ROI analysis of apartment in Bluewaters Bay: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location:
DLD sales data filtered by the name “Bluewaters Bay” clearly match this project to the Marsa Dubai area. In the master project or sub-community there is no separate designation for Bluewaters Bay (master_project_en is empty).

There is no rental data directly for Bluewaters Bay, neither for the entire project nor for individual layouts, so comparative and income-based rental analysis is only possible at the Marsa Dubai area level.

Data volume and availability:
For 1-bedroom apartments in Bluewaters Bay, 322 transactions have been recorded. This provides a robust statistical base for analysing price dynamics and levels for the building. In the rental database for the last 12 months, more than 100,000 residential apartment lease contracts have been registered in Marsa Dubai as a whole — the data volume is high.

2. Liquidity: volume and frequency of transactions

Bluewaters Bay (1BR) is a new product with pronounced off-plan demand in 2023: the peak of transactions fell in Q1 and Q2 2023 (128 and 115 sales respectively). Afterwards, the pace slowed sharply: in H2 2023 there were 33 deals, and in 2024 and beyond — 22 deals in 2024 and 24 deals recorded in 2025 (this reflects the transaction flow, not the calendar handover).

This illustrates the typical waves of activity for investment projects at the booking and market-entry stages. Overall liquidity is high.

3. Price dynamics per square metre

Bluewaters Bay (1BR):

– Over the entire observation period there have been significant fluctuations in the average price per m²: from 39,000 to 43,000 AED/m².
– The peak occurred in Q2–Q4 2024, closer to the final stages and, possibly, the launch of new pools.
– Over the last 12 months, the average transaction price per m² is 40,940 AED/m².

Marsa Dubai (1BR):

– The new project is clearly being sold at a substantial premium to the Marsa Dubai average.
– The average price of 1-bedroom apartments in the area over the last 12 months is 27,175 AED/m².
– Over the last 5 years the area has shown confident growth: from 18,000–22,000 AED/m² in 2020–2022 to 25,000–33,000 AED/m² in 2023–2024, although volatility in Marsa Dubai is noticeable.
– Bluewaters Bay is being sold on average at a 50%+ premium to the area for this apartment type.

4. Rental rate dynamics and levels

For Bluewaters Bay itself, not a single lease contract has been recorded in DLD: the project is new, and mass tenant move-in has either not yet started or contracts are not being registered through DLD.
Analysis is only possible at the Marsa Dubai level:

– Over the last 12 months, the average rental rate across the entire residential stock of the area is 1,300 AED/m² per year (annualised, all residential apartments, area over 10 m², annual contracts).
– For 1-bedroom apartments, likely values are close to the area average, but due to the lack of direct data for Bluewaters Bay this cannot be reliably confirmed.
– Area dynamics: from 700–900 AED/m² in 2020–2022 up to 1,200–1,300 AED/m² in 2023–2024, which is in line with the overall market trend for prime waterfront locations.

5. Home vs area comparison and yield level (ROI)

Comparison of unit prices for the building and the area:
– Bluewaters Bay, 1BR: average transaction price over the last 12 months — about 40,940 AED/m².
– Marsa Dubai, 1BR (rate used for ROI analysis): average price — 27,175 AED/m².
– The lion’s share of Bluewaters Bay’s price premium is explained by the uniqueness of the asset on an artificial island and the project’s newness.

Rent:
– The average annual rent per m² for the area can be taken as a benchmark: 1,300 AED/m². For Bluewaters Bay, the potential rate is likely to be above the area average, but there are no confirmed DLD contracts yet.

ROI (calculation only for the area):
– Gross yield for a “typical 1BR in Marsa Dubai” based on current rents and sale prices is around 4.8% per annum (1,300 / 27,175).
– Net yield, taking into account transactional and related costs (around 7%), is approximately 4.5% per annum.
– For Bluewaters Bay, current ROI cannot be calculated due to the absence of rental data for the building, but given the price premium and area-level rents, ROI will be significantly below the indicative 7–8%.

Fair investment range:
– If an investor targets a 7–8% annual yield in the area, the fair purchase price for an average apartment is 16,250–18,570 AED/m² (1,300 / 0.08 and 1,300 / 0.07).
– Bluewaters Bay is being sold well above this range, so investment yield at current prices is below typical market benchmarks.

6. Brief conclusion

Bluewaters Bay is almost a textbook case of an extreme premium: the building is selling 50–60% higher than the average 1BR in Marsa Dubai, liquidity is high, and the initial transaction volume at launch was substantial. Despite strong growth in area rents and prices, the current ROI level for an investor in Bluewaters Bay is quite moderate — area yield is around 4.8% per annum, and for the project itself (given the holding premium) it is likely lower. For buyers focused on income and cost of ownership, the price gap versus the area requires a serious premium for uniqueness, brand and the location’s development prospects. At a target yield of 7–8%, the current building price does not provide an “investment entry price” without a substantial discount.