ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD records, Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue is located in the Al Merkadh area and within the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. All further comparisons and benchmarks are made against the Al Merkadh area and, where required, against the master project.

2. Liquidity and transaction frequency

An analysis of sales of two-bedroom apartments (2BR) in this building shows high market activity: 292 sales have been recorded in the DLD database. Quarterly transaction frequency has remained consistently high since 2021, with peaks in Q3–Q4 2021, significant activity in 2022–2023, and stable liquidity in 2024.

This confirms strong investment and end-user demand for the asset, with sales occurring in almost every quarter over the past four years.

3. Purchase price dynamics

In Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue, the average price per square metre for two-bedroom apartments from 2020 to 2024 evolved as follows:

– In 2020–2021 the average range was 15,200–16,300 AED/m².
– In 2022–2023 there was moderate growth, averaging 16,000–18,400 AED/m².
– The most notable increase was recorded in 2024: in some quarters the average price exceeded 20,000 AED/m², and over the last 12 months it reached 21,110 AED/m².

The average current price in Al Merkadh for similar apartments over the last 12 months was 20,226 AED/m². Thus, Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue is currently trading at a premium of about 4% to the area average for 2BR units.

4. Rental dynamics

For the building itself and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project, the DLD database does not contain valid, verified long-term rental contracts for 2BR units with correct area and rental value. This is quite typical for buildings that have only recently entered the market or are in an active handover phase.

At the Al Merkadh area level, rental data for apartments (without filtering by number of bedrooms) is available and reflects overall market dynamics:

– In 2021, average rental rates were 650–850 AED/m²/year.
– In 2022–2023, a noticeable increase was recorded: by the end of 2022, the area rate reached ~1,100–1,356 AED/m²/year, followed by an accelerating rise to 1,524 AED/m²/year over the last 12 months.

A separate breakdown specifically for 2BR units is not possible due to an insufficient number of contracts.

5. Comparison of current market prices and rental rates

– Average sale price per m² (2BR, Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue, last 12 months): 21,110 AED/m².
– Average sale price per m² (2BR, Al Merkadh area, last 12 months): 20,226 AED/m².
– Average annual rent per m² (Al Merkadh area, all apartments, last 12 months): 1,524 AED/m².

Comparing these levels, Sobha Hartland One Park Avenue is currently valued by the market above the area average for two-bedroom apartments.

6. Yield assessment (ROI)

Since there are no confirmed rental contracts for the building or the master project, ROI can only be calculated at the Al Merkadh area level and only on an averaged basis.

– Gross yield (ROI) for the area: 1,524 / 20,226 = 7.5% per annum (rounded).
– Taking into account initial costs of ~7% (DLD, broker, registration, vacancy discount), the indicative net yield (ROI net) is about 7.0% per annum.

This is close to the upper bound of the conservative range for a long-term investor in the segment of new premium districts in Dubai.

A fair, investment-oriented price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield (based solely on area rental data):

– Minimum, targeting 8%: 1,524 / 0.08 ≈ 19,050 AED/m².
– Maximum, targeting 7%: 1,524 / 0.07 ≈ 21,770 AED/m².

The actual market price in the building (21,110 AED/m²) is now close to the upper end of this fair range. To confidently achieve an 8% yield, a small discount from the current level is required, or rental rates must maintain strong growth.

7. Outlook and conclusion

– The building has high liquidity, with sustained demand and active sales over the past few years.
– Prices in the building are rising somewhat faster than the area average, but still remain within an investment-justified range.
– The rental market in the area is steadily growing, but note: at current building prices, buy-to-let yields will not exceed 7–7.5% per annum (based on prevailing area rents).
– For a buy-to-let investor, the building remains reasonably priced for now. To reach a target yield of 8% per annum, a purchase discount is needed, or rental rates must continue to grow, or it may be worth considering units priced slightly below the building average.

Important limitation: All rental and yield calculations are based on Al Merkadh area data, as there are still no reliable rental contracts for the building or the master project in the DLD database.