ROI analysis of apartment in Island Park II: DLD data and real deals


1. Defining the area and data structure

Actual location: according to DLD, Island Park II is located in the Al Khairan First area, within the Dubai Creek Harbour master project. The analysis uses only actual DLD transactions, property type — 2-bedroom apartment (2BR).


2. What is known about the building and area market

The transaction dynamics for the building over the past 3 years show regular activity: Island Park II has recorded at least 159 transactions for 2-bedroom apartments, with a steady frequency and consistently rising price trend. Over the past 12 months, 31 transactions have been completed.

In the Al Khairan First area, activity for 2BR apartments is very high — on average more than 1,800 sales transactions per year for comparable units, and over 4,400 rental contracts per year, which indicates high liquidity and stable demand.


3. Purchase price dynamics

Over the past 4 years, the average price per m² for 2BR transactions in Island Park II has been growing:

– In 2022 the average price started from 17,670–17,770 AED/m², in 2023 it reached 19,880–22,100 AED/m², and in 2024 it exceeds 22,700–23,300 AED/m² by quarter.
– Over the past 12 months, the DLD-based average purchase price in the building is 19,700 AED/m² (only actual 2BR transactions are considered).

The area market has been growing even faster: the average price per m² for 2BR in Al Khairan First over the past 12 months is 24,500 AED/m². Over the last two years the area has outpaced the building in growth rates — in 2022–2023 the average area increase was about 20–25%, while Island Park II has been gradually “catching up” with the market due to deferred registrations of off-plan contracts (typical for new projects).


4. Rental market dynamics

For the building itself and the Island Park II master project there are no valid DLD rental contracts either for the last year or for the past 4 years under the 2BR filters. The entire database of rental contracts at this address and master project in DLD is empty for 2-bedroom apartments, which is typical for new off-plan projects where mass handovers have only recently started.

However, in Al Khairan First the rental volume is very high: more than 4,400 contracts per year for all apartments, and the dynamics of average rent per m² from 2022 to date are as follows:

– 2022 — 930–880 AED/m² per year,
– 2023 — 1,200–1,140 AED/m²,
– 2024 (last 12 months) — the average annual rental rate in the area has grown to 1,448 AED/m².

Important: the average rate is calculated for all residential apartments in the area, as there is not enough DLD data specifically for 2BR and Island Park II.


5. Comparison of current price levels and yields

Current average purchase price in the building (2BR, last 12 months): 19,700 AED/m².
Current average price of a comparable apartment in the area: 24,500 AED/m².
Average rent in the area (all apartments, 12 months): 1,449 AED/m² per year.

ROI for the building cannot be calculated — there is no rental data specifically for Island Park II or for 2BR units in the master project.
ROI for the area (based on average price and rent per m²):

– Gross area ROI: 1,449 / 24,502 ≈ 5.9% per annum.
– Taking into account entry costs (≈7%): net yield ≈ 5.5–5.7% per annum.
– To reach a target yield of 7–8% per annum, the purchase price should be in the range of 18,000–20,500 AED/m² (calculation: fair price = rent / 0.08 … rent / 0.07).

The actual average price in the building is currently below the area average — Island Park II appears slightly “cheaper than the market” compared with the wider Al Khairan First area.


6. Liquidity, demand structure and conclusions

Island Park II and its location in Dubai Creek Harbour (Al Khairan First) show excellent liquidity: thousands of transactions in the area, strong deal dynamics, and a high frequency of new rental contracts (several thousand per year).

In terms of market cycles, Island Park II is gaining momentum as a newly operational project — many transactions have only just been registered, and new rentals will start to accumulate over the coming year.

Buying at the current price (19,700 AED/m²) looks moderately attractive compared with the area (market benchmark 24,500 AED/m²), but using the area yield (~6%) as a reference should be done cautiously — until confirmed rental statistics for Island Park II appear, temporary underperformance in actual leasing is possible.

3–5 year outlook: the area is demonstrating confident price growth with high liquidity, and Island Park II is expected to catch up with area-level rental yields as the market matures. For an investor, this is a reasonable entry level and a good position to achieve a highly liquid income stream once the rental market for the project stabilises.

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