ROI analysis of apartment in SquareX Residence: DLD data and real deals

1. Location definition and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the SquareX Residence building is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. This is important for correct comparison with district- and master-community-level statistics.

2. Apartment (studio) sales in SquareX Residence: liquidity and dynamics

There have been 15 recorded transactions for studios (0BR) in SquareX Residence (residential apartments) in the DLD database over the past 2 years. The quarterly number of sales confirms stable demand, especially over the last 12 months (11 deals in this period). The average purchase price of a studio per square metre over the last 12 months based on DLD transactions was 18,172 AED/m² (across 11 sales).

Quarterly dynamics of the average price per m² (recent periods):
– 2024 Q4: 17,868 AED/m² (3 deals)
– 2025 Q1: 18,300 AED/m² (5 deals)
– 2025 Q2: 16,865 AED/m² (1 deal)
– 2025 Q3: 17,923 AED/m² (5 deals)
– 2025 Q4: 19,571 AED/m² (1 deal)

We can conclude that the average price fluctuates around 17,500–19,500 AED/m². There are signs of growth; however, the quarterly samples are still limited by the small number of transactions per quarter.

3. Al Barsha South Fourth benchmark: market dynamics

In Al Barsha South Fourth, the transaction volume for apartments (20–70 m², residential stock) is significantly higher: almost 10,000 sales per year. The current average price per m² (12 months) is 16,262 AED. This means that the level of SquareX Residence exceeds the district average by roughly 12% (relative to the average price in the area).

District price dynamics:
– 2023, Q1: ~11,967 AED/m²
– 2023, Q4: ~14,084 AED/m²
– 2024, Q4: ~14,608 AED/m²
– 2025, Q2–Q4: Growth to 16,900 AED/m².

Prices in the district have also been rising actively over the last 2 years, and the SquareX Residence price range is close to the top of the district curve.

4. Rentals: rates and dynamics

There are currently 0 recorded rental contracts for studios directly in SquareX Residence. This is typical for new/under-construction buildings: units are handed over first, and rental activity appears with a lag.

Across the Jumeirah Village Circle master project and Al Barsha South Fourth district, rental rates are the same: the average annual rent for a studio over the last 12 months is 1,263 AED/m² (based on a large sample of 7,160 contracts). This is the relevant benchmark for yield assessment.

Rental dynamics:
– 2022: 750–800 AED/m²
– 2023: sharp increase to 900–970 AED/m²
– 2024: growth to 1,028–1,150 AED/m²
– 2025: 1,144–1,403 AED/m² (based on all contracts, including future periods; for assessment we focus on 2024–early 2025).

There has been a steady increase in rental rates for the target product (studios) over the last 2 years, reflecting strong overall demand in JVC and adjacent locations.

5. ROI calculation and “fair” price range

Current average purchase price for a studio in SquareX Residence (last 12 months): 18,172 AED/m². Current rental benchmark for studios in the area: 1,263 AED/m²/year.

– Annual “gross” yield (ROI) = 1,263 / 18,172 = 7.0%
– For the district as a whole: 1,263 / 16,262 = 7.8%

Adjusting to “net” yield (taking into account entry costs of 7–8%) reduces the figures by 7–8%:
– For SquareX Residence: ~6.5% per annum (1,263 / [18,172 × 1.07])
– For the district: ~7.3% per annum

Fair price range for an investor (targeting 7–8% annual yield):
– For studios in the master project: 15,800–18,000 AED/m²
– SquareX Residence is currently closer to the upper boundary of the “reasonable” price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield.

6. Conclusions on liquidity, dynamics, and investment appeal

Liquidity of studios in SquareX Residence is good for a new building (15 sales over 2 years; active transactions in the last 12 months). Al Barsha South Fourth (JVC) remains one of the leaders by both sales and rental volumes in the studio segment, with strong positive dynamics in both metrics over 2022–2024.

The price per m² in SquareX Residence is slightly above the district average, which is justified by the building’s newness, but the “investor ceiling” is already being reached — the yield for a holder is just above 7% per annum after entry costs. The district benchmark is currently slightly more attractive for an investor (yield ~7.8%), but the SquareX brand, new stock, and potential further rental growth may gradually push yields higher as occupancy improves.

Overall, the project suits an investor targeting a yield closer to 7% per annum, willing to pay a small premium for a new development and counting on stable demand in JVC/Al Barsha South Fourth over the next 3–5 years. The potential for further rental growth remains, but the discount to the market for an investor aiming at 8%+ is now almost fully exhausted.