1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, Joya Blanca Residences is located in Al Barshaa South Third, within the Arjan master project. In the Joya Blanca Residences database, there are recorded sales of 1-bedroom (1BR) apartments, with more than 250 registered transactions for this type, which allows for statistically relevant conclusions for the building.
2. Sales transactions analysis
Frequency and dynamics of transactions:
– The main volume of 1BR transactions in this building occurred in 2021 (especially in Q2, which is typical for handover properties and bulk-sell deals), however sales are still ongoing, indicating adequate demand and the presence of a secondary market.
– Over the past 12 months, there have been enough transactions in the building to analyse the current price level.
Price dynamics and levels:
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price for 1BR apartments in Joya Blanca Residences amounted to 12,740 AED/m².
– The area benchmark (Al Barshaa South Third – Arjan) for the same period shows a higher average price: 14,663 AED/m².
– Over the past 3 years, the building has demonstrated a steady increase in the average price per square metre: from 8,000 AED/m² (2021) to 13,000+ AED/m² in 2024. A similar positive trend is observed across the area, although the growth rate for the area as a whole is higher.
3. Rental market analysis
Availability and structure of lease contracts:
– For Joya Blanca Residences, and even for the Arjan master project as a whole, there have been no valid (DLD) 1BR rental contracts registered since the building was completed, which is typical for new projects at the handover stage or with a high share of owner-occupiers.
– At the wider Al Barshaa South Third area level, a large number of rental contracts have been concluded over the past 12 months, which allows us to use the area benchmark.
Rental rate dynamics:
– The average rental rate in the area over the past 12 months is 950 AED/m² per year for residential apartments.
– Dynamics: rental rates in the area have also been growing steadily, from 750 AED/m² at the end of 2023 to 800–950 AED/m² in 2024.
4. Comparison of purchase price and rent, ROI calculation
– Sale price for Joya Blanca Residences 1BR – 12,740 AED/m² (building level), area – 14,663 AED/m².
– Average rental rate (area level): 950 AED/m²/year.
– Annual gross ROI at the area level: 950 / 14,663 ≈ 6.5% brutto (for Al Barshaa South Third/Arjan).
– For Joya Blanca Residences it is not yet possible to calculate a real, building-specific ROI, as there are no confirmed rental deals; the calculation can only be done for the area as a whole.
– After accounting for initial acquisition costs (7–8%, including DLD fees and brokerage commission), the net yield decreases to around 6.0–6.1% per year.
“Fair price” range for a target yield of 7–8% (based on area-level rents):
– Fair-price range per m²: 11,900–13,570 AED/m² (950 divided by 0.08 and 0.07)
– The current average price of an apartment in Joya Blanca Residences is closer to the lower boundary of this range, which is a positive differentiator versus the area (where current prices are 1.5–2 thousand AED/m² higher).
– In practice, at the area level, achieving a 7–8% annual yield usually requires a 7–20% discount to the average market price. However, Joya Blanca Residences is already trading significantly below neighbouring Arjan developments, which reduces the risk of overpaying for an investor.
5. Liquidity and investor conclusions
– 1BR units in Joya Blanca Residences have been actively transacted over the past 3 years; liquidity is high for a relatively new building.
– The Al Barshaa South Third (Arjan) area shows stable demand, with price growth of 25–35% since 2021 and the formation of an active rental market.
– The building is selling below comparable properties in the area, which supports faster resale and reduces the risk of financial drawdown while searching for a tenant.
– At the same time, there is still no DLD-confirmed rental income track record specifically for Joya Blanca Residences 1BR units. Investors should rely on area-level indicators, while keeping in mind that yield conclusions are averaged and indicative.
– The asset’s outlook is assessed as positive: further capital appreciation is possible, provided that the area continues to be built out and the local infrastructure develops.
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