1. Area definition and data structure
Actual location: According to DLD, the building MODELUX TOWER 1 is located in the Warsan Fourth area, within the master project International City Phase 3. This is confirmed by sales records, which clearly specify both the area and the master project for the property.
The DLD database structure allows for detailed analysis: for MODELUX TOWER 1, 79 sale transactions are recorded, providing a reliable basis for assessing market dynamics and the average price per square metre. There are no rental records directly for this building; for rental rate analysis, data at the master-project level (International City Phase 3) and the area level (Warsan Fourth) were used, where the volume of contracts is very substantial (over 44–46 thousand for the entire period).
2. Deal volume dynamics and liquidity
Quarterly transaction frequency for MODELUX TOWER 1 in 2020–2025 shows steady buyer interest: sales are recorded in almost every quarter, with particularly active periods over the last 2 years (10–11 deals in the most active quarters). This indicates high liquidity at the handover and primary market stages, as well as good information transparency for investors.
3. Dynamics of average sale price per sq.m for the building and the area
For studios (0BR) in MODELUX TOWER 1 there is a pronounced increase in the average price per square metre over the period from 2021 to 2025:
- Lowest levels in Q2–Q4 2021: 4,850–6,100 AED/m².
- Steady growth in 2022–2023: from 5,700 to ~8,000 AED/m².
- In 2024 the average level is 7,431–8,064 AED/m².
- Over the last 12 months the average price reached 9,072 AED/m².
- In 2025 (transactions with date <= current) a new peak in the average price is recorded: 9,453–9,593 AED/m² by quarter.
For Warsan Fourth across all apartments, the trend is similar, but growth was less pronounced until the last 12 months:
- In 2021–2022: 4,300–6,700 AED/m².
- In 2023, stabilisation at 6,200–7,700 AED/m².
- Over the last 12 months (to date), the area average reached 10,546 AED/m² — higher than in the building.
- In 2024–2025 prices in Warsan Fourth climbed even higher — around 10,500–11,000 AED/m² in some quarters.
This shows that in 2024 MODELUX TOWER 1 was trading slightly below the area average, but by early 2025 the gap had narrowed and the building has almost reached the average level for the area.
4. Rentals: dynamics and market level
There are no rental contracts for MODELUX TOWER 1 in the DLD database, which is common for new projects; the nearest relevant benchmarks are the master project International City Phase 3 and the Warsan Fourth area.
- At the master-project and area level, the average annual rent for all apartments is about 755–757 AED/m² over the last 12 months.
- Yearly dynamics are stable: 2021–2022 — 460–560 AED/m², and from 2023 there is a clear upward trend, with quarterly values reaching 898–903 AED/m² and above.
- The current rental level for the area and the master project is almost identical — 755–757 AED/m².
The substantial volume of contracts (tens of thousands) confirms strong rental demand in this location.
5. Comparison of building vs area prices and yield (ROI) calculation
- Average transaction price for the building over 12 months: 9,072 AED/m².
- Area price over the same period: 10,546 AED/m².
- Average rent for the area and master project: 755–757 AED/m²/year.
Accordingly, the yield calculation (gross, before expenses):
- Gross ROI for the building: 757 / 9,072 ≈ 8.3% per annum.
- Gross ROI for the area: 755 / 10,546 ≈ 7.2% per annum.
Adjustment for transaction costs (entry costs +7–8%):
- Net ROI for the building: ≈7.7–7.8% per annum (8.3% / 1.07–1.08).
- Net ROI for the area: ≈6.7–6.8% per annum (7.2% / 1.07–1.08).
This means that buying a studio in MODELUX TOWER 1 currently offers potentially higher returns compared to the area average, as the building’s average price has not yet fully caught up with the wider market.
6. Analysis of a fair price range for an investor
If an investor targets a 7–8% annual yield based on the rental market:
- Fair “investment” price range per m² for MODELUX TOWER 1 (derived from master-project rental rates):
- 7% per annum: 757 / 0.07 ≈ 10,814 AED/m²
- 8% per annum: 757 / 0.08 ≈ 9,463 AED/m²
The current 12‑month average price is 9,072 AED/m², meaning that according to DLD data the building is now trading slightly below the “fair” investment valuation for a target yield of 7–8% per annum at current rental rates. The discount to the area is about 14%, which may be temporary and linked to new supply entering the market.
7. Conclusions on liquidity and outlook
- MODELUX TOWER 1 is an asset with a transparent DLD transaction history and stable demand at 4–11 deals per quarter.
- Over the past couple of years, there has been a significant increase in the average price of new stock, and the building is rapidly catching up with the area level.
- Rental levels at the master-project and area scale are stable and support a conservative 7–8% net annual yield after transaction costs, which is attractive for an investor buying below the area average.
- Over the next 1–2 years, the building’s average price may rise to full parity with the area, after which potential returns could compress to the “core” market level (6.7–7% net).
- There are still no direct rental contracts recorded for the building; rental demand in the area is high, and vacancy risk is minimal.
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