ROI analysis of apartment in AMALIA RESIDENCES: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, AMALIA RESIDENCES is classified within the Jabal Ali First area and the Al Furjan master project. All calculations are based specifically on this combination (Jabal Ali First / Al Furjan).

The DLD database records 108 sales for AMALIA RESIDENCES and 26 rental contracts. For a separate analysis of 1-bedroom apartments (1BR), the sales sample is small and the rental sample is even smaller.

Unit-level analysis:
– For 1BR units in AMALIA RESIDENCES, only 2 transactions have been registered in the DLD database over the last 12 months (2023–2024), which limits the depth of unit-level estimates.
– For rental contracts in the building over the last 12 months, there are no valid contracts specifically for 1BR units, while for the entire building (all unit types) there are 26 contracts.

For comparative analysis, a benchmark is applied based on the Al Furjan master project within Jabal Ali First, covering both sales and rental price levels.

2. Sales dynamics and deal structure

Transaction frequency:
– 2023 — 3 transactions for 1BR units.
– 2024 — 44 transactions for 1BR units.
– For 2025 and 2026, the DLD system shows isolated transactions, most likely related to late handover/registration or off-plan format. It is not correct to use these to forecast real market values for these years.

Average price per m² dynamics (1BR sales, completed periods only):
– The latest available transactions were recorded in 2024 — the average price per m² in the building for 1BR units was in the range of 10,700–11,000 AED.
– On average over the last 12 months (based on just 2 transactions!), the price amounted to 13,503 AED/m².

Comparison with the benchmark (Al Furjan, Jabal Ali First, all apartments):
– Within the area/master project, the average price per m² over the last 12 months is 13,695 AED/m².
– Long-term dynamics for Al Furjan: from 2021 to 2024, the average price per m² increased from 7,600–8,100 AED (2021) to 11,000–13,700 AED (2024), with prices in 2024 rising from 11,200 to 12,500 AED/m² over the year.

Thus, the price level for 1-bedroom apartments in AMALIA RESIDENCES over the year is equivalent to the rest of the Al Furjan residential stock.

3. Rental market

Rental information is strictly based on valid DLD contracts with filters by property type and area.

For AMALIA RESIDENCES:
– Over the last 12 months, there have been no full rental contracts for 1BR units; for all unit types combined, there are 26 contracts.
– The average annual rental rate in the building (all unit types) for this period is 1,038 AED/m².

For the Al Furjan master project (Jabal Ali First, all apartments):
– Over the last 12 months, 6,527 rental contracts have been recorded.
– The average annual rental rate is 977 AED/m².

Long-term dynamics (Al Furjan, all apartments):
– Growth in the average rental rate over 3 years from 540–770 AED/m² (2021) to 860–1,020 AED/m² by the quarters of 2024–2025.
– Rental activity in both the building and the area accelerated significantly after 2022, and the rate in the building is now slightly higher than the average for the master project.

4. ROI and investment appeal

ROI calculations for the last 12 months (for the building and the area):

– For AMALIA RESIDENCES (all unit types, based on confirmed DLD contracts):
– Average price per m² (sale): 13,503 AED.
– Average annual rent per m²: 1,038 AED.
– Gross ROI = 1,038 / 13,503 ≈ 7.7%.

– For the Al Furjan master project (Jabal Ali First, all apartments):
– Price per m²: 13,695 AED.
– Rent per m²: 977 AED.
– Gross ROI = 977 / 13,695 ≈ 7.13%.

Taking into account all initial acquisition costs (DLD fee, brokerage, registration, etc., totalling ≈ 7–8% on top of the purchase price):
– For AMALIA RESIDENCES, the effective net yield ROI_net = 7.7% / 1.07 ≈ 7.2%.
– For Al Furjan / Jabal Ali First — ROI_net ≈ 6.7%.

Fair price range for an investor (per m²), with a target yield of 7–8% p.a. based on DLD data:
– For the building: [1,038 / 0.08; 1,038 / 0.07] = [12,975; 14,829] AED/m².
– The price per m² from transactions over the last 12 months in the building falls within this range; the current market value reflects a “fair” level for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield.

5. Liquidity

– Sales volume in the building over 2023–2024 is average for a new project: 3–44 transactions per year for 1-bedroom units, with the main activity peak also coinciding with the launch phase.
– Annual rental volume in the building is only 26 transactions (all unit types), while in the area it is significantly higher (6,500+ per year). This corresponds to the “ramp-up” phase of a new project, but as occupancy improves, rental liquidity is expected to grow.

6. 3–5 year outlook

– Price and rental dynamics in Al Furjan show steady growth: over 3 years, prices per m² have increased by almost 1.5x, and rents by roughly 30–40%.
– AMALIA RESIDENCES is currently trading and leasing at approximately the average Al Furjan market level, without a clear premium or discount.
– The asset appears to be a fair investment for an investor targeting a classic 7–8% annual yield, with good prospects for gradual improvement in liquidity and rental rates as the area develops.

General recommendations:
– AMALIA RESIDENCES can be considered as a long-term buy-to-let asset, with yields in line with the wider area.
– No significant risks of liquidity loss are visible on a 3–5 year horizon; the Al Furjan area potential supports sustained demand for real estate.
– For a deal targeting a 7–8% annual return, the recent transaction price levels appear fair.