1. Definition of the area and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the Dubai Star building belongs to the Al Thanyah Fifth area and the Jumeirah Islands master project. The DLD database records a significant number of transactions for this building; the analysis focuses on 1-bedroom (1BR) apartments.
2. Volume and structure of transactions, liquidity
More than 550 apartment transactions in Dubai Star have been recorded from 2020 to date, with a substantial share in 1BR units. Transaction frequency is stable: in some quarters, the number of 1-bedroom sales reached 10–14 and more, while the minimum values are also above 1–2 deals in most periods. This is above the market average and indicates high liquidity and active resales.
3. Price dynamics per m² for the building and the area
Average price per square meter (m²) dynamics for 1BR in Dubai Star over recent years:
– 2020: 6,200–7,800 AED/m².
– 2021: 6,800–8,000 AED/m², with a further slight increase.
– 2022: 8,400–8,800 AED/m².
– 2023: accelerated growth, from 9,200 to 10,400 AED/m².
– 2024 (January–June): 11,400–11,900 AED/m².
A comparable benchmark for Al Thanyah Fifth (all flats) is significantly higher:
– 2020: 8,600–9,900 AED/m².
– 2021–2022: 9,300–12,000 AED/m².
– 2023–2024: rapid acceleration — up to 16,000–19,900 AED/m² at quarterly peaks.
Current average price per m² (last 12 months):
– Dubai Star 1BR: 13,815 AED/m².
– Al Thanyah Fifth (area): 19,842 AED/m².
There is a clear gap: Dubai Star remains noticeably cheaper than the area average (a discount of almost 30%).
4. Analysis of rental rates and yields
For Dubai Star (both for 1BR and for the building as a whole), there are no recorded rental contracts in DLD over recent years, so it is impossible to estimate an average rental rate specifically for this building.
At the Al Thanyah Fifth area level, DLD rental data is very extensive (more than 60,000 contracts since 2020). Average annual rental rate per m² in the area:
– 2020: 570–670 AED/m².
– 2021–2022: 570–780 AED/m².
– 2023: a sharp increase, from 840 to 920+ AED/m².
– 2024 (mid-year): 935–1,100 AED/m².
The average level for the area over the last 12 months is 1,101 AED/m²/year.
For the building, yield cannot be calculated due to the absence of rental data in DLD. For the area, based on average values:
5. ROI calculation and investment fair value range
The calculation of expected yield for an investor is only possible at the area level:
– ROI (area, gross): 1,101 / 19,842 ≈ 5.5% per annum.
– ROI adjusted for transaction and entry costs (net, ~7% total): 5.5% / 1.07 ≈ 5.1%.
“Investment fair value” per m² to achieve a 7–8% annual yield (for guidance only!):
– At a 7% target yield: 1,101 / 0.07 ≈ 15,730 AED/m².
– At an 8% target yield: 1,101 / 0.08 ≈ 13,770 AED/m².
The current Dubai Star price (13,815 AED/m²) is almost exactly at the lower boundary of this range, while the broader area market is significantly more expensive than this level. This means that in the area market, achieving a 7–8% annual yield requires buying at a clear discount to the average market price per m² — which is typical for the current stage of the market.
6. Conclusions and recommendations for the investor
– Liquidity: very high; transactions are active both in the building and in the area, which simplifies entry and exit.
– Dubai Star prices still trade at a substantial discount to the area average, despite steady growth (from 2020 to 2024 the price has almost doubled).
– For investors, Dubai Star looks attractive on a price basis relative to the area: current deals are at the edge of the “investment-justified range” in terms of ROI.
– Rental rates across the area as a whole are growing rapidly, but there is no data for the building itself — investors should rely on their own observations of actual rental deals in the complex.
– Repricing risk: if Dubai Star prices catch up with the area level without a comparable increase in rents, yields will fall significantly.
– 3–5 year outlook: the potential for liquidity and strong price growth has already been largely realized; further dynamics will be driven by rental demand and overall market trends in the area’s Premium/Upper Mid segment.
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