ROI analysis of apartment in Prive Residence: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, Prive Residence is located in the Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area and the Dubai Hills Estate master project. The database records more than 310 sale transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in this building, which indicates high liquidity of the asset on the primary and/or secondary market.

2. Transaction and price dynamics for the building and the area

Analysis of transaction frequency shows a sharp spike in activity starting from Q2 2023, which is typical for new buildings at handover — most sales are concentrated within roughly 12–18 months from this point. In subsequent quarters, there is a gradual decline in transaction volume, which also corresponds to the natural life cycle of an asset after the main wave of handovers.

The average price per square meter (m²) for 1BR apartments in the building has been steadily increasing: in mid‑2023 it was around 17,800–18,000 AED/m², in the second half of 2023 and early 2024 it moved to 18,200–19,000 AED/m², and in recent quarters it jumped to the 20,000–22,000 AED/m² range. Over the last 12 months, the average purchase price in the building stands at 21,978 AED/m² (according to DLD data specifically for 1BR transactions in Prive Residence).

For comparison, in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid the weighted average prices for 1BR units over the last 12 months are even higher, at about 23,943 AED/m², whereas in 2020–2021 this figure was at the level of 13,000–15,000 AED/m². Thus, both the building and the area have shown very substantial growth over the past 3–4 years. It is also clear that Prive Residence is positioned slightly below the median level of the area, which may appeal to a budget‑conscious investor.

3. Rental rate dynamics

DLD has no registered rental contracts for Prive Residence either at the project level or at the Dubai Hills Estate master‑project level (neither for the whole building nor for a specific apartment type). However, for Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid as a whole the sample is very large: almost 30,000 valid residential rental contracts since 2020.

In the area, the growth rate of rental prices per m² accelerated noticeably after 2021: while in 2020–2021 the average rate for all residential apartments remained within 500–700 AED/m²/year, in the second half of 2023 – early 2024 it increased to 1,250–1,350 AED/m²/year and continued to grow. Over the last 12 months, the average rental rate in the area is 1,448 AED/m²/year. It is important to emphasize: this is the average for all residential apartments in the area, not only for 1BR units and not specifically for your building, since DLD does not provide separate data for them.

4. Yield (ROI) and fair price assessment

Since there is no verified data on signed rental contracts for the building, it is impossible to calculate the property yield (ROI) specifically for it. However, calculations for Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid at average values show:

– Average purchase price (last 12 months) — 23,943 AED/m².
– Average annual rent (last 12 months) — 1,448 AED/m².

The area’s gross yield (ROI) is about 6.1% per annum (calculated as the ratio of rent to purchase price based on average actual DLD transactions over the same period). If we factor in typical transaction costs at purchase (7–8% of the amount), the net yield (ROI_net) drops to about 5.6–5.7%.

For an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield, the fair purchase price range at this rental level would be 18,100–20,700 AED/m². The current market level exceeds this range by roughly 15–25%, reflecting overall market saturation and demand pressure, as well as capital value growth amid limited supply.

5. Liquidity and conclusions

Prive Residence demonstrated a very high level of liquidity at the launch stage. The main volume of transactions is now behind us, and a normalization of sales volumes on the secondary market is expected. The area is actively developing, and rental demand is steadily growing, as confirmed by the large number of signed contracts. However, for your specific building there is still no data on actual rentals; therefore, all benchmarks for yield and rental rates in this case can only be based on the area level, not on the asset itself.

Over a 3–5 year horizon, the area and the project itself are likely to remain stable in terms of investment appeal, as the dynamics of prices and rents indicate ongoing demand. But when buying at current levels, the yield is below the benchmark implied by a target fair yield of 7–8%. To achieve the desired yield, you would need either a lower purchase price or further growth in rental rates (which is possible, but not guaranteed).