ROI analysis of apartment in Dawn By Binghatti: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Dawn By Binghatti — according to DLD data, the building belongs to the Al Barsha South Fourth area and the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. All further area analytics and benchmarks are based strictly on these designations.

The DLD database records 39 sale transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in this building (Residential, Flat, last 1–2 years). There is no data on rental contracts for the building itself or for the master project. For rental benchmarks, the Al Barsha South Fourth area is used.

2. Demand and liquidity

The following volumes of 1BR transactions have been recorded in Dawn By Binghatti:
– A total of 39 sales in the database (a typical volume for a new building).
– The transaction activity peaks in the recently completed and subsequent quarters:
– Q4 2024: 12 deals
– Q1 2025: 7 deals
– Q2 2025: 6 deals
– Q3 2025: 13 deals
– Q4 2025: 1 deal

The structure is typical for new projects: the maximum volume falls on handover and initial market entry.

Liquidity is high at the start: in the nearest quarters many units are purchased quickly, indicating strong attention from owners/investors.

3. Dynamics of purchase prices per m² (price_psm)

Average prices per square metre (AED/m²) in Dawn By Binghatti (1BR) by quarter:
– Q4 2024: 15,294
– Q1 2025: 15,362
– Q2 2025: 16,511
– Q3 2025: 19,928
– Q4 2025: 19,977

The rapid increase in the average price is obvious: over the year, growth exceeded 30%. The median sale level over the last 12‑month window is 17,986 AED/m².

For comparison: the average price in Al Barsha South Fourth for comparable 1BR units over the last 12 months is 14,521 AED/m². Dawn By Binghatti is trading at a 23% premium to the area benchmark for the same apartment segment.

The area trend over the last 5 years shows steady growth: from average levels of about 9,000 AED/m² in 2020 to 14–15k in 2025, reflecting the overall market appreciation in JVC and adjacent parts.

4. Dynamics and level of rental rates

The DLD has no records of registered leases in Dawn By Binghatti or even in the Jumeirah Village Circle master project over the last 12 months or for all years (0 contracts for the required apartment subtype). At the same time, in Al Barsha South Fourth as a whole, more than 120,000 active residential rental contracts have been registered just over the last 12 months.

Area benchmark:
– The average annual rental rate per m² in Al Barsha South Fourth over the last 12 months for residential apartments is 1,044 AED/m².
– By year/quarter, the dynamics are as follows (last 8 quarters, residential apartments only): from 963 to 1,067 AED/m² during 2025, with a continued gradual increase towards the present.

Thus, for yield calculations we rely only on the area level: it cannot be guaranteed that rental rates in Dawn By Binghatti are significantly above or below the benchmark.

5. Purchase vs rent comparison, investment analysis (ROI)

Current price and rental indicators:
– Average purchase price per m² (building, 1BR, 12 months): 17,986 AED
– Average purchase price per m² (area, 1BR, 12 months): 14,521 AED
– Average rental rate per m² (area, 12 months): 1,044 AED

Calculated gross yield (ROI):
– For Dawn By Binghatti, it is impossible to calculate ROI due to the lack of up‑to‑date rental data for this project or the master project in the DLD.
– For the area (Al Barsha South Fourth): area ROI_brutto = 1,044 / 14,521 ≈ 7.2% per annum.

A typical adjustment for transaction costs (about 7–8% of the purchase price) leads to ROI_net ≈ 6.7–6.8% for the area.

“Fair price range” for a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
– If we rely on area rental rates (1,044 AED/m²), the investment‑justified price range to achieve a net yield of 7–8% is from 13,050 to 14,914 AED/m².
– The actual average sale price in Dawn By Binghatti exceeds this level by almost 24%. To reach the desired 7–8% yield at current rental rates, either a substantial increase in rents or a discount to current purchase prices is required.

6. Conclusions and recommendations

– Price dynamics in Dawn By Binghatti are confidently outpacing the area benchmark, which is typical for a new quality product.
– In 2024–2025 the average price increased by almost one third, exceeding the area average by 20–24%. This may be driven by heightened interest, the developer’s marketing policy and the specifics of the project’s market launch.
– Liquidity is high, with many transactions, but this is largely the effect of a new tower coming to market.
– There is no rental data for the building, as often happens in newly handed‑over projects. The area benchmark yield is 7.2% gross, 6.7% net under typical conditions.
– For an investor, current purchase prices in Dawn By Binghatti look high relative to area rental income: either rental rates need to grow, or the unit should be acquired at a discount to the market‑driven price to achieve yields above 7%.
– The long‑term potential of the area shows a positive trend, rental demand is stable, and yields remain reasonable versus the wider market, but project‑level premiums over the market require individual confirmation of payback.

7. Labelling of graphical data for charting