1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: Shamal Waves (according to DLD) is located in Al Barsha South Fourth, within the master project Jumeirah Village Circle. This is confirmed by direct selections by building name from the DLD transaction database.
Data structure and volume:
– Sales transactions (Shamal Waves studios): 119 transactions. Deals are recorded starting from 2020, with active sales continuing up to the present moment.
– Rental contracts (studios in SHAMAL WAVES): 195 contracts for the project. The project is well represented both in sales and in rentals.
2. Deal dynamics and volume for the building and the area
Shamal Waves has been selling steadily since 2020, with a peak in transactions observed in 2023–2024. Quarterly activity is as follows:
– 2023–2024: 30–35 studio transactions in some quarters, sometimes fewer.
– Recent periods (2024): the number moved from 32 in Q1 to lower values in Q2–Q4, which is typical for a stabilising supply.
– Transactions over the last 12 months are ongoing; studio liquidity is high.
For Al Barsha South Fourth as a whole, the overall level of apartment transactions is also stable; the area-wide sample is much larger and covers the full spectrum of residential apartments.
3. Price per square metre dynamics (studios/building/area)
For Shamal Waves (studios only, valid sizes):
– 2020: 7,600–8,400 AED/m²;
– 2021: around 10,400 AED/m² (based on a few individual deals), with a decline to 8,100 AED/m² in H2 2022.
– 2023: rapid growth, with quarterly dynamics in the range of 8,600–8,800 AED/m²;
– 2024: a wide range — a sharp drop at the beginning of the year (3,160 AED/m²), followed by a quick recovery to 8,900–11,500 AED/m² by year-end.
– 12‑month average price: around 9,990 AED/m² (actual DLD transactions).
For Al Barsha South Fourth (all apartments):
– 2020–2022: from 8,000–9,700 AED/m², then a steady increase starting from 2023;
– 2024: area prices are already at 12,950–15,000 AED/m².
– 12‑month average: approximately 15,060 AED/m² (notably higher than in Shamal Waves — studios are trading at a substantial discount to the area).
4. Rental rate analysis
For Shamal Waves (studios), according to DLD:
– From 2020 to 2022: average studio rent remained at 480–550 AED/m²/year.
– From 2023: rapid growth, with quarterly averages in 2024–2025 rising to 700–1,100 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months, the actual average level for the project is 952 AED/m²/year (only liquid, confirmed contracts).
For Al Barsha South Fourth:
– The dynamics are similar, but the levels are higher: in 2024–2025, quarterly rents are 849–1,066 AED/m²/year.
– 12‑month average: about 1,040 AED/m²/year (across the entire residential stock of the area).
5. Price and rent comparison: building versus area
– Price per m² in Shamal Waves (12 months): 9,990 AED/m².
– Price per m² in the area: 15,060 AED/m².
– Rent per m² in Shamal Waves (12 months): 952 AED/m².
– Rent per m² in the area: 1,040 AED/m².
Shamal Waves studios are selling at a 33% discount to the area’s average price, while the rental rate is only 8–9% below the area level. This is a potentially attractive combination for an investor.
6. Yield (ROI)
– Gross ROI for the building (actual, 12 months): 952 / 9,990 = 9.5% per annum (gross yield).
– Gross ROI for the area: 1,040 / 15,060 = 6.9% per annum.
Adjusted for entry costs (taxes, commissions, expenses — around 8% of the purchase price):
– Approximately 8.8% per annum (net, for Shamal Waves).
– For the area: around 6.4% per annum.
7. Fair price range for a 7–8% annual yield (for the building and the area)
For Shamal Waves studios:
– At the current rent level (952 AED/m²) and a target yield of 7–8%:
– The investment‑fair price range is 11,900–13,600 AED/m².
– The current market price (9,990 AED/m²) is even below this range, which creates a significant safety margin and makes the asset attractive for an income‑focused investor.
For the area:
– The fair price range for an investor (given 1,040 AED/m² rent) is 13,000–14,900 AED/m², while the actual price now matches the upper boundary of the range (15,060). In other words, the yield potential across the area is limited; there is no additional premium left.
8. Conclusions on the asset
– The liquidity of Shamal Waves studios is confirmed by a large number of DLD transactions; the rental sample is also stable.
– Transaction prices are 33% below the area average, while rental rates are almost at the area level.
– Even after deducting entry costs, gross yield confidently exceeds 8% per annum, which is considered an excellent level in the current Dubai market.
– The building is consistently rented out, with contracts in place at all times; the spread in prices and unit sizes on the market allows investors to enter at very attractive levels.
– Over the coming years, there is potential for capital appreciation as prices converge towards the area average.
– For yield‑focused investors, the asset is optimal, while for sellers there is currently little room for significant price increases — the market quickly absorbs such units.
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