ROI analysis of apartment in Samana Hills: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the Samana Hills building is located in Al Barshaa South Third, master project Arjan. In the database the project is recorded as SAMANA HILLS, with the name fully matching the filter.

2. Analysis of transaction volume and frequency, liquidity

Over the entire period, 16 sale transactions for 2-bedroom apartments in Samana Hills have been registered, with data covering 2020 to 2023. Liquidity for 2BR units is low (on average 2–4 deals per quarter, sometimes fewer). In Al Barshaa South Third, the annual volume of apartment transactions reaches thousands of contracts, so the district’s liquidity is very high.

For rentals (DLD data), 117 contracts have been registered in the last 12 months in Samana Hills (all apartment types), which confirms solid rental demand given the relatively recent completion of the building.

3. Sale price dynamics (price per m²)

For 2-bedroom apartments in Samana Hills:

– 2020–2021: the average price per m² ranged from 9,600 to 10,700 AED/m².
– 2022: the only quarter with available data shows 8,695 AED/m².
– 2023: transactions took place in Q2 and Q3 at around 9,450–10,430 AED/m².

However, over the last 12 months there have been no registered 2BR transactions in Samana Hills, so the exact current price per m² for 2-bedroom units is not available from DLD.

Across Al Barshaa South Third (apartments):

– The average price per m² increased from 8,500–10,500 AED (2020–2021) to 13,800–15,500 AED/m² in 2023–2025.
– Over the last 12 months the district’s average price was 14,638 AED/m² (4,180 transactions).

Summary: in recent years Samana Hills 2BR units have been selling at a substantial discount to the district (30–40% cheaper), but the latest transactions date back to 2023.

4. Rental rate dynamics (rent per m²)

For the entire SAMANA HILLS project (without breakdown by unit type) over the last 12 months:

– Weighted average rent: 1,323 AED/m² per year (117 contracts).
– Historical trend: since mid-2022, rents have grown from 850–960 AED/m² to 1,300–1,350 AED/m² in 2024–2025.
– For Al Barshaa South Third: the average rent over the last 12 months is 951 AED/m² (more than 11,000 contracts), with a smooth increase from 600–700 AED/m² in 2020–2022 to 996–1,086 AED/m² in 2025–2026.

Rents in Samana Hills are currently about 40% above the district average.

5. Comparison of prices and rents, yield (ROI) calculation

– The price level for 2BR units in Samana Hills (based on the latest available data) is significantly lower than in the wider district. There is no DLD sale data for the last 12 months, so it is impossible to estimate the current market level specifically for 2BR units.
– Average rent in SAMANA HILLS: 1,323 AED/m²/year (last 12 months, project-wide), versus 951 AED/m²/year for the district.

Gross yield (ROI) for a typical investor can only be reliably calculated at district level:

– District: ROI_brutto = 951 / 14,638 ≈ 6.5% per annum.
– SAMANA HILLS: if we take historical 2BR sale prices (9,500–10,400 AED/m²) and current rents (1,323 AED/m²/year), the potential yield for legacy owners would be 11–13%, which is far above the market average — but there are no current transactions in 2024.

“Fair price” investment range calculation:
– To achieve a 7–8% ROI (based on current SAMANA HILLS rents): the investment-fair price range is 16,500–18,900 AED/m². This is above the project’s historical transaction levels.
– For the district: the range is 11,900–13,600 AED/m², which is close to current deal levels.

Since there have been no 2BR sales in SAMANA HILLS over the last 12 months, it is impossible to draw a conclusion on yield potential for new investments, although project-wide rents carry a premium to the district.

Adjusting for acquisition and running costs (7–8%): net ROI in the district will be around 6%, while in Samana Hills, based on past deal levels, it would have been higher, but at current prices such a calculation cannot be made.

6. Distribution of unit sizes and rents

Transactions and rentals in SAMANA HILLS fall within standard ranges for new projects, with 2BR sizes of 80–120 m², and all other parameters broadly in line with the district market.

7. Conclusions and outlook

– Liquidity: average for the building, high for the district; rental demand in the building is strong.
– Rents in SAMANA HILLS are above district averages, making the building attractive to tenants.
– Historical 2BR sale prices were significantly below district levels, providing excess returns to buyers who entered at those prices.
– Investors should focus on district-level pricing (14–15k AED/m²) and rents of 1,300+ AED/m²/year, targeting yields of 6–7% before all costs.

Robust rental demand supports the overall attractiveness of the building, but price upside depends on new buyer transactions, which, according to DLD, have not yet appeared in 2024.