ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Hartland Waves: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD data, the Sobha Hartland Waves building belongs to the Al Merkadh area and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project.

Data volume:
The DLD database records 1,044 transactions for Sobha Hartland Waves, which gives us a large and representative sample to analyze sales dynamics for the building and compare it with the wider area and the market.

2. Liquidity and sales rhythm

Sales dynamics for the building over the past 3–4 years indicate consistently strong demand. Transaction activity for 2-bedroom apartments (2 b/r) started in mid‑2021, with between 3 and 37 units sold per quarter. This points to solid buyer interest both during construction and after handover.

3. Average price per m² dynamics (2-bedroom)

For Sobha Hartland Waves (2 b/r, residential apartments) over 2021–2024:
– The average price per m² stayed in the 20,600–21,700 AED range in 2021–2022, then jumped to a peak of 23,700 AED in Q1 2023. Afterwards, volatility is observed: in recent quarters the average price per m² has been in the 19,300–20,800 AED range.
– Over the last 12 months, the current average price per m² for 2-bedroom apartments is about 19,765 AED.

For comparison, in Al Merkadh (same parameters: 2-bedroom residential apartments):
– 2021–2022: range of 17,100–19,300 AED/m²; 2023 – volatility with a gradual upward trend; 2024 — in the 18,900–21,100 AED/m² range.
– Over the last 12 months, the average sale price of 2-bedroom apartments in the area is around 20,337 AED/m², which is comparable to or slightly higher than in the building itself.

4. Rental market analysis

According to DLD data, over the entire period there have been no valid registered rental contracts for 2-bedroom apartments in Sobha Hartland Waves, nor for the project overall. This may indicate that leasing activity is only just starting, that owners are not registering leases officially through Ejari, or that there is not yet a sufficient volume of subleasing recorded via DLD.

Therefore, to estimate rental yields we have to move up to the Al Merkadh area level (entire residential stock), where the sample includes more than 27,000 contracts in recent years. For the area:
– The average annual rent per square meter over the last 12 months is 1,525 AED/m².
– Rents in Al Merkadh show a steady upward trend: in 2021–2022 the average rate was around 850–1,100 AED/m², by 2023–2024 it had risen to 1,350–1,550 AED/m², and in the last year it has approached 1,525 AED/m².

5. Comparison and yield (ROI) over the last 12 months

– For Sobha Hartland Waves (2-bedroom): average sale price per m² — 19,765 AED.
– For Al Merkadh (2-bedroom): average sale price per m² — 20,337 AED.
– Average rental rate in the area (for the entire residential stock) — 1,525 AED/m²/year.

Brutto ROI for the area (relevant for investors) = 1,525 / 20,337 ≈ 7.5%

Brutto ROI for the building cannot be calculated directly due to the absence of rental data specifically for this tower, so we have to rely on the area’s average rental rate.

Net ROI, taking into account standard entry costs (in total about 7–8%), will be slightly lower:
– Net ROI ≈ 7.5% / 1.08 ≈ 7.0%

6. Fair price range for an investor

For an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield, with the current rental level (1,525 AED/m²/year in the area), the “fair” purchase price range is 1,525 / 0.08 … 1,525 / 0.07 = 19,063 – 21,785 AED/m².

The actual market sale price in the building (19,765 AED/m²) is slightly above the lower bound of this range, while the area average is closer to the upper bound. Thus, the current price level for 2-bedroom apartments is generally acceptable for investors targeting a 7–8% yield, without requiring a significant discount.

7. Conclusions and outlook

– Liquidity in the building is very high: the transaction frequency for 2-bedroom apartments has remained stable throughout the entire lifecycle of the project.
– The price per square meter in Sobha Hartland Waves is roughly in line with the area average, while for rental benchmarks it is preferable to rely on area-level rates, as there are still no formally registered contracts within the building.
– ROI based on market (area-level) rental and sales data falls within the 7–8% brutto range, without a clear need to discount against the market if the target yield is around 7%. This matches investment expectations for promising districts of Dubai.
– To assess the yield of a specific apartment in this building, it is necessary to clarify the leasing format and market practice via agencies, since there are still no direct contracts recorded through DLD.
– The area and the project demonstrate steady purchase demand, while the rental market has been growing in terms of rental rates for the second year in a row — this supports a positive investment outlook.