1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: the building 17 ICON BAY is located in the Al Khairan First area within the Dubai Creek Harbour master development, as confirmed by open DLD transaction data. There are 412 registered sale transactions and 677 rental contracts for the building, which provides sufficient data coverage for meaningful analysis.
2. Liquidity and demand
Over the past 5 years (from 2020 to 2024 inclusive), a significant number of transactions have been registered for this building every year, indicating sustained interest and solid liquidity. The highest activity was recorded in 2023 (147 transactions), and there is also a large number of new sales in 2024 and 2025, which may be linked to completion of construction and the release of new units to the market.
The rental market also demonstrates stable demand: over the last 12 months, 167 rental contracts have been registered for 17 ICON BAY alone.
3. Sale price dynamics
Quarterly dynamics of the average price per m² in 17 ICON BAY over the last 5 years:
– In 2020–2021, the average price per m² fluctuated in the range of 16,500–20,000 AED/m².
– In 2022, there was a gradual decline to 16,200 AED/m² by year-end.
– In 2023, prices started to grow again: from a low of 15,500 AED/m² in Q1 to 21,500 AED/m² by the end of the year.
– In 2024, values remain elevated: from 19,400 to 21,300 AED/m² by quarter (data for the first 3 quarters of the current year).
The average transaction price per m² in the building over the last 12 months is around 21,100 AED/m² (52 transactions).
For comparison, across the entire Dubai Creek Harbour master project, the average price over the last 12 months stands at 25,000 AED/m², with quarterly dynamics showing strong growth (for example, in 2024 – above 23,500–27,000 AED/m² depending on the quarter).
Thus, 17 ICON BAY is currently trading at a moderate discount (around 15–18%) to the master project average.
4. Rental dynamics
The rental market for the building is characterised by rising rates:
– At the end of 2022, the average annual rent was ~1,080 AED/m².
– In 2023, there was confident growth: from 1,140 AED/m² in Q1 to 1,335 AED/m² by Q4.
– In 2024, growth continued: values reach 1,376 AED/m² in the latest quarter.
The average rental rate for the building over the last 12 months is 1,345 AED/m² (167 contracts). This is above the benchmark for Dubai as a whole and about 17% higher than the average across the entire DLD database for residential leases (approximately 1,150 AED/m² on comparable terms).
5. Yield comparison (ROI): building vs. area and fair price benchmarks
Estimated gross yield (brutto ROI) over the last 12 months for 17 ICON BAY:
– Gross yield for the building: 1,345 / 21,100 ≈ 6.4% per annum.
– For the Dubai Creek Harbour master project: 1,148 / 25,039 ≈ 4.6% per annum (assuming averaging across all buildings).
Taking into account typical acquisition costs (around 7–8% of the price, including DLD fee, brokerage commission and administrative expenses), the effective net yield (net ROI) for the building will be around 5.9–6.0% per annum.
As a benchmark: for an investor to achieve a target yield of 7–8% per annum, the “fair” purchase price range for an apartment in 17 ICON BAY should be in the corridor of 16,800–19,200 AED/m² (calculation: 1,345 / 0.08 and 1,345 / 0.07). The current market price according to DLD (21,100 AED/m²) is noticeably above this threshold, so to reach a 7–8% yield at current rental levels, either rental rates must increase, or the purchase must be made at a discount to the market.
6. Outlook and overall assessment
– 17 ICON BAY is a liquid, modern residential building in a rapidly developing master project. Transaction volumes for both sales and rentals are very high.
– Price dynamics in 2023–2024 are steadily upward, which is a sign of investment appeal.
– Current yield (6.4% brutto / around 6% net after typical costs) is above the average for new developments in Dubai Creek Harbour, but does not reach the “investment ceiling” of 7–8% even with elevated rental rates.
– The building trades at a discount to the master project average (in price per m²), which may indicate further upside potential, but the primary focus should be on rental yield. An investor should factor in the trade-off between liquidity and target yield: at current price levels, a purchase is justified either under a capital appreciation scenario or when buying at a discount.
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