ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Riviera 40: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to open DLD data, the Azizi Riviera 40 building is located in the Al Merkadh area (master project Meydan One Community). The analysis uses only real transactions for this specific building and benchmarking against the Al Merkadh area.

For the selected unit type (1-bedroom) in Azizi Riviera 40, 51 transactions have been recorded. For comparison, the full transaction statistics for Al Merkadh were used.

2. Liquidity of the building and the area

For 1-bedroom apartments in Azizi Riviera 40, transaction activity started in 2021:
– Over the past 12 months, only 3 transactions for 1-bedroom apartments have been registered.
– Overall for the building, there was a sales spike in Q2 2024 (27 transactions). This indicates construction completion or handover of keys – the sales peak is linked to the units entering the market.
– For Al Merkadh, transaction turnover is very high: over the last year there were more than 1,700 transactions just for 1-bedroom apartments, with stable demand over the past 3–4 years.

Conclusion: the building’s liquidity is below the area average, which is explained by its status as a new development and recent completion. Overall, liquidity in the area is extremely high.

3. Sale price dynamics

Azizi Riviera 40, 1-bedroom apartments:
– In 2021–2022, transactions were concluded at an average price per m² in the range of 16,200–16,600 AED.
– In 2023, the spread widened (16,200–22,000 AED per m²), driven by demand fluctuations around handover.
– In 2024, the average transaction price is 16,300–18,400 AED per m², with an average of 17,900 AED/m² over the last 12 months.

Al Merkadh area (benchmark for comparable units):
– Area dynamics over the last 3 years: strong growth from ~17,000 AED/m² (2022) to ~21,300 AED/m² (Q3–Q4 2024).
– Average over the last 12 months: 20,700 AED/m².
– Thus, prices in the building are stable but 13–15% below the area average.

4. Rentals: rates and dynamics

For Azizi Riviera 40 and the Meydan One Community master project, DLD records show ZERO rental contracts for 1-bedroom apartments for the entire period. Even when expanding the filter to the entire master project, there are no results — all rental transactions in the area are concluded in other buildings.

In Al Merkadh, the rental market is well developed:
– The database contains more than 27,000 rental contracts over recent years.
– Average rental rates per m² across all apartment types:
– 2022: range 850–1,100 AED/m²/year.
– 2023: growth to ~1,150–1,350 AED/m²/year.
– Q1–Q2 2024: approximately 1,350–1,550 AED/m²/year.
– Peaks reach 1,550–1,638 AED/m²/year in the latest quarters.

Important: all these rates refer to the area as a whole, not to Azizi Riviera 40 or its master project.

Over the last 12 months, the average actual rental rate in Al Merkadh is about 1,400–1,550 AED/m²/year.

5. Comparison: building vs. area

– The current sale price for 1-bedroom units in Azizi Riviera 40 (17,900 AED/m²) is roughly 13% below the average transaction price in Al Merkadh (20,700 AED/m²).
– Rental rates can only be compared at the area level, as there are no registered rental contracts for the building.

6. Yield and “fair” price assessment (ROI)

Yield calculations are only possible for Al Merkadh — there is no rental data for Azizi Riviera 40.

– Gross ROI for the area: 1,550 / 20,700 ≈ 7.5% per annum (as of 2024).
– After accounting for all entry costs (7–8%): net ROI ≈ 7.5% / 1.08 ≈ 7.0% per annum.

“Fair” price range per m² for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield at current average rents:
– For 8% ROI: 1,550 / 0.08 = 19,375 AED/m².
– For 7% ROI: 1,550 / 0.07 = 22,140 AED/m².

At the same time, the current average price in Azizi Riviera 40 lies within this “investment window”, while the area average is slightly above it. This means that in Azizi Riviera 40, assuming current area rental levels are maintained, it is possible to achieve a typical yield of 7–7.5% per annum, which is in line with Dubai’s investment standard.

7. Outlook for the building and the area

Azizi Riviera 40 is a new residential building at the stage of construction completion or handover, with apartment transactions starting from 2021. Its price/quality ratio is better than the area average, while sale prices are lagging behind the broader market dynamics in Al Merkadh. Market liquidity in the building is lower than in the area due to its recent completion and temporarily low volume of secondary transactions, but as occupancy increases, volumes are expected to grow.

Al Merkadh is a major cluster of new developments with high price growth rates and strong tenant demand: at least until the end of 2024, high demand and stable rental growth are expected to continue.

For Azizi Riviera 40, an investor can target a yield of 7–7.5% with a minimal discount to current prices or even a small premium, provided market rental rates remain in line with other new projects in the area.

Risks: the absence of an actual rental track record for the building complicates reliable forecasting, but the situation across the area is very robust. It should be taken into account that price growth in Azizi Riviera 40 is currently lagging behind the area, which may open up potential for faster subsequent revaluation as the secondary market matures.