ROI analysis of apartment in Lime Gardens: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, Lime Gardens is located in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid and is part of the Dubai Hills Estate master project. All further benchmarks and comparisons are based on this area and master project.

The DLD database records 447 transactions for Lime Gardens (all apartments). No transactions were found for studios/0BR — most likely they are either not included in the building or are not allocated as a separate category in sales. No rental contracts (for the required type and building) are registered in DLD, so analysis of rental rates and yields is only possible at the level of the Dubai Hills Estate master project and the Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid area.

2. Liquidity and demand structure assessment

Transaction dynamics for Lime Gardens:
Peak sales occurred in the second half of 2022 (183 and 99 deals per quarter), which is typical for the launch phase of off-plan projects. After that, the number of transactions declined noticeably: in 2023 quarterly volumes dropped to 5–12 deals, and in 2024 they stand at around 10–20 deals per quarter. Even at the current stage there is stable, albeit local, secondary-market liquidity.

Across Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, more than 5,500 transactions have been concluded over the past 12 months — this is one of the most dynamic districts for new premium housing in Dubai, which ensures high liquidity in case of exit.

3. Price dynamics and purchase levels (price per m²)

For Lime Gardens:
– The average sale price per square metre over the past 12 months is 26,400 AED/m² (based on 78 transactions, unit sizes ranging from 20–300 m²).
– A year earlier (at the time of sales launch), average prices were 24–25% lower (20,100–21,300 AED/m²), reflecting both launch at excavation stage and capital value growth during construction. In 2024, the average price level in the building has already stabilised in the 24,000–26,000 AED/m² range with a trend towards gradual growth.
– Across Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, the average price per m² over the past 12 months is 24,200 AED/m². Thus, Lime Gardens trades at a premium of about 9% to the district average. This premium is typical for new towers and sought-after locations within Dubai Hills Estate.

District dynamics:
– The area has shown steady growth in average prices over the past 3–4 years: from 12,000–14,000 AED/m² in 2020 to 24,000–25,000 AED/m² in Q2–Q3 2024, confirming its investment appeal and a strong demand phase.

4. Structure and dynamics of rental rates

For Lime Gardens there are no recorded rental contracts for studios/0BR; there are also no confirmed rental transactions at this address at all (and DLD has no contracts either for the building or for the project).

At the Dubai Hills Estate master-project level:
– Over the past 12 months, the average annual rental rate in the master project, based on 3,854 contracts, amounted to 1,590 AED/m² per year (for all residential units), reflecting the upper segment of supply in the area and demand from tenants with high budgets.
– The comparable rate across Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid is 1,450 AED/m² per year (based on 6,463 contracts).

Dynamics:
– Rental rates in Dubai Hills Estate have grown particularly fast over the past 3 years: from 700–800 AED/m² (2021) to 1,500–1,600 AED/m² (2024), with especially rapid growth from 2022 onwards.
– Across the district, the growth range from 2021–2024 is from 600–700 AED/m² to 1,300–1,450 AED/m².

5. ROI based on latest DLD data (all values averaged at master-project/area level)

For Lime Gardens it is not possible to determine yield based on rental contracts due to the absence of rental deals for this building in the DLD database. Therefore, ROI is calculated at the master-project and district level (based on confirmed volumes).

– For Dubai Hills Estate:
— average purchase over the last 12 months — 26,400 AED/m² (for Lime Gardens), 24,200 AED/m² (for the district);
— average rent over the last 12 months — 1,590 AED/m² (for the master project), 1,450 AED/m² (for the district);
— Accordingly, gross ROI:
• for the master project: 1,590 / 26,400 = 6.0% (applied to Lime Gardens, although the building itself has no rental data);
• for the district: 1,450 / 24,200 = 6.0%.

Taking into account typical entry costs (about 7–8% of the purchase price — registration, commissions, paperwork), net ROI over a 1‑year horizon is estimated at 5.5–5.7% for current price and rental levels.

6. “Fair price” range for an investor-buyer (for a 7–8% gross yield)

– With a target yield of 7–8% per annum and given the current rental rate (master project 1,590 AED/m²), the fair purchase price range is 19,900–22,700 AED/m² (rent divided by 0.08–0.07).
– The current market price in Lime Gardens is significantly above this range (~26,400 AED/m²), which is typical for newly completed assets at a growth stage of the market. In other words, a “fair price for a 7–8% yield” is currently unattainable: to reach a 7% gross yield at real market levels, either a discount on the purchase price is required, or a bet on future rental growth.

7. Overall outlook assessment

– Lime Gardens is part of the top-tier segment of projects in Dubai Hills Estate; sales were achieved at high price levels, and secondary-market liquidity remains stable even after completion of the main sales phase.
– The area shows steady growth in both sale and rental rates, demand is high, and secondary-market liquidity is confirmed by an annual transaction volume of more than 5,000 deals.
– At the moment, investor yield is below 6% gross (even taking into account rental growth in 2023–2024), while the “fair price range” for a 7–8% yield is 15–20% below the current Lime Gardens level.
– Without its own confirmed rental contracts for the building, yield and fair price estimates for Lime Gardens are indicative only, with benchmarks taken at the master-project level.
– Investment potential is supported by the prospect of further rental growth within the Dubai Hills Estate segment, but for a conservative investor the current price levels already partially factor in this growth.