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1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: according to the DLD database, transactions for LAYA RESIDENCES are attributed to the Al Barsha South Fourth area within the Jumeirah Village Circle master project. This is confirmed by the direct presence of the address in the area_name_en column.
For the analysis, the category of two-bedroom apartments (2BR) was selected, according to the filter rooms_en = ‘2 b/r’. All aggregates for the building and the area are based on the same apartment type, or on the physically available level of detail (if there is insufficient data at the unit level).
2. Data volume and liquidity
Over the entire period, 49 sale transactions for two-bedroom apartments have been recorded in LAYA RESIDENCES. This is a moderate number for a building with several years of market exposure, indicating sufficient liquidity of the asset compared to larger projects in the area.
Within Al Barsha South Fourth (for 2BR), the market is stock-rich, with more than 2,600 transactions for two-bedroom apartments over the last 12 months, which ensures high liquidity and broad representation in the DLD database.
3. Sale price dynamics and price level per m²
Dynamics of the average price per m² for 2BR in LAYA RESIDENCES by year and quarter:
- 2020: 5,400–5,300 AED/m² (isolated transactions)
- 2021: increase to 7,700 AED/m² in Q4
- 2022: 6,400 AED/m² (low volume)
- 2023: sharp increase in Q4 to 7,840 AED/m²
- 2024: range of 6,600–8,600 AED/m², with individual peaks up to 8,900 AED/m² in the latest quarters
Across Al Barsha South Fourth, the dynamics for 2BR are significantly stronger. Since 2020, the baseline level was 6,500–7,000 AED/m² with subsequent growth:
- By 2023, average quotes exceeded 10,000 AED/m², and in 2024 they are approaching 12,000–13,000 AED/m².
- Over the last 4 quarters, the weighted average price in the area is around 12,900 AED/m² (significantly higher than in the building).
The average price per m² based on 14 transactions over the last 12 months in LAYA RESIDENCES is 8,885 AED/m².
For comparison, over the same period the area average is 12,901 AED/m².
4. Rental dynamics and rental level
According to DLD data for the last 12 months, there are no valid (non-zero) rental transactions for two-bedroom apartments in LAYA RESIDENCES under the “two bedrooms” filter (0 contracts). However, for the entire building the total number of recorded rental contracts is 57 per year (average rent per m² — 768 AED/m² per year).
For comparison, in Al Barsha South Fourth (all apartments, including 2BR) the average annual rental rate is 1,039 AED/m² with 26,476 transactions, reflecting a strong demand market and active tenant turnover.
Rental dynamics in the building show a steady upward trend: in 2020–2022 rates were at 500–600 AED/m², with an acceleration starting from 2023; in the latest quarters they are at 700–770 AED/m².
For the area, there is a stable upward trend: from 520–660 AED/m² to 970–1,060 AED/m² on the 2024–2025 horizon.
5. ROI and assessment of investment potential
Estimated ROI_brutto for LAYA RESIDENCES (at the level of the entire building): 768 / 8,885 ≈ 8.6% per annum.
For Al Barsha South Fourth: 1,039 / 12,901 ≈ 8.1%.
Taking into account typical transaction costs (7–8% at entry), the net ROI (ROI_net) will be lower by ~7–8%:
- For the building: approximately 8.6% / 1.07 ≈ 8.0–8.1% per annum (a decrease of 0.6–0.7 p.p.), which preserves its attractiveness for a classic income-focused investor.
- For the area: the resulting net yield is around 7.5%.
Fair price range for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield:
- For the building: 768 / 0.08 = 9,600 AED/m² (at 8% yield), 768 / 0.07 = 10,970 AED/m² (at 7% yield).
The current price of 8,885 AED/m² is below both threshold estimates, creating a potential “buyer’s premium” — there is upside for the investor in terms of income. - For the area: range of 1,039 / 0.08 = 12,990 AED/m²; 1,039 / 0.07 = 14,843 AED/m², which corresponds to current prices, and most of the market is shifting towards the lower or middle boundary of investment value.
6. Comparison of the building and the area
LAYA RESIDENCES lags behind the Al Barsha South Fourth market in terms of average price per m² by about 3,900–4,000 AED/m² (around 30%).
Rental rates in the building (overall, across all contracts) are approximately 25–30% lower than in the area, which is reflected in the absolute income level, but the asset remains attractive due to the relatively moderate entry price.
7. Conclusions and outlook
LAYA RESIDENCES, in the segment of two-bedroom apartments, offers solid liquidity and a high gross yield (above the area average), but requires consideration of possible constraints on achievable rental rates for certain unit types. The gap between the entry price in the building and the average market price in the area may be of interest to investors targeting yields above 7.5–8% per annum and who are comfortable with potentially slower capital appreciation.
Overall, Al Barsha South Fourth remains one of the most dynamic areas in terms of transactions and demand, and the current yield levels are in line with the target benchmarks of investors working with rental residential assets.
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