ROI analysis of apartment in Creek Crescent: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: Creek Crescent is located in the Al Khairan First area, within the Dubai Creek Harbour master project. The analysis uses only transactions and contracts from DLD, filtered strictly by the actual building name “Creek Crescent” and 1-bedroom apartments (1 b/r).

2. Activity, liquidity and nature of transactions

In total, 374 sales of “Flat”-type units have been registered in Creek Crescent. The volume of transactions for 1-bedroom apartments (1 b/r) is distributed as follows:

– In Q3–Q4 2022 there was a sales peak (61 and 24 deals respectively).
– In 2023 the sales pace slowed, but on average 1–6 deals per quarter continued to close up to the current year.
– Over the last 12 months, several transactions have been recorded.

This indicates high market liquidity of the development, peak demand at launch, and ongoing activity in the secondary market after the project entered the market.

3. Price dynamics for 1-bedroom apartments

Average price per square metre (AED/m²) for 1-bedroom apartments in Creek Crescent and Al Khairan First by year and quarter:

For Creek Crescent (1 b/r):

– From Q3 2022: the average price held at around 21,000 AED/m², then throughout 2024 steadily increased from 22,100 to 23,500 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months (all transactions): the current level is about 25,600 AED/m² in Creek Crescent (1-bedroom units).
– From launch to date, the increase amounts to roughly 20% (from ≈21,000 to ≈25,600 AED/m²).

For Al Khairan First (1 b/r):

– In 2022—at the start of sales here—the average price was around 18,000 AED/m²; now figures fluctuate in the 22,400–25,500 AED/m² range.
– The 12‑month average for the area is close to the building and stands at 25,519 AED/m².

Thus, the price level for 1-bedroom apartments in Creek Crescent is fully in line with the area’s market average, without a significant premium or discount.

4. Rental market: rental rate and dynamics

Rental contracts in Creek Crescent started to be registered relatively recently, which is typical for new properties.

– Over the last 12 months in Creek Crescent, the average annual rental rate per square metre (regardless of unit type, due to the limited number of 1-bedroom transactions) amounted to 1,577 AED/m² (with limited statistics strictly for 1-beds).
– For comparison, in Al Khairan First the average annual rental rate over the last year is slightly lower — 1,444 AED/m².

The trend in rental rates in both the development and the area is clearly upward: while in 2022 the area’s average rents were around 900–1,200 AED/m², by now they have approached 1,400–1,500 AED/m². For Creek Crescent itself, the rate on the latest contracts (across the whole building) is even above the market, which can be explained by the popularity of the new building and its positioning in the upper segment.

Rental contracts for 1-bedroom units have been signed in limited numbers — statistically reliable, confirmed values can only be obtained at the level of the entire building (all unit types).

5. Yield (ROI) calculation and investment assessment

Average purchase price of a 1-bedroom apartment in Creek Crescent over the last 12 months — 25,600 AED/m²;

Average annual rent in the building (all units) — 1,577 AED/m²; in the area — 1,444 AED/m².

Calculated gross yield (ROI):

– For Creek Crescent (based on building-wide average rents and prices): 1,577 / 25,600 = 6.2%
– For Al Khairan First (based on market averages): 1,444 / 25,519 = 5.7%

After adjusting for initial costs (≈7%):

– The indicative net unlevered yield (ROI_net) for Creek Crescent will be around 5.8–5.9%; for the area — 5.3–5.4%.

Fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum, given the current rents in Creek Crescent:

– Minimum fair price for a 7% ROI: 1,577 / 0.07 ≈ 22,500 AED/m²
– Maximum for an 8% ROI: 1,577 / 0.08 ≈ 19,700 AED/m²

In other words, to reach a target yield of 7–8% per annum, an investor would need to enter with a 10–20% discount to the current transaction price, or wait for further rental growth.

6. Summary and investment outlook

Creek Crescent is a new, liquid building in the sought-after Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First) area. Sales at launch were significantly above the market average, but at this point the price level for 1-bedroom units is fully comparable with the wider area.

Rental rates in the building are slightly above the market (building-wide — 1,577 AED/m²), but the yield on capital invested is currently closer to 6%. To reach a 7–8% ROI, either further rental growth or a discounted purchase is required. The volume of new rental contracts is growing rapidly, confirming strong current market demand.

The long-term potential of the building is linked to the area’s reputation and the development prospects of the Dubai Creek Harbour waterfront. Over a 3–5 year horizon, further market stabilisation can be expected, while the high quality of new buildings such as Creek Crescent will continue to support demand and liquidity.