1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to DLD, the BELGRAVIA III building (marketing name “Belgravia”) is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. All SQL queries for the building were based on this building name and area. The DLD database contains a substantial volume of data: over 921,000 sale transactions and more than 4.7 million rental contracts.
2. Apartment transactions: dynamics for BELGRAVIA III and the area
For 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r) in BELGRAVIA III, recorded sales show a noticeable number of transactions starting at least from 2020. Over the past four years, the average price per square metre for 2-bedroom units in the building has fluctuated between approximately 8,500 and 16,000 AED/m², with local peaks and dips reflected in the quarterly dynamics.
At the area level (Al Barsha South Fourth, 2 b/r), the transaction volume is many times higher than for a single building: each quarter sees from hundreds to almost a thousand deals, which provides a solid statistical basis for analysis. The average quarterly price in the area over the last three years has been rising: while in 2021–2022 it was in the 7,000–8,000 AED/m² range, in 2024 prices consistently exceeded 11,000–13,000 AED/m² for the same apartment type.
3. Current price level over the last 12 months
According to DLD data for the past 12 months:
– The average transaction price per m² for 2-bedroom apartments in BELGRAVIA III was about 9,670 AED/m².
– The corresponding figure for Al Barsha South Fourth as a whole was approximately 12,920 AED/m².
Thus, apartments of this layout in BELGRAVIA III are currently selling at roughly a 25% discount to the area average, which may be related to deal specifics, the age of the asset, or differences in property characteristics.
4. Rental rate dynamics
An important caveat: for BELGRAVIA III itself and for 2-bedroom apartments in this building (and even at the Jumeirah Village Circle master-project level), DLD does not record a single relevant annual rental contract (annual_amount/actual_area) over the past year that would be suitable for a verified calculation of average rental rates at the unit/building level. This is typical for new or low-rental buildings. In such cases, it is permissible to use only the indicator for the wider area, and not to draw any quantitative conclusions for the building itself.
At the Al Barsha South Fourth area level, the average annual rent per m² for residential apartments over the last 12 months was about 1,040 AED/m², based on more than 26,000 contracts. This makes the data representative: in terms of volume and demand stability, the area demonstrates high rental liquidity.
5. Rental dynamics (by area)
Quarterly data analysis for the area shows a confident increase in average rental rates from ~600–650 AED/m² at the beginning of 2022 to 850–900 AED/m² in 2024 and above 1,000 AED/m² in the most recent quarters. There is a steady positive trend with accelerating growth into the current year.
6. ROI calculation and investment yield conclusions
– It is not possible to calculate gross and net yields (ROI_brutto and ROI_net) for BELGRAVIA III, as DLD has no registered rental transactions for the required layout/building.
– For the Al Barsha South Fourth area:
– Price per m² based on transactions over the last 12 months: ~12,920 AED
– Average rent per m² for new contracts over the last 12 months: ~1,040 AED
Accordingly, the gross area yield for a residential apartment is estimated at around 8.1% per annum (1,040 / 12,920). Taking into account typical initial purchase costs (7–8%), the actual net yield (~ROI_net) is about 7.5–7.6% (gross ROI divided by 1.07–1.08).
A fair investment price range (for a target yield of 7–8%), based on confirmed DLD rental rates, is as follows: given the current average rent, the entry threshold for an 8% annual yield is 13,000 AED/m², and for 7% it is 14,850 AED/m². The actual market price in the area roughly corresponds to a 7–8% yield without a premium or significant discount, while in BELGRAVIA III itself the price per m² is below the area average, which may be attractive for an investor as an entry point.
7. Liquidity and outlook
The Al Barsha South Fourth and Jumeirah Village Circle markets as a whole are characterised by high liquidity: transaction and rental volumes are substantial, dynamics are positive, and demand is stable. Both sales and rentals at the area level have been growing in almost every quarter in recent years; the price trend in 2022–2024 has been distinctly upward and in line with citywide patterns.
For the building itself (BELGRAVIA III), recent years show a sufficient number of sales to provide guidance on average pricing. The lack of rental contracts limits the analysis of cash-flow yield at the building level — possibly due to the ownership profile or a later entry into the rental market.
8. Summary
In the context of the area, BELGRAVIA III is trading below the average market purchase price for 2-bedroom apartments (a 25% discount to the area), which can be viewed as an investment advantage. The Jumeirah Village Circle – Al Barsha South Fourth cluster remains one of the most liquid and stable mid-market locations. Investor yields over a 3–5 year horizon may remain in the 7–8% gross annual range; however, achieving this in a specific building depends on the emergence of a stable track record of rental transactions. It is advisable to regularly monitor new rental contracts for the building/project.
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