ROI analysis of apartment in OXFORD TERRACES: DLD data and real deals

1. Area definition and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, OXFORD TERRACES is classified under the Al Barsha South Fourth area and the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. The analysis is based on this geographic framework.

For apartment sales in this building, the DLD database records 238 transactions, with the unit mix represented by Studio, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom types. No transactions were recorded for 0BR units (“zero”/apartments without a bedroom), which is typical for Dubai’s housing stock, where Studio is usually used instead of 0BR. Therefore, all conclusions are based on aggregated analytics for the building as a whole.

2. Transaction volume and liquidity

Over the past two years, the building has maintained solid liquidity: transactions are registered every quarter (from 2 to 69 per quarter, with a sales spike at the handover stage). Since the beginning of 2024, a stable flow of sales has also been observed, indicating sustained demand for this product.

At the Al Barsha South Fourth area level, thousands of transactions are regularly recorded each quarter, confirming high liquidity and the resilience of this market segment.

3. Price dynamics over 3–5 years (building and area)

For OXFORD TERRACES, the following trend in average price per square metre can be seen:
– At launch (Q3 2022) the average price was around 11,100 AED/m².
– During 2022–2023 the price gradually increased, exceeding 14,600 AED/m² by the end of 2023.
– Over the last 12 months the average price reached 16,771 AED/m², and in the latest available quarter (2024) values above 16,800 AED/m² were recorded.
– There is a clear upward trend: +50% in less than 2 years.

For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth the dynamics were smoother:
– In 2020–2021 — a stable 8,500–9,500 AED/m².
– Growth started in 2022: from 9,600 to 13,400 AED/m² by mid-2024.
– The average price over the last 12 months in the area is 15,185 AED/m².

Thus, OXFORD TERRACES is currently trading 10–11% above the area average. This reflects both its recent completion and the level of concept/finishing.

4. Rental rate dynamics and levels

For rentals in OXFORD TERRACES, the DLD database contains enough data for a statistically robust assessment: over the last 12 months, 58 contracts were registered, with an average rental rate of 1,452 AED/m²/year. This is noticeably higher than the area average (1,039 AED/m²/year), where the number of contracts over the same period exceeds 26,000. Over time, rental rates also show strong growth, staying above 1,400 AED/m² since the beginning of 2024.

Current figures:
– Average rent in the building over 12 months: 1,452 AED/m²/year
– In the area: 1,039 AED/m²/year

5. Comparison of yield levels (ROI) for the building and the area

Based on the average figures for the last 12 months:
– For OXFORD TERRACES: ROI_brutto = 1,452 / 16,771 ≈ 8.7%
– For Al Barsha South Fourth: ROI_brutto = 1,039 / 15,185 ≈ 6.8%

After adjusting for transaction costs (7–8% on entry), we obtain net yields:
– For the building: ROI_net ≈ 8.7% / 1.07 ≈ 8.1% (or / 1.08 ≈ 8.0%)
– For the area: ROI_net ≈ 6.5%

This is a fairly high yield level for the Dubai market, especially given the modern specification of the building.

6. Fair price range for an investor

An investor targeting a net yield of 7–8% per annum would view the fair price range per m² as follows (based on actual DLD data):

OXFORD TERRACES:
– For 8% ROI: 1,452 / 0.08 = 18,150 AED/m²
– For 7% ROI: 1,452 / 0.07 = 20,743 AED/m²

In other words, even at the current price level (16,771 AED/m²), an apartment provides the investor with slightly above 8% net yield, which confirms its investment appeal. If market prices move closer to 19,000–20,000 AED/m², the yield will decline towards 7% per annum.

For the area, the comparable fair price range for an investor (at 7–8% ROI) is 13,000–15,000 AED/m². OXFORD TERRACES is already trading at a small premium to the area, which is justified by its characteristics.

7. Conclusions on liquidity and long-term outlook

– OXFORD TERRACES is one of the most liquid new buildings in the area, with strong activity in both sales and rental transactions.
– Price dynamics show steady growth, indicating strong demand from both investors and tenants.
– A yield at the level of 8% (net 7.5–8%) based on the latest DLD data is an attractive proposition compared with broader market averages.
– Over a 3–5 year horizon, the asset remains promising for investors due to the overall growth of the JVC market and the ongoing development of Al Barsha South Fourth.

Recommendation: OXFORD TERRACES is one of the best modern assets in its segment in terms of the combination of yield, liquidity and capital appreciation potential. Price and rental growth here are outpacing the area benchmark. Current price levels are justified given the quality, with additional upside potential, but a move beyond 18,000–20,000 AED/m² would push yields down towards the market average.