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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location:
In the DLD, the building AYKON CITY is assigned to the Business Bay area (project_name_en = ‘AYKON CITY’, area_name_en = ‘Business Bay’). There is no transaction or rental data in the DLD database specifically for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in AYKON CITY, so the analysis is based on the Business Bay area level for the Residential Flats segment.
Database structure:
Large samples at the area level make it possible to draw relevant conclusions for modern buildings, including AYKON CITY, even in the absence of direct data for the building itself. Business Bay is characterized by high business and residential activity.
2. Liquidity: transaction and rental volumes
Sales: in Business Bay, tens of thousands of ready-apartment transactions are concluded annually; liquidity is very high (around 2,000–4,000 deals per quarter).
Rentals: over the past 12 months, more than 16,000 residential apartment leases have been registered – there is no shortage of demand. The stock ranges from studios to 3–4 bedrooms, with the largest volume in 1BR units (6,754 contracts at an average rate of about AED 1,310/m²/year).
3. Price dynamics per square meter (sales) over 3–5 years
Over the past four years (2021–2024) for the area:
– 2021: growth in the average price per m² from ~AED 13,800 to ~AED 16,200,
– 2022: further increase to ~AED 20,500 by December,
– 2023: continued growth with a peak of ~AED 23,800 in autumn,
– 2024 (January–September): price stable around AED 24,000–25,000/m².
Average for the year (June 2023 – June 2024): AED 25,280/m² (13,356 transactions).
4. Rental market dynamics over 3–5 years
Average annual rent per square meter in Business Bay:
– 2021: ~AED 700–770 (after the COVID downturn),
– 2022: AED 800–940, clear growth,
– 2023: ~AED 1,240–1,310 (a jump in rental demand),
– 2024: ~AED 1,160–1,300.
Average over the last 12 months: AED 1,302/m² (16,498 contracts).
For 1BR (a typical configuration for AYKON CITY): 6,754 contracts confirmed, with an average rent of AED 1,310/m²/year.
Observed rate range in 2023–2024 in the area: from AED 42 to AED 292,273/m²/year (the highest values are clearly outliers related to prime units or data errors).
5. Comparison of the building and the area
Since there is no valid DLD data specifically for AYKON CITY – 1BR, investment calculations and comparisons are based solely on Business Bay area indicators. Given its profile (a modern complex on the canal front, premium development), AYKON CITY generally matches the upper price segment of the area or slightly exceeds it (a 1–5% premium).
6. ROI: yield calculation
Actual area data:
– Purchase price (12‑month average): AED 25,280/m².
– Annual rent (12‑month average): AED 1,302/m².
ROI (roughly, excluding expenses): 5.15% per annum.
Adjusting for initial costs (DLD fee 4%, broker 2%, other ~1–2%, total 7–8% on top of the purchase price): the actual net yield is about 4.8% per annum.
7. Fair price range for an investor targeting 7–8% per annum
For a typical investor, the target purchase price range based on area rental levels is:
– for 8% p.a.: 1,302 / 0.08 ≈ AED 16,280/m²,
– for 7% p.a.: 1,302 / 0.07 ≈ AED 18,600/m².
The current market price is significantly higher (AED 25,280/m²), meaning a 30–55% discount is required for a pure investment purchase.
8. Conclusions and recommendations
– Liquidity in Business Bay is among the highest in Dubai; transaction and lease statistics confirm stable demand.
– Sales and rental prices grew rapidly in 2021–2024; the share of new contracts for 1BR units is the highest.
– Modern buildings in the area (including AYKON CITY) deliver a gross yield of ~5.1% and a net yield of about 4.8% when purchased at market price.
– To achieve a typical investment return of 7–8%, the purchase price needs to be significantly below the current area average.
– No material risk of weakening demand or price declines in Business Bay has been identified in the short term.
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