ROI analysis of apartment in Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve: DLD data and real deals

1. Definition of the area and data structure

Actual location: According to DLD, the building Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve belongs to the Al Merkadh area and the SOBHA HARTLAND master project. The DLD database records 1,225 sale transactions and 1,209 rental contracts for this building, which allows for detailed analytics both for the building and for the wider area. The analysis focuses on 1-bedroom (1BR) apartments, and only residential units in this building and this area are considered.

2. Volume and dynamics of transactions, liquidity

Transactions for 1BR apartments in Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve have been recorded since 2020. The highest transaction volumes occurred in 2022–2024, with around 150–200 deals per year, indicating high liquidity for this class of apartments in the building and sustained interest from investor-buyers. In the wider Al Merkadh area, sales volumes are significantly higher, which further confirms the strong activity of the location.

Rental transactions are also widespread — DLD has recorded more than 1,100 leased units in this building alone, confirming stable demand from both tenants and investor-owners.

3. Dynamics of the average price per square metre

The average price per 1 m² in Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve (1BR) over the past 12 months is about AED 21,500, while in Al Merkadh over the same period the average price for 1BR apartments is roughly AED 20,750 per m². The building shows a premium over the area of around 4%, reflecting demand, quality and the relative newness of the project.

Quarterly dynamics show a gradual increase in the average price from AED 18,500–19,500/m² in 2021–2023 to AED 21,000–22,000/m² by mid‑2024. At the area level, growth rates are comparable, but absolute values remain slightly lower.

4. Dynamics and level of rent per square metre

According to DLD, the average rental rate for the building over the past 12 months is AED 1,504/m²/year. For Al Merkadh this figure is lower — about AED 1,403/m²/year. Quarterly data show some moderation of rates in 2023 with a gradual increase in 2024: in Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve quarterly values reached 1,600+ AED/m²/year.

Conclusion: the building is consistently leased at rates above area benchmarks, confirming its attractiveness for tenants and a stable rental cash flow for investors.

5. Building vs area comparison, 12‑month averages

– Average purchase price per m² (building): ~AED 21,500
– Average purchase price per m² (area): ~AED 20,750
– Average annual rent per m² (building): ~AED 1,504
– Average annual rent per m² (area): ~AED 1,403

Thus, the building is 3–7% more expensive than the area on both key metrics, which is justified by strong demand and the asset’s characteristics.

6. Gross and net yield (ROI) for an investor

– Annual gross yield for the building: 1,504 / 21,500 = 7.0%
– Annual gross yield for the area: 1,403 / 20,750 = 6.8%

Taking into account typical transactional and additional entry costs (around 7–8%), the actual (net) yield may be adjusted to about 6.5–6.6% for the building and 6.3–6.4% for the area (i.e. roughly 0.5–0.7 percentage points below gross).

7. Fair price range for a 7–8% yield

– For the building: for a 7–8% yield, the “investment fair” price range per m² is AED 18,800 to 21,500/m².
– For the area: for a 7–8% yield, the range is AED 17,540 to 20,040/m².

Current average transaction prices are close to the upper boundary of this range, meaning that to confidently achieve 7.5–8% per annum an investor will need either to buy with a small discount or to optimise the unit for higher rent (for example, furnishing, short‑term rentals, etc.).

8. Forecast and conclusions

Given current dynamics and sustained high rental demand, both demand and prices in Sobha Creek Vistas Reserve remain stable. The building shows above‑average liquidity versus the area in both sales and rentals; the price and rent premium over the area is explained by its newness, brand and quality of operation.

Based on DLD data, the potential average net yield over a 3–5 year horizon is 6.5–7.0% after all expenses, which makes the building attractive, especially if entry is at a price closer to the area benchmark. A 3–4% premium to the area is justified if the strategy is long‑term capital growth and strong tenant retention.