ROI analysis of apartment in WELCOME RESIDENCY: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

The requested asset is WELCOME RESIDENCY, 2-bedroom apartments (2BR). According to DLD, the WELCOME RESIDENCY building is in fact located in Al Barshaa South Third, master project Arjan. The data is aggregated using the “2 b/r” filter for sales and equivalent units for rentals. Important: there are no valid rental contracts (for the entire period and the last 12 months) either for WELCOME RESIDENCY or for Arjan, therefore for the rental and yield block only an area-level analysis (Al Barshaa South Third) is possible.

2. Analysis of transaction volume and dynamics (sales, 2BR)

Over the past ~2.5 years, 130 transactions have been recorded for 2-bedroom apartments in WELCOME RESIDENCY, which indicates a high level of liquidity for a developer project of this scale (actual deals from late 2022 to date). In the last 12 months, 13 sales of 2BR units have been registered. Thus, demand for this segment is confirmed both at the building and area level.

Quarterly dynamics of the average price per m² (WELCOME RESIDENCY):
– End of 2022: 9,889 AED/m²
– 2023: the average increased from 10,560 to 11,233 AED/m² in Q2–Q3, then rolled back to 10,468 AED/m² in Q4
– 2024: growth to 11,957 AED/m² in Q2, followed by volatile values (pullback to 9,987–12,112 AED/m²)
– Last 12 months: average 11,696 AED/m² (13 transactions)
For comparison, across the area over the last 12 months the average for 2-bedroom transactions is 12,633 AED/m² (677 transactions).

3. Comparison with the area/master project

Across Al Barshaa South Third, sales are extremely active (dozens/hundreds of transactions per quarter), which confirms the high investment liquidity of the location. The weighted average price per m² in the area over the last 12 months is approximately 8% higher than in WELCOME RESIDENCY for 2BR apartments.

Price dynamics for 2BR apartments in the area:
– 2022: 9,877–9,924 AED/m²
– 2023: steady growth, peak values up to 11,645 AED/m² (Q3 2023), followed by a slight pullback
– 2024: growth to 12,979 AED/m² by the end of the comparison period

Thus, the price gap between the subject building and the area remains in the range of 5–12% (in favor of the area), which may indicate a certain discount at the building level (both due to the developer and individual property characteristics).

4. Rental analysis (area data)

There are no recorded DLD rental contracts for 2-bedroom apartments either in WELCOME RESIDENCY or in Arjan (i.e. such deals have either not yet been registered in DLD, or the building is predominantly occupied by owner-residents, or it is off-plan/recently completed). The market rental benchmark for Al Barshaa South Third is as follows:
– Last 12 months: average 950 AED/m² (11,171 active contracts)
– For 2023: there was steady rental growth (from 692 AED/m² in Q1 2023 to 997 AED/m² by the end of 2025 in terms of registered contracts in the pipeline)

Actual rental demand is very high: the area consistently records more than 2,000–4,000 new contracts per quarter. This confirms the strong attractiveness of the location for tenants.

5. ROI and “fair” price range

ROI can only be calculated at the area level — there is no data for WELCOME RESIDENCY or Arjan.

Gross yield, based on area averages over the last 12 months:
– Average transaction price: 12,633 AED/m²
– Average rent: 950 AED/m²/year
– ROI_brutto: 950 / 12,633 ≈ 7.52% per annum

Adjustment to net ROI (taking into account acquisition costs of 7–8%): ROI_net ≈ 6.96–6.97%. This level is at the upper end of the market range for new projects in the Arjan/Barsha South location.

Indicative “fair price range” (for a target yield of 7–8%) based on the area rental rate: 950 / 0.08 = 11,875; 950 / 0.07 = 13,571 AED/m². The market price of the last 12 months (12,633 AED/m²) falls within this range, close to a fair price/yield balance without a clear discount or premium.

6. Overall assessment and outlook

WELCOME RESIDENCY is a liquid asset trading at market price. The lack of rental contracts may be temporary (the building was recently handed over), but at the area level there is strong liquidity and rental demand. Current prices in the building are 7–8% below the area average, which may be an advantage for a long-term investor. Due to the absence of rental data in DLD for this specific building, it is not possible to forecast an in-building yield level — ROI can only be calculated at the area level.

Key takeaways for an investor:
– Liquidity is high; both price and transaction volume dynamics are healthy.
– Prices in WELCOME RESIDENCY are somewhat below the area average, which may provide an attractive entry point for an investor.
– Area-level yield is close to the target range; fair value is in line with the market, with no need for a significant discount.
– There is further upside potential for rental rates for at least the next 1–2 years (visible from the long-term trend).
– To assess yield at the building level, we recommend waiting for the first rental contracts in your building and using area values as a benchmark.