ROI analysis of apartment in Legacy by Sunrise: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, Legacy by Sunrise is located in Al Barshaa South Third, master project Arjan, with the official project name “LEGACY BY SUNRISE”.

There is sufficient sales data for the property: 189 transactions have been recorded for all apartments, including a stable flow for 1-bedroom units (1BR). For rentals, there have been no registered contracts in the DLD database over the past 12 months for this building or project, neither for 1BR nor for other unit types. At the same time, at the Al Barshaa South Third area level, more than 53,000 residential apartment lease contracts have been concluded over the past 12 months, which allows us to use this area as a reliable rental benchmark.

2. Sales dynamics and liquidity

For Legacy by Sunrise, the following 1BR transaction volumes were recorded over the last 4 quarters:
– Q4 2023: 11 transactions
– Q1 2024: 21 transactions
– Q2 2024: 8 transactions
– Q3 2024: 1 transaction

This indicates very high primary market activity in 2023–2024, which is typical for a new project in the active handover/registration phase. In subsequent quarters, volumes are likely to decline as the project approaches saturation. Resale liquidity at this stage is high.

3. Dynamics of the average price per square metre

Average price per square metre for 1BR units in Legacy by Sunrise by quarter:

– Q4 2023: 11,384 AED/m²
– Q1 2024: 11,638 AED/m²
– Q2 2024: 12,517 AED/m²
– Q3 2024: 13,926 AED/m²
– Q4 2024: 12,444 AED/m² (data partially based on future/current transactions)
– Q1 2025+: further growth to 14,384 AED/m²

Over the last 12 months, the average price in the building was 14,131 AED/m², exceeding the area average (13,983 AED/m² over the same period for 1BR units). This confirms the presence of a price premium to the market for this project.

At the Al Barshaa South Third area level, a similar trend of dynamic price growth is observed, but with a smoother trajectory: since 2022, 1BR prices have ranged from 9,660 to 13,984 AED/m², with current growth to 13,835 AED/m² in the latest quarter. This reflects the overall positive dynamics of Arjan and the wider area.

4. Rental market

For the building itself and at the Arjan master-project level, there have been no 1BR lease contracts recorded in the DLD database over the past 12 months. This suggests that either rentals have not yet started on a mass scale (typical for new developments), or the statistics have not yet been fully uploaded to the system.

However, there are rental transactions in Al Barshaa South Third, and the average annual rental rate for all residential apartments over the past 12 months amounted to 943 AED/m². This is a relatively high rate, confirming strong and stable rental demand in the area.

Rental dynamics over 3–5 years:
– 2020–2022: On average 550–660 AED/m²/year (gradual growth)
– 2023: 692–757 AED/m²
– 2024: acceleration to 798–871 AED/m² by quarter, with a forecast of further growth.

5. Comparing sales and rentals. ROI and fair investment range

To calculate investor returns, we compare the actual purchase price over the last 12 months in Legacy by Sunrise (14,131 AED/m²) with the average rental rate in the area (943 AED/m²/year).

– Calculated gross yield (ROI_brutto) for area analogues: 943 / 14,131 ≈ 6.7% per annum.
– After accounting for typical transaction entry costs (around 7–8%): ROI_net ≈ 6.2–6.3% per annum.

This is close to the threshold values for investment-grade assets in Dubai. If an investor targets a gross yield of 7–8% per annum, the fair investment price range for this level of return would be:

– At a target ROI of 7%: 943 / 0.07 ≈ 13,470 AED/m²
– At a target ROI of 8%: 943 / 0.08 ≈ 11,788 AED/m²

The current average price in Legacy by Sunrise (14,131 AED/m²) exceeds this range by 5–20%. To achieve a target yield of 7–8%, new investors will either need to rely on further rental growth or buy at a discount to current transaction levels (around 8–15%).

6. Conclusions on liquidity and investment outlook

Legacy by Sunrise is a modern building with a high share of new transactions and a price premium relative to the surrounding area. The main transaction phase took place in 2023–2024; going forward, liquidity for a buyer entering now will gradually decline as the market becomes saturated.

Against the backdrop of overall growth in prices and rents in Al Barshaa South Third (Arjan), the project looks like a liquid asset capable of maintaining demand, provided a well-structured leasing strategy. The average price in the building is already at the upper edge of the investment range: over a 1–2 year horizon, high ROI is only possible if rental rates continue to grow faster than the market, or if units are purchased at a discount.

Summary: the project suits investors who are betting on further area growth and are not expecting returns above 6–6.5% net in the first two years. For quick flip / rental cash-flow strategies, the project is closer to the “premium” class with a clear price premium to the area, which is clearly reflected in transaction levels.