ROI analysis of apartment in Green Park: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD data, the Green Park building is located in Al Barsha South Fifth, within the Jumeirah Village Triangle master project.

The structure and depth of the sample allow for a full-scale analysis:
– The DLD database records 41 sale transactions for one-bedroom apartments (1BR) in the Green Park building.
– Over the past 12 months, 52 rental contracts (all apartment types, including 1BR) have been registered in Green Park.
– Separate rental data for 1BR units over the last 12 months is insufficient for a standalone calculation, but the overall average rate for the building is adequate for analysis.
– The volume of sales and rental contracts at the Jumeirah Village Triangle master-project level is very high, which underpins the robustness of the conclusions.

2. Sales dynamics (price per m²) for the building and the area

For Green Park (1BR):
– The average price per m² over the last 12 months was 8,770 AED (9 transactions).
– Quarterly dynamics from 2021 to date show confident growth: from 4,500–5,000 AED/m² (2021) to 6,100–7,200 AED/m² (2023), and up to the current 8,400–9,000+ AED/m² in 2024–2025.
– The number of transactions at 1–4 per quarter represents sufficiently steady liquidity for a building in this segment.

For the master project (1BR, Jumeirah Village Triangle):
– The average price per m² over the last 12 months significantly exceeds Green Park: 15,800 AED (2,566 transactions).
– The trend is also upward: in 2021–2022 — 6,000–10,000 AED/m², in 2023 — 13,000–15,000 AED/m², and in 2024–2025 stabilisation at 14,000–17,000 AED/m².

The gap between prices in Green Park and the average market level in Jumeirah Village Triangle is 40–45%. This may be explained by the specific characteristics of the building itself, its age, condition, or other features (for example, a less prestigious location compared to new projects in JVT).

3. Rental rate dynamics

For Green Park:
– Over the past 12 months, the average rental rate for the entire building was 770 AED/m² per year (based on 52 contracts across all apartment types). There is not enough valid data for 1BR units alone, but within a single building the difference is typically minor.
– Quarterly dynamics from 2021 show a steady increase in rents: 400–500 AED/m² in 2020–2022, 600–700 AED/m² in 2023, and growth to 770–790 AED/m² by late 2024/early 2025.
– The volume of rental contracts is stable — 10–20 per quarter.

For comparison: across the Jumeirah Village Triangle master project, the average rate over the last 12 months is 950 AED/m² per year (2,675 contracts across all formats). Quarterly growth in recent years is similar: from 400 AED/m² in 2020 to 1,000+ AED/m² by the end of 2025.

4. Comparison of the building and the area, ROI calculation

Comparison of market levels:
– Green Park is significantly cheaper than the market — buying a 1BR here costs about 40% less than the district average.
– The rental rate in the building is also below the district level (770 vs 950 AED/m²/year), but to a lesser extent (around 19%).

Brutto ROI over the last 12 months:
– For Green Park (using the overall average rental level per m² due to lack of valid 1BR-only data): ROI_brutto = 770 / 8,770 ≈ 8.8%
– For the master project: ROI_brutto = 950 / 15,800 ≈ 6.0%

Net ROI (taking into account entry costs of ~7% of the price):
– For the building: ROI_net ≈ 8.8% / 1.07 ≈ 8.2%
– For the area: ROI_net ≈ 6.0% / 1.07 ≈ 5.6%

In practice, the investment yield in Green Park based on current DLD transactions looks very attractive: the significantly lower entry price versus the market delivers returns noticeably above the Jumeirah Village Triangle average.

“Fair price” range for investors targeting 7–8% annual yield based on DLD rents:
– For Green Park: with rent at 770 AED/m², the purchase price for a 7–8% ROI would be 9,600–11,000 AED/m² (which is 10–25% above the actual transaction levels), indicating potential discount/premium upside on resale.
– For the area: with a 7–8% target yield for the district, the “fair price” is 11,900–13,570 AED/m²; the current market price is above this band, so average market yields are lower and some price adjustment is possible.

5. Liquidity and outlook

– The building shows stable liquidity both in sales and rentals; the discounted price level versus the market ensures fast payback, but may also indicate that the building is inferior to new premium projects in the area (typical for secondary stock built around 10 years ago).
– Despite the lower entry price, the rental coverage in the building supports high yields, especially for a yield-focused investor.
– JVT demonstrates moderate but steady growth in both prices and rental rates — the 3–5 year outlook for the area is positive, but for Green Park itself a price jump is only likely in case of major refurbishment or an upgrade in the building’s status.

6. Key takeaways

– For the 1BR format, Green Park offers high yields with an entry price significantly below the market, reflecting the specific profile of the building.
– For a target yield of 7–8% per annum, current price levels still justify a “buy” decision; there are more expensive alternatives on the market with lower yields but potentially better capital appreciation prospects.
– For an investor’s final decision, the key question is whether the quality of the building itself and the average tenant profile are acceptable to you.