ROI analysis of apartment in Riviera Chalet: DLD data and real deals — 03.12.2025

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Riviera Chalet building is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and belongs to the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. The DLD database records 57 transactions for this building.

2. Transaction dynamics, prices per m² and liquidity

Several spikes in activity have been recorded over the past two years, with the main flow of transactions from late 2023 to the present. Liquidity for the building is good: every one to two quarters there are 10–20 transactions, which is above the average activity level for most buildings in the area. This indicates stable interest and that the asset is relatively new.

The average purchase price per square metre in Riviera Chalet over the last 12 months is approximately AED 16,180/m². The price per m² in Al Barsha South Fourth based on recent contracts is slightly lower — around AED 15,110/m², which implies a premium for this building of about 7% versus the area’s average level.

Historically, the average price per m² for the building over the past four quarters (from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024) ranged from AED 10,600 to AED 15,950/m², and in the last six months there has been growth (up to AED 22,800/m² in some 2025 transactions). In Al Barsha South Fourth there is a steady upward trend — from AED 10,000–13,000/m² in 2020–2022 to AED 13,000–17,000/m² in 2023–2025.

3. Rental and yield (ROI) analysis

There have been no direct rental contracts recorded for Riviera Chalet itself — this is typical for new buildings and for those where most buyers purchase apartments for own use or for resale. Therefore, all rental analytics must be based on data for the master project (Jumeirah Village Circle) and the area (Al Barsha South Fourth), where a base of 117,000+ rental contracts allows for a reliable view of the market.

The average annual rental rate for the master project over the last 12 months is approximately AED 1,015/m², which fully matches Al Barsha South Fourth. The trend over the last two years is positive: back in 2021–2022 rents fluctuated in the AED 600–700/m² range, and by 2024–2025 they reached AED 900–1,070/m².

The estimated gross yield (ROI) based on market prices (for the building) and the average rent in the area is as follows:
– Gross ROI for Riviera Chalet: 1,015 / 16,180 ≈ 6.3% per annum at the average market rent.
– Gross ROI for Al Barsha South Fourth is similar: 1,015 / 15,110 ≈ 6.7% per annum.

Taking into account standard transaction costs (around 7–8% at entry: DLD, brokers and fees), the actual (net) yield will be about 7% lower:
– Indicatively, 5.8–6.0% for the area and 5.7–5.9% for Riviera Chalet itself.

4. “Fair price” estimate based on a target yield of 7–8% per annum

If an investor targets a yield of 7–8% per annum, then for entering “at area level” the fair price corridor would be:
– 1,015 / 0.08 = AED 12,690/m² (for an 8% yield);
– 1,015 / 0.07 = AED 14,500/m² (for a 7% yield).

The actual market price based on Riviera Chalet transactions is higher than these benchmarks by about 12–20% (AED 16,180/m² versus the upper bound of the range), and for the area by 4–5%. This means the price premium is evident, and achieving a 7–8% annual yield is only possible with a substantial discount to the market or with rental rates above the area average, which requires separate justification (for example, due to the asset’s unique status or quality).

5. Investment and demand outlook

Riviera Chalet already demonstrates decent liquidity in terms of sales. The area has shown strong growth in both prices and rents over the last 2–3 years, which supports its investment potential. However, the premium to the area recorded in recent sales in this building is higher than what is justified by standard rental yields. For new buyers, based on current market transactions, achieving a 7–8% annual yield is not feasible without a discount to the market or securing a tenant at a clearly above-market rate.

If the asset is considered with a focus on long-term capital appreciation, Riviera Chalet looks attractive compared to most competitors in the area. For classic buy-to-let investments focused on yield, purchase terms require considerable caution — the market is pricing this asset with a clear premium.

6. Recommendations

For long-term investors expecting price growth, the asset is attractive.
For classic rental strategies, purchasing at current prices will yield 5.8–6.0% (net), which is below the target 7–8%; achieving the desired parameters will require a 10–15% discount or unique rental conditions.