ROI analysis of apartment in Azizi Riviera 39: DLD data and real deals

1. Defining the area and data structure

Actual location: According to the DLD database, the building Azizi Riviera 39 is located in the Al Merkadh area (master project Meydan One Community). This area is used further as a benchmark for comparison.

Scope and depth of information: For the sale of 2-bedroom apartments (2BR) in Azizi Riviera 39, 53 transactions have been recorded from March 2021 to date. For leasing (residential, any size, any bedroom count) in this building there are 155 contracts, of which 78 contracts were signed over the last 12 months.

2. Sales: dynamics, average prices, comparison with the area

Transaction dynamics (2BR, Azizi Riviera 39):
– In 2021 the first 2BR sales appeared — a small volume, only isolated transactions.
– In 2022–2023 there was a gradual increase in both the number of deals and the average price per square metre: from 14,700–17,300 AED/m² to the current 17,000–17,400 AED/m².
– Over the last 12 months (to date) the average sale price reached 21,982 AED/m² (5 transactions). This reflects a significant increase compared with 2021–2023.

Dynamics for Al Merkadh (2BR):
– A large, mature market, with hundreds of 2-bedroom transactions every quarter.
– In 2020–2022 average prices were in the range of 14,000–17,500 AED/m².
– In 2023–2024 a clear upward trend is visible: up to 18,000–21,000 AED/m² on average over the last 6 quarters.
– Over the last 12 months the average price in the area was 20,322 AED/m² (815 transactions). Thus, Azizi Riviera 39 is trading at roughly an 8% premium to the area average for comparable units.

3. Rentals: trends, comparison, yield calculation

In Azizi Riviera 39, 78 residential lease contracts (all apartment types) have been signed over the last 12 months, with an average annual rental rate of 1,531 AED/m² per year (data only for 2024, during active handover and the start of leasing).

Quarterly rental dynamics show confident growth: in Q3 2024 — 1,296 AED/m², in Q4 — 1,445 AED/m², and then in 2025 — 1,500–1,620 AED/m².

For comparison, in Al Merkadh over the last 12 months the average annual apartment rent was 1,524 AED/m² (9,980 contracts). Rental rates in Azizi Riviera 39 are in line with the area, and in individual 2025 contracts even show a small premium (likely due to the building’s newness and finishes).

4. ROI calculation and investment analysis

Current price and rental levels:
– Average 2BR price per m² in the building over the last 12 months: 21,982 AED/m².
– Average rent per m² in the building: 1,531 AED/m² per year.

Gross yield (ROI):
– For the building: 1,531 / 21,982 = 7.0% gross.
– For the area: 1,524 / 20,322 = 7.5% gross.

Net yield taking into account basic entry costs (≈7%):
– For the building: 7.0% / 1.07 ≈ 6.5% net.
– For the area: 7.5% / 1.07 ≈ 7.0% net.

Fair price estimate for a target yield of 7–8% per annum:
– For the building: a fair purchase range is 1,531 / 0.08 = 19,140 AED/m² to 1,531 / 0.07 = 21,871 AED/m².
– That is, the current average transaction price (21,982 AED/m²) is at the upper boundary of the investment “fair value” range. To achieve 7.5–8% per annum, purchases above 22,000 AED/m² may require individual negotiation.
– For the area: a similar fair range is 19,050–21,771 AED/m². The average market price in the area (20,322 AED/m²) delivers a standard market yield at the current level of rental rates.

5. Liquidity and outlook

Azizi Riviera 39 demonstrates very high liquidity: a strong increase in the number of transactions and a substantial volume of lease contracts even at the moment of the building’s market entry. Al Merkadh remains one of the most dynamic areas in terms of both sales and rentals (hundreds/thousands of transactions; stable demand).

Over the past 3 years the average price has increased by 30–40%. The pace slowed in 2024 due to growing supply, however rental rates continue to show a gradual increase.

Conclusion:
Azizi Riviera 39 is one of the current liquid projects in the area. Transaction prices correspond to a “fair” yield for an investor (7–7.5% gross / 6.5% net). There is little sense in targeting a deep discount to the market at the current rental level: the market is stable, and demand is supported by mass handover and move-ins in new phases. For a conservative investor it is reasonable to negotiate towards 21,000–21,500 AED/m² to achieve a 7.2–7.5% ROI. The area as a whole is in a solid “second wave” of growth: yields for this type of apartment are higher than in central districts, while the potential for value preservation over the next 3 years remains strong. This yield can be viewed as sustainable for a buy-to-let strategy.