ROI analysis of apartment in Island Park II: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Island Park II belongs to the Al Khairan First area, within the Dubai Creek Harbour master project. This definition is taken directly from the DLD transactions database based on the presence of registered deals for the building (matching by building name).

2. Volume of transactions and rental contracts

For Island Park II, 159 transactions with two-bedroom apartments (2 b/r) have been recorded over the past few years. Distribution by year: 2022 — 66 transactions, 2023 — 19, 2024 — 39 (as of today), 2025 — 35 (may include recalculated forward deals). Transactions have been taking place regularly since 2022, which indicates sufficient liquidity at the building level.

In the DLD rental contracts database for this building or the master project, there are currently no registered residential leases in the “2 bed rooms” segment for two-bedroom apartments. This is typical for new buildings at the handover/initial occupancy stage. Across Al Khairan First as a whole, there are plenty of rental contracts (over 18,000 residential contracts with confirmed area and amount in recent years).

3. Price dynamics and levels for 2-bedroom apartments

3.1 Island Park II
The average sale price per m² (two-bedroom units) has shown the following trend (by completed quarters, excluding future periods):
– Q3–Q4 2022: 17,770–17,670 AED/m²
– Q3–Q4 2023: 19,900–22,090 AED/m²
– Q1–Q2 2024: 22,735–23,288 AED/m²

Average price per m² over the last 12 months: 19,697 AED/m² for the building.

There is a stable positive trend from the moment the project entered the market. Growth rates exceeded the overall pace for the area in 2022–2023, but have slowed in recent months.

3.2 Area benchmark (Al Khairan First, two-bedroom apartments only)
– 2022, Q3–Q4: 17,880–18,300 AED/m²
– 2023, Q3–Q4: 22,000–20,310 AED/m²
– 2024, Q1–Q2: 22,140–23,180 AED/m²

12‑month average: 24,477 AED/m² for the area — noticeably higher than in Island Park II.

4. Rental rates and dynamics

4.1 For Island Park II and the Dubai Creek Harbour master project, no two-bedroom apartments with registered rentals over the last 12 months were found in the database. Accordingly, it is not possible to use a specific rental benchmark for this building.

4.2 In Al Khairan First, across all residential apartments, the following levels of annual rent per m² have been recorded (according to DLD):
– Dynamics from 2022 to 2024: from 760 AED/m² at the beginning of 2022 to 1,308–1,398 AED/m² in Q2–Q4 2024.
– Over the last 12 months, the area-wide average: 1,448 AED/m² per year.

Over the past 3–4 years, rental rates have been steadily increasing, with the peak reached in the current year.

5. ROI and fair price range for an investor

5.1 ROI can only be calculated at the area level (Al Khairan First), as this is where valid and representative data is available simultaneously for both prices and rents:
– Current average price per m² in the area (2-bedroom units): 24,477 AED/m² (last 12 months)
– Average rent per m²: 1,448 AED/m² per year.

Gross ROI for the area is around 5.9% per annum (1,448 / 24,477).

Taking into account transaction costs of 7–8% (taxes, commissions, etc.), the effective yield (net ROI) is estimated at 5.5–5.7% per annum.

Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
– Minimum acceptable price: 1,448 / 0.08 = 18,100 AED/m²
– Maximum: 1,448 / 0.07 = 20,685 AED/m²

This means that purchasing a two-bedroom apartment at prices above ~20,700 AED/m² is not economically justified if the goal is to achieve a 7–8% yield. The current market level in the area is above this “investment‑fair” threshold.

For Island Park II itself, the average price per m² is below the area level (19,697 AED/m² versus 24,477 AED/m²), but without confirmed rental data specifically for this building, it is impossible to draw conclusions about the actual yield.

6. Conclusions and outlook

– Island Park II is liquid in terms of transactions, with stable activity observed, but the bulk of sales falls in 2022–2024.
– The price per m² for two-bedroom apartments is slightly below the level of Al Khairan First, which may be due to the recent completion of construction and the lack of an extensive rental track record.
– As of the analysis date, there are no DLD-registered rental contracts for two-bedroom units in this building or the master project, which prevents calculating actual yield at the building level.
– At the area level, investor yield (based on available data) is estimated at 5.5–5.9% per annum gross–net, which is below the target 7–8% without an additional discount.
– For a conservative investor, the fair purchase price range is no more than 18,100–20,700 AED/m² (assuming a target yield of 7–8%). Current market prices in the area exceed this level.
– The area as a whole is developing dynamically; sales and rental volumes and prices have grown significantly over the past three years, but achieving yields above 7% is challenging at current price levels.