1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location
According to DLD data, The Square is located in Al Barsha South Fourth and is part of the Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) master project. The analysis uses filters based precisely on these criteria, and all calculations are made exclusively on the basis of confirmed DLD transactions and contracts.
Data structure and volume
For The Square, 545 apartment sale transactions have been collected (including 313 studios). The total number of studio rental contracts is 495 for the entire period and more than 100 over the last 12 months, which indicates high liquidity at the building level.
Across JVC (Al Barsha South Fourth), the total number of apartment sale transactions exceeds 66,900, and rental contracts number more than 111,000 over just the last few years. The area demonstrates one of the highest mass-market liquidity levels in Dubai.
2. Price and rental dynamics
Apartment/studio sales (price per m²):
The average price for studios in The Square over the last 12 months is 12,510 AED/m².
For comparison, the corresponding figure for studios in JVC (Al Barsha South Fourth) over the same 12 months is significantly higher at 17,520 AED/m², meaning The Square is selling at a 29% discount to comparable surrounding stock in JVC.
Historically, studio prices in The Square have been steadily rising: from 9,770–10,700 AED/m² in 2020–2022 to the current 12,000–13,000 AED/m². Local dips in individual quarters are associated with extreme price outliers, but the overall trend is consistently upward. In JVC, growth has been more moderate, and the “premium/discount” gap between the building and the wider area has been preserved.
Studio rentals (annual rental rate per m²):
The average annual rent for studios in The Square over the last 12 months is 1,142 AED/m².
The corresponding figure for JVC and Al Barsha South Fourth is 1,290 AED/m² (based on 12-month data for the same period).
At the time of analysis, rents in The Square are 11.5% lower than the average product in the surrounding JVC, but are also confidently growing: from 690–800 AED/m² (2021–2022) to 1,060–1,180 AED/m² by quarters of 2024.
Liquidity:
Both segments (sales and rentals) show strong and sharp growth in demand since late 2022; demand is not declining, and annual transaction/rental volumes in The Square reach 90–120 contracts, which is above the market average for monolithic towers.
3. Comparison of the building with the area (attractiveness rating)
At the time of analysis, The Square is a liquid and broadly demanded building within JVC, but with a clear discount to the area both in sale prices and rental rates for studios (approximately −29% and −11.5% respectively).
The reasons are that it is a mass-market product with relatively older or more basic quality, which in turn supports high turnover and affordability.
4. ROI, actual fair price range and recommendations
Actual ROI
For The Square:
– Gross yield based on DLD data: 1,142 / 12,510 ≈ 9.1% per annum (for the building, studios, matching periods and parameters).
– For JVC (surroundings): 1,290 / 17,520 ≈ 7.4% per annum (studios, area+master project, 12 months).
Taking into account transaction costs (around 7–8% of the purchase price), the effective net yield can be estimated at 8.4–8.5% for The Square and 6.8–7% for JVC.
Fair “investment price” range at a target yield of 7–8%:
– For The Square (using the building’s rental level as a benchmark): the fair zone for an investor is a purchase price in the range of 1,142 / 0.08 = 14,275 AED/m² to 1,142 / 0.07 = 16,317 AED/m².
– The actual average price in the building is 12,510 AED/m², meaning current market levels provide a yield above the typical 7–8% “investment benchmark” — there is a discount, and the building is attractive for investors.
– Similarly for JVC, the fair price range is 16,125–18,430 AED/m², while the actual level is 17,520 AED/m², so the market is close to a conservative yield estimate.
Scenario forecast and investment conclusions
The Square is an affordable and highly liquid segment within JVC, with pricing significantly below the surrounding area while offering high or even excessive yields (above typical market targets).
Expectations: yield may normalize over time either through further growth in purchase prices (gradual convergence with JVC) or through another round of rental rate increases. An investment horizon of 3–5 years looks attractive, with potential for gradual capital appreciation alongside stable income. Alternative new projects in JVC are already offering lower ROI at launch.
5. Overall assessment of liquidity and outlook
– Transaction and rental volumes in The Square are above average for the mass segment; the product “works” both for tenants and for investors.
– Pricing in the building allows investors to achieve yields above the JVC average without the need for aggressive discounting.
– The area remains one of Dubai’s most liquid markets, which limits resale risk.
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