ROI analysis of apartment in Amalia Residences: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the AMALIA RESIDENCES building is located in the Jabal Ali First area, within the Al Furjan master development. All further comparisons are made with this area and master project.
Filtering by property type: The analysis is based on one-bedroom apartments (1BR).

2. Transaction volume and sales dynamics for the building

A total of 48 transactions with 1BR apartments in AMALIA RESIDENCES have been recorded. Most of the deals occurred in 2024, which is typical for new projects after handover or during mass registration. The quarterly dynamics are as follows:
– Q3 2023: 1 transaction
– Q4 2023: 2 transactions
– Q1 2024: 25 transactions
– Q2 2024: 17 transactions
– Q3 2024: 2 transactions
There are no earlier transactions for the building, which is characteristic of new developments.

3. Dynamics of the average price per sq.m

AMALIA RESIDENCES (1BR, by quarter):
– Q3 2023: 11,120 AED/sq.m
– Q4 2023: 10,710 AED/sq.m
– Q1 2024: 10,914 AED/sq.m
– Q2 2024: 10,691 AED/sq.m
– Q3 2024: 11,028 AED/sq.m

Jabal Ali First (area, 1BR, by quarter):
– In 2022, the average price ranged from ~8,700 to ~10,500 AED/sq.m, reached 11,748 AED/sq.m in Q4 2023, and in 2024 stands at around 12,150 AED/sq.m and above.

Over the last 12 months:
– AMALIA RESIDENCES: average price 13,074 AED/sq.m.
– Area (Jabal Ali First): 19,213 AED/sq.m.
AMALIA RESIDENCES is still significantly cheaper than the area average over the last year, which is driven both by the building’s positioning and the stage of primary sales.

4. Rental market analysis

For the building and the Al Furjan master development, no active rental contracts have been recorded (according to DLD), which is typical for newly completed buildings.
For the Jabal Ali First area, the sample size for all residential apartments is large enough to draw conclusions:
– Over the last 12 months, the average annual rental rate in the area is 869 AED/sq.m.
– Quarterly dynamics show steady growth: at the beginning of 2023 the level was 685 AED/sq.m, and by Q2 2024 it had already reached 775 AED/sq.m.

5. Comparison of returns (ROI) and fair price range

It is not yet possible to calculate ROI for the building due to the absence of recent rental contracts.
For the Jabal Ali First area:
– Average sale price per sq.m over 12 months: 19,213 AED.
– Average rent per sq.m over 12 months: 869 AED.
– Gross ROI for the area: around 4.5% per annum.
Typical upfront acquisition costs amount to 7–8% of the transaction price (including DLD fee, broker commission, etc.), which reduces the expected net yield at entry to approximately 4.2% per annum.

Fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield in the area:
– 869 AED / 0.07 = 12,414 AED/sq.m (for 7%)
– 869 AED / 0.08 = 10,863 AED/sq.m (for 8%)
The current price for the building (13,074 AED/sq.m) and for the area (19,213 AED/sq.m) is above the “investment fair” level for a 7–8% ROI, which confirms the current seller’s market: to achieve the desired yield, an investor will need to rely on capital appreciation or look for units with a higher rental rate.

6. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook

Liquidity: The mass registration of transactions for the building in mid‑2024 indicates completion of construction and active sales; as the building becomes occupied, a resale market and rental contracts are expected to emerge.
The Jabal Ali First area is developing dynamically: over 3 years, the average price per sq.m has increased by more than 20%, and rental rates are steadily rising.
Outlook: There is clear rental demand in the area, and the entry price in AMALIA RESIDENCES is noticeably below the current area average, which may support price growth on the secondary market. Until tenants and actual rental contracts appear in this building, investor returns will remain indicative and are likely to be below the desired 7–8% in the first years of ownership.