ROI analysis of apartment in Fashionz 1 by danube: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, Fashionz 1 By Danube is registered in Al Barsha South Fifth and the master project Jumeirah Village Triangle. DLD queries confirmed that the building is recorded this way, therefore all further area benchmarks and rental comparisons are made against these locations.

The sales sample (1-bedroom apartments) for the building itself includes 188 confirmed transactions from 2023 to date, which allows for a proper analysis of price dynamics for the building and comparison with the wider area. There are no rental contracts in the registry directly for the building or the master project, but there is sufficient data for the area (Al Barsha South Fifth): more than 15,000 contracts over the entire period and 2,843 contracts in the last 12 months alone (for all apartments). This makes the area’s rental rate statistically reliable for comparative analysis.

2. Liquidity and demand structure

The residential complex Fashionz 1 By Danube shows high launch liquidity: since Q3 2023 there has been a large volume of transactions for 1-bedroom apartments, with peak demand in H2 2023, as evidenced by the quarterly deal frequency (from 73 to 45 deals per quarter at launch, then 10–15 deals in subsequent quarters). This is a typical sales start for a large project, with off-plan activity still dominating.

3. Sales price dynamics (1-bedroom apartments), building vs area

Fashionz 1 By Danube (1-bedroom units):
– Average launch price per m² (Q3–Q4 2023): 18,600–18,700 AED.
– During 2024 the average price level in the building remained around 18,400–19,000 AED/m², with a slight dip in Q2 2024 to 17,200 AED and a quick rebound.
– Over the last 12 months the average price was 17,297 AED/m² (based on transactions in the building during the period).

Al Barsha South Fifth (1-bedroom units):
– Before the launch of Fashionz 1 By Danube, the area average ranged between 7,800–11,000 AED/m² (2020–2022).
– In 2023, under the influence of new projects including Fashionz, prices surged sharply: 15,000+ AED/m² by Q3 2023.
– The current area average over the last 12 months is 15,363 AED/m².

Conclusion: Fashionz 1 By Danube is still being sold/resold at a substantial premium: +13% above the area average for 1-bedroom apartments over the last 12 months. The price level in the building has not shown any clear decline even at later sales stages.

4. Rental (by area) and yield estimates

The DLD database has no confirmed rental contracts for Fashionz 1 By Danube or for the Jumeirah Village Triangle master project. For Al Barsha South Fifth (all residential apartments):
– Average annual rent per m² over the last 12 months: 931 AED/m² (2,843 contracts, statistically robust).
– Dynamics: over 3 years rents have almost doubled (from 450–550 to 930+ AED/m²). Over the last four quarters rental rates have been growing steadily, reflecting the general trend in the area.

5. ROI calculation and “fair price” for an investor

It is not possible to correctly assess yield at the building level due to the absence of rental transactions, so ROI is calculated only based on area rental rates.

Gross ROI for the area (Al Barsha South Fifth, 1-bedroom units):
– Calculation for the last 12 months: 931 / 17,297 ≈ 5.4% (if using the building’s price) and 931 / 15,363 ≈ 6.1% (if using the area price level).

Adjustment for costs (net ROI): taking into account entry costs (7–8% of the purchase price), the actual net yield will be lower: approximately 5.0–5.6% at the current market price if we use the building’s price, and 5.7–6.0% if buying at the area’s average price.

With a target yield of 7–8% per year, the calculated “fair” purchase price range for a 1-bedroom apartment for an investor in this area is:
– Lower bound (8%): 931 / 0.08 = 11,638 AED/m².
– Upper bound (7%): 931 / 0.07 = 13,300 AED/m².

The current market is at least 15–20% more expensive even relative to the upper bound of the investment “fair” price. This is typical for new off-plan projects with a premium to the area. To achieve a 7–8% yield, a new investor would need a significant discount to the current building price (17,300 AED/m²), or should focus on the secondary market in the area.

6. Overall conclusions and outlook

Fashionz 1 By Danube is a clear example of a liquid off-plan project with a price premium to the area, but without a confirmed DLD rental track record yet (which is typical for new buildings before handover or mass occupancy). The area shows a stable upward trend in both rents and prices, especially after 2023. Investments in this building at the current stage are primarily aimed at capital appreciation rather than maximising current income: the actual ROI at today’s prices is below 6% per year, which falls short of typical targets for income-focused investments. For a sustainable 3–5 year investment horizon, buyer outcomes will largely depend on the actual pace of occupancy in the building and the market environment after the project is handed over.

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