ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Riviera 36: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: the building Azizi Riviera 36 is confirmed by DLD data as being located in the Al Merkadh area, within the Meydan One Community master project. The DLD database records 250 sale transactions for this building and 231 unique rental contracts (for rentals — under the project name “Azizi Riviera 36”).

The dataset for further analysis is based on the following parameters:
– Building: Azizi Riviera 36
– Benchmark area: Al Merkadh
– The data volume is sufficient for building-level analysis; if necessary, we use comparison with the wider area.

2. Liquidity and transaction volume

For Azizi Riviera 36, transactions have been recorded since Q3 2022, with the highest number of deals in Q2 2024, which indicates mass registration of ownership rights — most likely at the key handover stage. Liquidity is high: dozens of transactions have been recorded for the building in each quarter over the past two years. For rentals, a large number of new contracts have also been registered since the beginning of 2024, confirming strong demand.

3. Price dynamics for purchases in the building and the area

Average price per square metre in Azizi Riviera 36 by quarter:
– Q3–Q4 2022 — 19,100–19,200 AED/m²
– 2023 — range of 20,000–43,000 AED/m² (a separate spike in Q4 2023 is most likely linked to a one-off high-value transaction)
– 2024 — 20,500–26,200 AED/m², with a noticeable peak in Q1 (26,200) and subsequent stabilisation slightly above 20,000 AED/m²

The Al Merkadh area has grown more smoothly:
– 2020–2021: 15,000–18,000 AED/m²
– 2022 — growth to 19,100 AED/m² by year-end
– 2023 — 18,600–19,100 AED/m²
– 2024 — growth to 22,300 AED/m² by Q4

Thus, Azizi Riviera 36 started slightly above the area average, recently reached a significant premium (up to 25–30%), but by mid-2024 the price gap had narrowed considerably: based on the last 12 months, the building is priced at roughly 30% above the area average.

Actual averages over the last 12 months:
– Building: 29,800 AED/m²
– Area: 22,200 AED/m²

4. Analysis of rental rates for the building and the area

Dynamics of the average rental rate (AED/m²/year) for Azizi Riviera 36:
– Since the beginning of 2024 — a gradual increase from 1,285 to 1,492 AED/m² by the end of the analysis period; the current average level is 1,450 AED/m² (last 12 months).

For the Al Merkadh area:
– 2020: 600–650 AED/m²
– 2022: 900–1,100 AED/m²
– 2023: steady growth to 1,350 AED/m²
– 2024: 1,340–1,550 AED/m² (last quarter — 1,551 AED/m²)

Average rental rate over the last 12 months:
– Building: 1,450 AED/m²
– Area: 1,540 AED/m²

Based on actual lease contracts, Azizi Riviera 36 is currently showing a slightly lower rent per m² than the area average, which is linked to the large number of new contracts at the early stage of the building’s operation (first tenants, promotional rates or initial incentives).

5. Yield (ROI) calculation based on DLD

Based on data for the last 12 months:
– Building:
– Average purchase price: 29,800 AED/m²
– Average rent: 1,450 AED/m²
– Gross yield (ROI_brutto): 4.9%
– Area:
– Average purchase price: 22,200 AED/m²
– Average rent: 1,540 AED/m²
– Gross yield (ROI_brutto): 6.9%

Taking into account entry costs (7–8% for commissions/taxes/registration), the actual net yield is estimated at:
– For Azizi Riviera 36: around 4.5% per annum (by dividing brutto by 1.07).
– For the area: around 6.4%.

Thus, Azizi Riviera 36 clearly underperforms the area average in terms of current investor yield — the purchase price premium is not offset by higher rents.

Calculation of the “fair price range” for an investor targeting a 7–8% yield:
– Based on the actual rent of 1,450 AED/m²: fair purchase price — 18,100–20,700 AED/m² (a 30–40% discount to the current average transaction price in the building is required to reach a 7–8% yield)
– Based on the area level: 19,250–22,000 AED/m² (the current market is almost at the upper boundary of this range, i.e. a buyer in Al Merkadh on average can achieve the target yield, whereas in Azizi Riviera 36 they cannot)

6. Investor outlook and liquidity

Azizi Riviera 36 demonstrates high liquidity, but its initial pricing at handover significantly outpaced the area market. Rental rates are still lagging behind the Al Merkadh averages, likely due to the intensive release of new units and competition for tenants. This reduces its investment appeal for a “buy-to-let” strategy.

The area as a whole is stable and shows confident growth in both sales and rentals. For a new acquisition today, it is more reasonable to target a price level closer to the area average (22,000–23,000 AED/m²) to achieve a 7–8% yield. All calculations are based on DLD average prices and rents — returns for specific apartments may differ.

7. Key takeaways

– Azizi Riviera 36 remains in demand and liquid, but for an investor the current price levels (30% above the market) sharply reduce yield.
– When buying at current average prices, an owner can expect only about 4.5% per annum (net) based on actual DLD rental contracts.
– The average price level in Al Merkadh is closer to the investment-fair range for a target 7–8% yield.
– Short-term outlook — rental market stabilisation in the building; long-term — rental growth potential remains, but a significant outperformance versus area rental rates is not expected.