019 project, not a single studio rental contract has been recorded in DLD over the past 12 months.
At the Wadi Al Safa 2 area level, the average annual studio rent over the last 12 months is 944 AED per m².
The area dynamics show rapid rental growth: from 520–600 AED/m² in 2021–2022 to almost 950–1,000 AED/m² by mid‑2025.

Important: yield calculations are only possible at the area level, as there is no confirmed rental statistics for the building.

At the current ratio of average rent to average sale price in Wadi Al Safa 2:
• Gross yield (ROI_brutto) for studios is 5.6% per annum (944 / 16,870).
• Taking into account transactional and related costs (7–8% of the purchase price), the “net” yield (ROI_net) is estimated at approximately 5.2–5.3% per annum.

The estimated “fair price range” falls within 11,800–13,500 AED per m² (if an investor targets 7–8% per annum based specifically on confirmed rental data). The current market level is higher — for an income-focused investment it looks overpriced unless supported by additional growth drivers or a unique location.

5. Market comparison and liquidity

Studio market liquidity in the area is stable — more than 2,400 rental contracts and an active flow of sale–purchase transactions have been recorded for Wadi Al Safa 2.
The pace of growth in both prices and rents shows that transactions and rental demand have been steadily increasing over the past three years. However, there is no rental data for SHAMS itself: a potential investor cannot reliably rely on in‑building demand without additional market research.

6. Conclusions and outlook

Stepwise growth in both transactions and studio rents in Wadi Al Safa 2 remains strong; over the last 12 months prices have steadily approached 17,000 AED/m², and rents have reached around 950 AED/m²/year.
The premium to the “fair” income-based price is currently significant, so an incoming investor should consider not only current yield (which does not exceed 5.2–5.3% net at the area level), but also potential capital appreciation, which has indeed been observed in the past but cannot be guaranteed going forward.

Direct profitability calculations for SHAMS or even for the QPOINT LIWAN-R019 project are not possible — DLD has no active studio rental contracts within the building. For any investment scenario modelling for income property in this location, one must rely exclusively on confirmed area-level indicators.

Machine-readable data for charting follows: