ROI analysis of apartment in Empire Residence: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: in the DLD database, the Empire Residence building belongs to the Al Barsha South Fourth district and the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. The analysis is based solely on actual DLD transaction data, without any assumptions derived from marketing information.

For 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in this building, 25 sales transactions have been recorded, and for rentals of residential units in Empire Residence (without breakdown specifically by 2-bedroom units) over the last 12 months there have been 108 contracts. This allows for a comparable analysis of prices and rental rates, including yield calculation.

2. Sales dynamics and volumes

For 2-bedroom (2BR) apartments in Empire Residence, the following sales dynamics are observed:
– Transactions started to be actively recorded only recently: 3 deals in 2023, 13 in 2024, and 9 already in 2025 (most likely off-plan registrations for future dates).
– Dynamics of the average price per square meter for 2-bedroom units in the building:
– 2023: 10,800–10,900 AED/m².
– 2024 (for completed transactions): 10,500–10,700 AED/m².
– 2025 (future registrations): in Q1 a spike to 13,064 AED/m², in Q4 — 11,664 AED/m².
– It should be taken into account that the database includes future deals (2025), which is typical for the off-plan market.
– In Al Barsha South Fourth (apartment stock, “Flat” type), the price dynamics were as follows:
– 2022: 9,000–9,700 AED/m².
– 2023: rapid growth from 11,200 to 12,900 AED/m² per quarter.
– 2024: prices fluctuated in the range of 12,950–13,520 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months:
– Average price per m² in the building (2-bedroom units): 11,930 AED/m².
– In the district (all apartments): 15,060 AED/m².

3. Rental analysis

– For Empire Residence over the last 12 months:
– The average rental rate (without breakdown by layout, for residential apartments) amounted to 1,149 AED/m² per year.
– The entire rental database for the building is presented only in aggregate for all apartments — no valid transactions specifically for 2-bedroom contracts were found for this period.
– In Al Barsha South Fourth, the average rental rate is 1,039 AED/m² per year over the last 12 months, with a volume of 121,000+ contracts (very high volume, strong liquidity and statistical representativeness).
– Quarterly rental dynamics for the building since completion are mixed (from 960 to 1,270 AED/m²), while at the district level there is steady growth — in 2022 average rates were 620–680 AED/m², and in the last quarters of 2024–2025 they exceed 960–1,140 AED/m².

4. Current yield (ROI) and investment price range

– When comparing the average rent and the average price per m² over the last 12 months for the building:
– Gross yield (brutto ROI) for the building: 1,149 / 11,930 ≈ 9.6% per annum.
– Gross yield for the district: 1,039 / 15,060 ≈ 6.9% per annum.
– Adjusting to net yield, taking into account initial costs (around 7% entry costs): for Empire Residence, ROI_net ≈ 8.9%, for the district — around 6.4%.
– A fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum (based on actual rents in the building) is 14,366–16,418 AED/m². This is above the current average transaction price in the building, which indicates the investment attractiveness of purchases at these levels given current rental rates.
– In the district, for a 7–8% annual yield benchmark, the fair price lies in the range of 12,993–14,850 AED/m² — this roughly matches recent transactions in the district, meaning yields are already close to target levels (and further price growth without rental growth will reduce ROI).

5. Liquidity and investor conclusions

– Both the building and the district show high sales and rental volumes, indicating liquidity and sustained demand.
– There is solid growth in the price per square meter in the building (from 10,800–11,000 to 11,900–13,000) and in the district (from 9,700 to 15,000 AED/m² over 2 years), as well as development of the rental segment against the backdrop of a growing share of new buildings.
– Empire Residence, in terms of purchase price versus rent, currently delivers a higher yield than the district as a whole, which makes this asset attractive for an investor with a 3–5 year horizon: there is potential both for capital appreciation and for stable investment income. At the same time, as prices continue to rise and rents stagnate, yields will decline towards the district market level (~7%).
– The district market is in an active growth phase, but yields at the new price levels are converging with the broader market benchmark of 7–8% per annum. For purchasing Empire Residence or similar apartments, it is advisable to target entry at current or slightly lower levels to preserve a yield premium over the market.