ROI analysis of apartment in Orra Marina: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: DLD data confirms that Orra Marina belongs to the Marsa Dubai area (effectively Dubai Marina) and to the Dubai Marina master project.

There are no recorded sales transactions for studios (0BR) in this building for all available periods. However, across the entire Orra Marina building there have been 393 registered sale transactions, as well as a significant volume of lease contracts — 679 contracts over recent years. This allows for a statistical analysis of the building and a comparison with the Marsa Dubai area.

2. Liquidity and activity

Over the past 4 years Orra Marina has shown stable transaction activity: dozens of deals are concluded in the building every quarter, indicating good liquidity and solid market interest. The rental market shows a similar pattern — every year there is a consistently high flow of new contracts, averaging more than 100 contracts per year based on recent data.

3. Sale price dynamics over 3–5 years

Average sale price per m² in Orra Marina (based on transactions for apartments sized 20–500 m² and excluding obvious price outliers):

– Early 2020: 10,000–11,000 AED/m².
– 2021: growth to 12,000–14,000 AED/m².
– 2022–2024: gradual increase, peaking at 17,000–17,200 AED/m²; in recent quarters (2024) values have remained in the 14,500–17,200 AED/m² range.
– Average price for the building over the last 12 months: around 16,100 AED/m².

For comparison, in Marsa Dubai (only apartment transactions in the residential segment were analyzed) the dynamics are stronger: from 14,000–16,000 AED/m² in 2020, the average price reached 25,000–29,000 AED/m² by 2023–2024. Over the last 12 months the area’s average is 26,900 AED/m², which is significantly higher than the figures for Orra Marina.

4. Rental rate dynamics

Rentals in Orra Marina also demonstrate good liquidity and steady demand:

– In 2020–2021 the average annual rental rate was 740–870 AED/m².
– In 2022–2023 there was a gradual increase, with values reaching 1,000–1,050 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months: an average of 1,125 AED/m² per year for the building.
– In Marsa Dubai the average figure for the last 12 months is about 1,320 AED/m².

The notable growth in rental rates in 2022–2024 has kept entry yields for new investors at an attractive level, despite the marked increase in capital values.

5. ROI and investment metrics

– Actual gross ROI for Orra Marina over the last 12 months: about 7.0% per annum (1,125/16,100).
– For Marsa Dubai: approximately 4.9% per annum (1,320/26,900).
– After accounting for entry transaction costs (7–8%), the indicative adjusted net ROI for the building is around 6.5–6.7% per annum.
– For the area as a whole — about 4.5–4.6% net.

“Fair price range” for an investor targeting a 7–8% annual yield:

– For Orra Marina, based on actual rental rates: the investment-justified purchase price range is 14,050–16,070 AED/m² (calculation: 1,125 / 0.08 and 1,125 / 0.07). The actual average sale price for the building over the last 12 months (16,100 AED/m²) is currently at the upper boundary of this range. This means the current market price supports a target yield of 7% per annum, but to reach 8% a small discount to the current market level is required.
– For Marsa Dubai, the analogous range is 16,500–18,900 AED/m² (significantly below the current area average), which confirms the presence of an area-wide premium and, potentially, somewhat more conservative opportunities for an investor buying at the average area price.

6. Comparison with the area

Orra Marina trades at a noticeable discount to the average price in Marsa Dubai (roughly 40% cheaper), while rents here are slightly below the area average. Nevertheless, the building’s yield is significantly higher than the area average (7% vs 5%).

7. Conclusions and outlook

– The asset shows good liquidity (regular transactions, high rental activity).
– Price dynamics over 3 years show steady growth, but the building’s growth rate has been noticeably lower than that of the wider area market, so the discount to the area remains persistent.
– The building is attractive for investors seeking a balanced profile: rational entry price and 7%+ yield (potentially higher when buying individual discounted units and with sufficient leasing expertise).
– Over the long term the building looks promising: the location is in demand, the area is stable, and risks are predictable.
– For those focused on maximum capital gains, entering at average or peak area levels is less justified — yields there are significantly lower.

8. Short summary

– Liquidity is high both for the building and for the area.
– Actual yield for the building (7%+) is noticeably higher than the area average.
– Careful discipline is required when selecting a specific apartment and assessing its individual features/fit-out standards.
– The availability of transaction and rental statistics confirms the validity of the calculations: the figures are read directly from DLD.