ROI analysis of apartment in Karma: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: the Karma building is located in Wadi Al Safa 2, within the Liwan1 master project (these are the values confirmed by DLD data).
For the Karma building, for 1 bedroom (1BR) apartments, the DLD database records 30 sale transactions and no valid rental contracts for the entire observation period.

2. Liquidity and market volume

Sales:
– Over the last 5 quarters, 30 transactions for 1BR apartments in the Karma building have been recorded — this is fairly high liquidity for a new building (around 5–10 deals per quarter).
– Overall in Wadi Al Safa 2 the market is well developed, with the number of sale and lease contracts reaching tens of thousands over the past few years.
Rentals:
– For the Karma building itself, there are no 1BR rental contracts in the DLD database.
– At the Liwan1 master-project level, around 19,000 rental contracts have been signed over the last 12 months, and more than 23,000 in Wadi Al Safa 2.

3. Price per m² dynamics for the building and the area

For 1BR in Karma:
– Average price per m² over the last 12 months: 10,342 AED/m².
– Quarterly dynamics:
– 2024 Q3: 9,325 AED/m²
– 2024 Q4: 10,270 AED/m²
– 2025 Q1: 10,812 AED/m²
– 2025 Q2: 10,264 AED/m²
– 2025 Q3: 10,385 AED/m²
– There is a smooth positive trend and a fairly high price level for this segment of the area.

For Wadi Al Safa 2 (all apartments):
– Average price per m² over the last 12 months: 13,713 AED/m².
– Quarterly dynamics (latest values):
– 2024 Q1: 10,651 AED/m²
– 2024 Q2: 9,768 AED/m²
– 2024 Q3: 8,984 AED/m²
– 2024 Q4: 9,279 AED/m²
– 2025 Q1: 8,902 AED/m²
– 2025 Q2: 12,532 AED/m²
– 2025 Q3: 14,277 AED/m²
– 2025 Q4: 14,679 AED/m²
– 2026 Q1: 12,328 AED/m²
– Prices in the area show higher volatility and rapid growth recently.

Comparison: the average price in Karma is slightly below the current area benchmark, which may offer investors an entry point with upside potential.

4. Rental dynamics and rates in the area

– There are no confirmed DLD rental contracts for 1BR units in Karma.
– In the Liwan1 master project, the average annual rent per m² over the last 12 months is 721 AED/m².
– In Wadi Al Safa 2: 742 AED/m².
– Area dynamics:
– 2023 Q4: 617.6 AED/m²
– 2024 Q1: 618.5 AED/m²
– 2024 Q2: 622.1 AED/m²
– 2024 Q3: 656.9 AED/m²
– 2024 Q4: 686.4 AED/m²
– 2025 Q1: 692.3 AED/m²
– 2025 Q2: 729.9 AED/m²
– 2025 Q3: 742.0 AED/m²
– 2025 Q4: 763.4 AED/m²
– 2026 Q1: 753.5 AED/m²

Trend: rental rates in the area have been growing continuously since 2021. In 2023, rates were around 520–620 AED/m²; by mid-2025 they had already reached 730–750 AED/m².

5. ROI and fair price assessment

– There is no valid rental data for the Karma building, so ROI and investment fair value for the building itself cannot be directly assessed under the given filters.
– For Wadi Al Safa 2 (as a benchmark):
– Average gross ROI for the area = average annual rent per m² (742 AED) / average price per m² (13,713 AED) = 5.4% per annum (gross).
– Taking into account initial costs (around 7%), the effective net ROI is ≈ 5.0% per annum.
– To achieve a 7–8% annual return before costs, the fair price for an investor should be ≈ 9,278–10,600 AED/m².
– The current market level (13,713 AED/m²) is significantly above this range, which is typical for areas with rising demand and strong expectations of capital appreciation.
– With a price of around 10,340 AED/m², Karma is close to the upper boundary of the fair range for a 7–8% yield, but the actual ROI is lower due to the absence of unit-level rental contracts.

6. Overall conclusions and outlook

– Karma is a new, active building in Wadi Al Safa 2 with good transaction liquidity, but so far without registered DLD rentals.
– Prices in the building are steadily increasing, and the entry price is noticeably below the area average, which may be attractive for buyers focused on further market growth.
– If the main objective is rental income, the current area ROI does not exceed 5%, and to reach a target 7–8% return, an investor will need either a substantial discount to market prices or to rely on further rental growth.
– For a long-term investor, both the area and the project itself have price growth potential, but current profitability is driven more by capital appreciation than by rental income.
– To assess the actual yield for Karma, further accumulation of data on registered rentals is required.