ROI analysis of apartment in Joya Blanca Residences: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Joya Blanca Residences is confirmed by DLD data; the building is located in Al Barshaa South Third, within the Arjan master project. DLD records show 518 transactions for this building, indicating a high sales volume, predominantly in the primary market.

2. Dynamics of transaction frequency and sale prices

The transaction frequency for 2-bedroom apartments in Joya Blanca Residences peaked in Q2 2021, when six deals were completed in one quarter. Subsequently, transactions became less frequent, which is typical for new buildings after the initial wave of primary sales.

Dynamics of the average price per square metre for 2-bedroom apartments in Joya Blanca Residences:
– Q2 2021: ~7,800 AED/m²
– Q4 2021: ~7,000 AED/m²
– Q3 2022: ~8,500 AED/m²
– Q4 2022: ~10,200 AED/m²
– Q3 2023: ~11,500 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: ~11,100 AED/m²

The average price per m² in the building over the last 12 months is approximately 9,230 AED/m².

The sample of 2BR unit sizes in Joya Blanca Residences is concentrated in the 110–135 m² range, with the bulk of transactions in the 111–112 m² segment and an average price of 7,000–11,500 AED/m².

3. Comparison with the market level in Arjan/Al Barshaa South Third

Arjan shows long-term price growth: since 2021, the average DLD sale price for apartments has increased from 8,500–9,300 AED/m² to 13,500–14,500 AED/m² and above in 2023–2024. The district-wide average for apartments over the last 12 months is already around 14,600 AED/m².

Thus, the current price level for Joya Blanca Residences (2BR) over the last 12 months is 37% below the district average, meaning the building is trading at a pronounced discount.

Based on the price structure analysis in the area, the core range for most standard transactions lies between 10,000 and 14,500 AED/m² (excluding anomalies; there are occasional deals with clearly artificial low prices, which can be ignored when assessing the market range).

4. Rental rates and dynamics

At the level of Joya Blanca Residences itself, there are currently no valid registered rental contracts for 2-bedroom apartments in the DLD database. The project shows 0 relevant lease agreements.

Therefore, to adequately estimate rental levels, we use aggregated data for the entire Arjan area, which has high liquidity and a large sample size (more than 46,000 rental contracts).

Dynamics of the average annual rental rate per m² in the area (all apartments):
– In 2020–2021: 550–620 AED/m²,
– In 2022: 590–680 AED/m²,
– In 2023: 710–770 AED/m²,
– In 2024 (current and previous quarters): 828–866 AED/m².

The average annual rental rate per m² over the last 12 months in Arjan is ~974 AED/m².

Rental growth is steady and pronounced, confirming strong rental demand in the area.

5. Investment yield and fair price assessment

Based on district-wide averages (Arjan):
– average apartment purchase price: ~14,600 AED/m²,
– average annual rent: ~974 AED/m²,
– gross yield at district level: ~6.7% (974 / 14,600),
– taking into account all entry costs (7–8%): net yield of 6.2–6.3%.

To achieve a target yield of 7–8% per annum, the fair purchase price range for an investor in this area is 12,200–13,900 AED/m². Joya Blanca Residences (2BR) is trading significantly cheaper, around 9,230 AED/m², which may provide a potential gross yield above 10%, assuming occupancy at prevailing market rents.

It is not possible to calculate the actual yield for this building without confirmed rental contracts: this is the key risk, linked to the need to verify rental liquidity in this specific property.

6. Liquidity and area outlook

The combined volume of sales and rentals in Arjan/Al Barshaa South Third is very high, with positive dynamics in both sale prices and rental rates. Joya Blanca Residences has been successfully sold out in the primary market; the volume of secondary transactions and the absence of rental data are a known feature of newly completed complexes.

The potential yield from purchasing an apartment in Joya Blanca Residences at a price below the district average looks high, provided that tenants are willing to rent units at Arjan market rates. Before purchasing, it is advisable to verify actual rental listings specifically in this complex to recalculate the yield potential.

7. Conclusions for the investor

– Joya Blanca Residences (2BR) is trading significantly below the average price level in Arjan.
– The established market yield for the area is ~6.7% gross, 6.2% net.
– The potential yield for an individual apartment may be higher if the achievable rental rate is at least in line with the Arjan level (974 AED/m²).
– The investment risk lies in the absence of reliable statistics on rental contracts for this building.
– The area is on a long-term upward trend, liquidity is high, and growth prospects support the attractiveness of discounted purchases.
– For a final investment decision, it is important to confirm the actual rental performance of an apartment in Joya Blanca Residences relative to the district level.