1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to open DLD data, the Belgravia Heights I building is located in the Al Barsha South Fourth area and belongs to the Jumeirah Village Circle master project.
There is a sufficient volume of DLD sales data for 1-bedroom apartments (1BR) in this building — more than 120 transactions covering the period from 2020 to the present. For leasing, there are no contracts in the DLD database either for this specific building or for the entire Jumeirah Village Circle master project (neither for all units nor specifically for 1BR). To assess rental rates and yields, we used data for Al Barsha South Fourth across the entire residential rental sample.
2. Market dynamics: sales
Over the past 4 years, the volume of transactions with 1-bedroom apartments in Belgravia Heights I has remained consistently high, although the dynamics of the average price per square meter vary by year and quarter:
– In 2020–2021, the average price per m² for 1BR units ranged between 8,900 – 11,100 AED/m².
– In 2022, the range narrowed at a higher level: 10,400 – 11,240 AED/m².
– The last four quarters (2023–2024) show growth: the average price in the building over the past 12 months is 12,622 AED/m².
– In 2024, peak transactions are observed — up to 14,658 AED/m² in an individual quarter; however, the annual average is closer to 13,000–14,000 AED/m². This is approximately 20–30% higher than the 2022–2023 market level.
Comparison with the area:
– The average price per m² in Al Barsha South Fourth over the past 12 months is higher than in the subject building: 14,528 AED/m² (versus 12,622 AED/m² in the building).
– The area shows a steady upward price trend: from ~9,000 AED/m² in 2021–2022 to the current 14,500 AED/m² — a cumulative increase of 50–60% over three years.
3. Market dynamics: rental
For rentals, there have been no DLD contracts over the past 2–3 years either for Belgravia Heights I itself or for the entire Jumeirah Village Circle master project (neither for all units nor selectively for 1BR). This is typical for a new or recently handed-over (off-plan) building where rental relationships are only just forming.
We therefore used the nearest available rental sample in the hierarchy — the entire Al Barsha South Fourth area (all residential apartments):
– Rental activity is consistently high: tens of thousands of contracts are concluded annually.
– The average rental rate for 2023–2024 is 1,051 AED/m²/year (across all residential properties).
In dynamics:
– In 2021–2022, the area’s rate fluctuated in the range of 570–680 AED/m²/year.
– In 2023 — 745–812 AED/m²/year.
– In 2024, we record a gradual increase to 849–966 AED/m²/year.
– Over the last 12 months, the area level is 1,051 AED/m²/year.
Thus, over the past two years the area has been going through a phase of sharp rental growth (almost +40% over two years). A separate 1BR sub-sample is technically unavailable in DLD, so we use the aggregate for the entire residential segment of the area.
4. Comparison of average price per m² and rent. Current yield level
For the last 12 months:
– Market purchase price for a 1BR in Belgravia Heights I — 12,622 AED/m².
– Market rent in the area — 1,051 AED/m²/year.
The gross yield (ROI) for the area can be roughly estimated (annual rent divided by purchase price):
ROI_brutto (area): 1,051 / 14,528 ≈ 7.2% per annum.
ROI_brutto (building): there is no rental data specifically for the building, so it is impossible to calculate a clean DLD-based yield for this particular asset. Only the area benchmark should be used.
Taking into account initial transaction costs of 7–8% (DLD fee, broker, registration, vacancy discounting), the adjustment to net yield will be about 7% lower:
ROI_net (area): ≈ 7.2 / 1.07 ≈ 6.7% per annum.
“Fair price range” for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield, based on the area:
– Fair price range: 1,051 / 0.08 ≈ 13,140 AED/m² (for an 8% ROI target) and 1,051 / 0.07 ≈ 15,014 AED/m² (for a 7% ROI target).
– The actual market price in the area is at the upper end of this range and even slightly above it (14,528 AED/m²).
– The market price in Belgravia Heights I is noticeably below the area average (12,622 AED/m²), meaning transactions in the building are closing at roughly a 15% discount to the area average.
This creates investment appeal, provided the unit can be rented out at the area rate or higher.
5. Liquidity and investment outlook
Liquidity in the building is high: in 2023–2024, between 5 and 18 1BR transactions were recorded per quarter, while the area as a whole sees thousands of transactions per quarter. This reflects strong activity and interest from both investors and end users.
Price growth in Al Barsha South Fourth, and especially in the Jumeirah Village Circle master project, is above the market average, with sustained demand. In Belgravia Heights I, the entry price is about 15% below the area level, and the rate of price growth in the building over the past 12 months has outpaced the broader market.
The absence of DLD rental contracts directly for the building is temporary and typical for new properties. For conservative investment assessments, it is advisable to rely on rental rates from the area-wide sample.
Given the price-to-rent ratio, purchasing in Belgravia Heights I at current prices can be viewed as buying “below market” on a price-per-m² basis (assuming actual rentability in line with the area).
6. Conclusions
– Belgravia Heights I is located in a rapidly growing area where demand for both apartment purchases and rentals is steadily increasing.
– Compared to the area, the current purchase price in the building is about 15% lower than the average, and the yield (using the area’s average rental rate) is potentially above 8% gross and 6.7–7% after all costs.
– The property’s investment appeal is high: transaction liquidity is strong, the area is vibrant, and the tenant base is broad.
– The only significant risk is uncertainty regarding the exact rental level for this specific building, as there are no rental contracts recorded for it yet. The estimates are based on area-wide data, which is standard practice for off-plan assets and newly occupied buildings.
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