ROI analysis of apartment in Address The Bay: DLD data and real deals — 25.11.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Address The Bay is located in the Marsa Dubai area, within the Dubai Harbour master development. The area is defined according to the DLD database based on an exact match of the building name, which ensures accuracy for subsequent comparisons with area statistics.

2. Deal volume and structure

For one-bedroom apartments in Address The Bay, 182 transactions have been registered. This is a high transaction volume by the standards of new projects. Sales have been recorded since Q3 2022, with peaks in certain quarters (for example, 75 deals in Q2 2023). This indicates strong demand at the early launch stages and healthy liquidity in the primary market.

3. Price dynamics and area benchmark

Average price per square metre (AED/m²) for 1BR in Address The Bay:

– Q3 2022: 30,335
– Q4 2022: 31,837
– Q1 2023: 34,835
– Q2 2023: 39,099
– Q3 2023: 40,339
– Q1 2024: 35,661
– Q2 2024: 32,864

(the maximum was observed in Q3 2023 — ~40,339 AED/m², after which the average level has been declining due to the appearance of resale assignments and gradual market stabilisation).

For comparison, in Marsa Dubai for completed apartments (Residential, Flat, deals >10 m²), the average level over the last four quarters has been in the range of 21,000–27,000 AED/m². Thus, Address The Bay consistently trades at a 30–40%+ premium to the average market level in the area, which is typical for flagship waterfront projects and premium addresses.

Average actual 1BR sale price over the last 12 months in Address The Bay: about 37,373 AED/m².
In Marsa Dubai (area): about 26,753 AED/m² over the same period.

4. Rental and yield

For Address The Bay and the Dubai Harbour master project, there are currently no registered long-term lease contracts with 1BR apartments (or for the building as a whole) in the DLD. This indicates that the property has either been handed over relatively recently and has not yet entered the mass rental market, or that the bulk of transactions is still concentrated in the primary/investment block, which has not yet been converted into rental stock.

For a proper yield analysis, we move to the Marsa Dubai area level (Residential, Flat). There the information volume is high, with more than 110,000 valid rental contracts recorded.

Dynamics of average annual rent per square metre (AED/m²/year) in the area:
– Q2 2023: 1,261
– Q3 2023: 1,086
– Q4 2023: 1,186
– Q1 2024: 1,173
– Q2 2024: 1,219

The current average rental level in the area over the last 12 months is around 1,299 AED/m²/year (across all apartments, typical for the Marina/Harbour cluster).

5. ROI calculation and “fair price” assessment

Based on the actual average price per m² for 1BR in Address The Bay (37,373 over the last 12 months) and the average rent in the area (~1,299), we obtain the gross yield for an investor:

For Address The Bay (building only, rental is not calculated, as there are no valid contracts).
For Marsa Dubai (area): ROI_gross = ~1,299 / 26,753 = 4.9%.

Adjusting to net yield (taking into account 7–8% initial costs): ROI_net ≈ 4.6–4.7%.

The fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield in this area is from 16,200 to 18,600 AED/m². Actual market prices in Address The Bay and in Marsa Dubai significantly exceed this level, so for an investor strictly focused on a 7–8% annual yield, a deal would require a substantial discount or a strategic bet on future capital appreciation.

6. Liquidity and outlook

The transaction volume for the building over two years is very high, confirming both investment and lifestyle demand for Address The Bay. Marsa Dubai also shows high rental liquidity, which makes investments in the broader property pool relatively stable. However, for flagship projects, yields are noticeably below the wider market; the main flow of enquiries is in the lifestyle and premium-branded segment (capital gain and value preservation rather than cash flow).

Over a 3–5 year horizon, the area will likely retain its status as a strong investment destination, especially if rental scenarios expand for new projects in Dubai Harbour.

CONCLUSION: Address The Bay trades at a stable premium to the market and currently does not support a 7–8% annual yield model; the main upside lies in capital appreciation and attractiveness for self-use/lifestyle.