ROI analysis of apartment in O10: DLD data and real deals

Updated: 28 March 20265 min read


1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, the O10 complex is located in the Al Jadaf district, within the Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 master project. The building name O10 fully matches the records in the DLD database.
There are 179 registered sales and 144 rental contracts with valid leases for this building — the dataset for the property is sufficiently complete for a proper analysis of both sales and rentals.


2. Sales market analysis

Transaction volume and demand dynamics:
– From 2022 to date, 179 transactions have been recorded for O10. Quarterly breakdown shows strong demand, especially in 2023 (over 130 deals), followed by a slowdown — in 2024 the number of sales is already lower.
– There are transactions dated in the future (2025–2026); they are likely related to off-plan bookings or post-sales and are not included in the real-time analysis. Only the period up to the current date is used for price assessment.

Average price per m² dynamics for the building over the last 3 years:
– Late 2022 — on average 16,300–17,500 AED/m².
– During 2023 the average price declined: from 17,500 in Q1 to 15,500–15,900 in Q2–Q4.
– 2024: prices stabilized in the 14,700–15,500 AED/m² range.
– Average price per m² for the building (last 12 months): 16,655 AED/m².

For comparison — Al Jadaf district market:
– Until 2022 the average price per m² was lower: 10,000–12,000 AED/m², indicating a concentration of more affordable residential stock.
– Since mid-2023 there has been a sharp increase in prices for new projects in the area: quarterly values exceed 15,000 AED/m², and in 2024 the average price reaches 19,000 AED/m² and above.
– Average price per m² in the district over the last 12 months: 19,881 AED/m². This is above the current level for O10 (O10 is more moderately priced relative to the district benchmark).


3. Rental market analysis

Volume of rental contracts and demand:
– O10 has 144 active rental contracts (valid, residential, >10 m², >1,000 AED per year).
– The number of new contracts is stable (20–30 per quarter since 2023), confirming strong rental liquidity.

Average rent dynamics (per m² per year, properly cleaned from outliers):
– 2023: the average rental rate grew rapidly from ~1,090 AED/m² to peaks of 1,370 AED/m² by year-end.
– 2024: the level fluctuates between 1,185 and 1,300 AED/m²; over the last 12 months the building’s average is 1,304 AED/m².

Al Jadaf district:
– Historically, rents were at 600–800 AED/m², gradually increasing to the current 900–1,030 AED/m² by 2025.
– The average rental rate in Al Jadaf over the last 12 months: 974 AED/m² — noticeably below O10 levels, highlighting the strong demand for new properties and the building’s premium positioning.


4. Building vs. district: market levels and yield

– Average sale price in O10: 16,655 AED/m² over the last 12 months (below the district benchmark of 19,881 AED/m²).
– Average annual rent in the building: 1,304 AED/m² (above the district benchmark of 974 AED/m²).
– On both metrics O10 offers a favorable “purchase price / rental yield” ratio compared with the wider district.


5. ROI calculation (annual yield before and after expenses)

For O10:
– Gross yield: 1,304 / 16,655 ≈ 7.8% per annum.
– Net yield (including all initial costs of ~8%): ~7.2% per annum (adjusted for the actual entry price).

For Al Jadaf:
– Gross yield: 974 / 19,881 ≈ 4.9% per annum.
– Net yield: ~4.6% per annum (after expense adjustment).

Fair investment range (price per m², for a target investor yield of 7–8%):
– For O10: 1,304 / 0.08 = 16,300 AED/m² (high-yield threshold); 1,304 / 0.07 = 18,630 AED/m² (lower bound for a premium).
– The current average price (16,655 AED/m²) lies comfortably within the fair corridor for a 7–8% target yield. No adjustment is required — the building is currently trading at a level that allows for an attractive investor return.
– For the district, the fair investment range is well below the market (12,000–14,000 AED/m² versus the actual 19,881 AED/m²), which explains the low yield of the older stock.


6. Liquidity outlook and investor conclusions

– O10 continues to show a stable flow of transactions and new rental contracts, with high liquidity.
– Price dynamics: after the 2023 peak, a correction and subsequent stabilization are observed, creating a balanced risk profile for entry at current levels.
– Rental rates are trending positively and exceed district averages.
– Over a 3–5 year horizon, the ROI is likely to remain attractive — supported by the project’s premium profile and restrained price corridor, especially compared with overheated new developments in the area.
– For an investor targeting 7–8% per annum, O10 is a rational and well-founded choice in terms of both yield and capital protection.

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