1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to the DLD database, the building “ALCOVE” is located in the Al Barsha South Fourth area, master project Jumeirah Village Circle. Only verified data for this area has been used for the analysis.
For 1-bedroom apartments in ALCOVE, 39 sales have been recorded in the DLD data and 185 rental contracts for this project (for the entire monitoring period).
2. Sales dynamics and statistics (1-bedroom apartments, building and area)
The number of transactions for the building by year and quarter shows stable activity, with an increase in transaction volume starting from late 2022.
The dynamics of the average price per square metre for the building show:
– In 2020, values were in the range of 5,994–7,192 AED/m².
– In 2022, average prices per m² were 5,133–7,192 AED/m².
– In 2023, growth continued: from 7,411 to 7,665 AED/m².
– In 2024 (the last completed quarter), values are already 8,413–8,548 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the average price per m² for the building is 8,940 AED/m².
For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth the annual dynamics are higher:
– Over the last 12 months, the average price in the area is 15,122 AED/m².
– The area is confidently appreciating; in 2024–2025 average transaction prices already exceed 13,000–15,000 AED/m².
The ALCOVE building is significantly below the area average in terms of price per m², with a gap of around 40% below the average level for the area.
3. Rental rates (building and area)
For 1-bedroom apartments in ALCOVE, the sample is comprehensive:
– Over the last 12 months, the average annual rental rate for the building is 785 AED/m².
– Across the area as a whole for the same period, the average rent is significantly higher: 1,047 AED/m².
– Buildings in the area show a steady increase in rental rates. Average quarterly values over the last three years for the building: from ~523 AED/m² in 2020 to 698–848 AED/m² in 2024. For the area: from ~525 AED/m² to 867 AED/m² in 2024, with an increase to 1,145 AED/m² by early 2026 (based on active contracts).
4. Comparative analysis, profitability, “fair price”
– The ALCOVE building is noticeably cheaper than the area averages both in sale prices and rental rates.
– The average sale price in the building over 12 months is 8,940 AED/m², and the average rent is 785 AED/m².
– In the area, these figures are at 15,122 AED/m² (purchase) and 1,047 AED/m² (rent).
ROI calculation (based only on DLD data, last 12 months):
– For the ALCOVE building: gross yield is about 8.8% per annum (785 / 8,940).
– For the area: gross yield is about 6.9% per annum (1,047 / 15,122).
Taking into account initial acquisition costs (taxes, commission, registration – totalling ≈7–8%), the net yield (net ROI) for the building is estimated at around 8.2–8.3% per annum.
“Fair investment price range” for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield (based on actual rents in ALCOVE):
– With the current average rent of 785 AED/m², to achieve 7–8% per annum, the fair purchase price range is 9,813–11,214 AED/m².
– The actual average price per m² in ALCOVE transactions (8,940 AED/m²) is within the discount zone: at present, a buyer acquires an asset with a yield above the market (slightly above 8% gross), without the need for a substantial discount.
– On average for the area, the “fair price” range at the same target yields is 13,088–14,957 AED/m² (which roughly matches the actual market in the area).
5. Conclusions and outlook for an investor
– Liquidity: the building shows a sufficient volume of sales and rentals; the DLD sample is comprehensive (with no signs of a preferential “no-market” situation).
– The building is significantly cheaper than the area on a per‑m² basis, but rental levels here are also lower, which results in a higher yield.
– Over the last 3 years, both the building and the area have shown a steady increase in prices and rental rates, especially from 2022 onwards.
– For an investor, ALCOVE currently looks like an entry point with a yield slightly above the area average, but with a substantial safety margin — the purchase price is almost 40% below the area level. This protects against price corrections and provides an opportunity to capitalise on future growth in rents and price per m².
– When calculating an individual strategy, it is important to remember that these figures reflect average transactions and contracts recorded by DLD and do not guarantee the yield of a specific apartment: an individual investor’s results may differ due to expenses, vacancy between tenants, etc.
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